Update on Challenged Ballots from the 11/09/2023 state matchback

Some data I extracted from the 11/09/2023 state matchback is below. Many challenged ballots won't be 'cured' by November 27th. For example, ~11K "Signature Does Not Match" voters may well be 'disenfranchised' this election. This happens every election. Please check your ballot status at: https://voter.votewa.gov . If your ballot is rejected, please follow your local election department instructions and check https://voter.votewa.gov to make sure your ballot was 'cured' by Nov. 27, 2023 (certification). All this data is current as of 11/09/2023. This data will change as ballot tabulation and ballot challenges increase. Some links for more election information is posted far below. The R 3.4 code I  wrote for this is here.

Some Ballot Status Report Data for November 10th, 2022: The LD 42 races are still tight.

Below is data analysis from the BSR for November 10th. Clearly some of the local 42nd LD races are still close. Ballot Chases may be mandatory for each party.  For November 10th Ballot Status Report Data from https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/research/2022-general-election.aspx;   The current LD 42nd reported Shewmake - Sefzik  difference (947) is less than the current all County rejected ballot total (1075). 

Some Ballot Status Report Data for November 9th, 2022: The LD 42 races are tight.

Below is some data analysis from the BSR for November 9th. Clearly the local 42nd races will be close. Ballot Chases may be mandatory for each party. BSR fields are far below. For November 8th Ballot Status Report Data from State: https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/research/2022-general-election.aspx 7:09 AM 11/10/2022

Some Ballot Status Report Data for November 8th, 2022: The LD 42 races are tight

Below is some data analysis from the BSR for November 8th. Clearly the local 42nd races will be close. Ballot Chases may be mandatory for each party. BSR fields are far below. For November 8th Ballot Status Report Data from State: https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/research/2022-general-election.aspx

9:18 AM 11/9/2022

Is Whatcom County being deluged with Californians?

 Are we being deluged by big bucks Californians? Selling their Bay Area  homes for bank to come buy their escape from California in Whatcom County? Well...maybe not quite.  But the surging property market in Whatcom County  might allow you to think so inspired by articles like this on those leaving California: https://www.abc10.com/article/news/local/california/653000-people-leave-california/103-f3c88956-791a-43ca-bc8f-bcbaa76cf790  This next Census article refers to recent updates on state migration patterns: https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/geographic-mobility/state-to-state-migration.html

GE WA 11/24/2020 Ballot Return Status Report for Gender, Age , Date Returned

Data and charts on Age and Gender for Returned Ballots for the WA GE 2020 below the break. Click to enlarge the charts.

GE WA 11/18/2020 Ballot Return Status Report

November 24th is the county certification of the November general election. There are still 35,682 with status rejected (mostly Signature issues) in the November 18th matchbacks. 807 of these rejected ballots are in Whatcom County. 2,226 ballots in WA were "Too Late" to be tabulated.

Voters should visit https://voter.votewa.gov and check their ballot status. For ballot status other than "Accepted", voters may want to contact or visit their county election department websites found at https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/auditors.  For Whatcom County, you can visit: https://www.whatcomcounty.us/1732/Current-Election for Whatcom County Election department contact information. 

GE WA 11/05/2020 Ballot Return Status Report

Key numbers above the break. More details after the break:

[1] "All Ballots:"

[1] 4,111,915

No Previous historical record of Voting in VRDB before 11/2020:

20:       <NA>  456,352 # No "LastVoted"

Voters by Last Voted Dates:

               

Category               "Total.Ballots" "PCT.Total.Ballots"

LastVoted2019orLater   "3109974.0"     "75.6"        

LastVoted2018orEarlier "545591.0"      "13.3"         

LastVoted2016orEarlier "230817.0"      "5.6"         

LastVoted2012orEarlier "57964.0"       "1.4" 

[1] "By Challenge Reason: Top 8"

                    ChallengeReason        N

 1:                 Not Challenged   4058596

 2:         Signature Does Not Match   36860

 3:                         Unsigned    7016

 4:                             HOLD    2048

 5:                           Review    1889

 6:              Ballot Style Change    1687

 7:             No Signature on File    1037

 8:                 Other than Voter     615

Rejected Ballots / All Ballots

round(53328/4111915,4) * 100

[1] 1.3 percent of all ballots currently rejected

GE 11/04/2020 Ballot Return Status Report

Key numbers above the break. More details after the break:

[1] "All Ballots:"

[1] 4069665

No Previous historical record of Voting in VRDB before 11/2020:

20:       <NA>  440804 # No "LastVoted"

Voters by Last Voted Dates:

                       [,1]            [,2]               

Category               "Total.Ballots" "PCT.Total.Ballots"

LastVoted2019orLater   "3094826"       "76"          

LastVoted2018orEarlier "534037.0"      "13.1"         

LastVoted2016orEarlier "224900.0"      "5.5"         

LastVoted2012orEarlier "56505.0"       "1.4"  

[1] "By Challenge Reason: Top 7"

                     ChallengeReason       N

 1:                Not Challenged    4011243

 2:         Signature Does Not Match   35128

 3:                           Review    8949

 4:                         Unsigned    6519

 5:                             HOLD    2540

 6:              Ballot Style Change    1586

 7:             No Signature on File    1143

Rejected Ballots / All Ballots

round(58434/4011243,4) * 100

[1] 1.46 percent of all ballots currently rejected

1,586 Challenged Ballots in Whatcom County as of 11/03/2020

Voters should visit https://voter.votewa.gov and check their ballot status. For ballot status other than "Accepted", voters may want to contact or visit their county election department websites found at https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/auditors.  For Whatcom County, you can visit: https://www.whatcomcounty.us/1732/Current-Election for Whatcom County Election department contact information. 

GE 11/03/2020 Ballot Return Status Report

For 11/03/2020, over 3.8M ballots are returned in WA with 47,518 challenged. Almost 29,904 of these challenges are signature not matching . Another 5,857  are missing signatures. Voters should visit https://voter.votewa.gov and check their ballot status. For ballot status other than "Accepted", voters may want to contact or visit their county election department websites found at https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/auditors. 

For turnout, please see https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/research/ballot-return-statistics.aspx  12% or 453,550 of all returned ballots were by voters who last voted in 2018 or earlier. 365,340 of all returned ballots were by voters whose 'LastVoted' field is "NA". These numbers suggest an increasing number of 'first time' and 'low propensity' voters in this very high turnout election.  And that's significant since it suggests that this group will play an important part in the election:

round((453550 + 365340) / 3782114,3) * 100 =

21.7 percent of returned ballots are potentially from 'low propensity' or 'first time' voters.

General election return ballot data can be found: https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/research/2020-general-election.aspx .

GE 11/02/2020 Ballot Return Status Report

11/02/2020 without comment below. One matchback will be  returned before results Tuesday night. Matchbacks will continue to certification.

GE 10/31/2020 Ballot Return Status Report

 10/31/2020 without comment below. Two more matchbacks are returned before results tonight and Tuesday night, although the matchbacks will continue to certification.

GE 10/30/2020 Ballot Return Status Report

For 10/30/2020, over 3.15M ballots are returned in WA with 37,696 challenged. Almost 24,863 of these challenges are signature not matching . Another 5,141  are missing signatures. Voters should visit https://voter.votewa.gov and check their ballot status. For ballot status other than "Accepted", voters may want to contact or visit their county election department websites found at https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/auditors. 

For turnout, please see https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/research/ballot-return-statistics.aspx  10.1 % or 318,444 of all returned ballots were by voters who last voted in 2018 or earlier. 251,000 of all returned ballots were by voters whose 'LastVoted' field is "NA". These numbers suggest an increasing number of 'first time' and 'low propensity' voters in this very high turnout election.  And that's significant since it suggests that by Tuesday this group may well be 20% or more of the electorate:

round((318444 + 251000) / 3155177,3) * 100 =

18 percent of returned ballots are potentially from 'low propensity' or 'first time' voters.

General election return ballot data can be found: https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/research/2020-general-election.aspx .  

GE 10/29/2020 Ballot Return Status Report

 For 10/29/2020, over 2.95M ballots are returned in WA with 35,658 challenged. Almost 22,973 of these challenges are signature not matching . Another ~5K are missing signatures. Voters should visit https://voter.votewa.gov and check their ballot status. For ballot status other than "Accepted", voters may want to contact or visit their county election department websites found at https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/auditors. 

King county leads the the top five counties in turnout percentage at 62.8% Please see https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/research/ballot-return-statistics.aspx   9.6% of all returned ballots were by voters who last voted in 2018 or earlier. 223,315 of all returned ballots were by voters whose 'LastVoted' field is "NA". These numbers suggest an increasing number of 'first time' and 'low propensity' voters in this very high turnout election. General election return ballot data can be found: https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/research/2020-general-election.aspx .  

GE 10/28/2020 Ballot Return Status Report

For 10/28/2020, over 2.75M ballots are returned in WA with 34,217 challenged. Almost 21,563 of these challenges are signature not matching . Another ~5K are missing signatures. Voters should visit https://voter.votewa.gov and check their ballot status. For ballot status other than "Accepted", voters may want to contact or visit their county election department websites found at https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/auditors. 

King county leads the the top five counties in turnout percentage at 56.3% Please See https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/research/ballot-return-statistics.aspx    9.2% of all returned ballots were by voters who last voted in 2018 or earlier. 197,407 of all returned ballots were by voters whose 'LastVoted' field is "NA". These numbers suggest an increasing number of 'first time' and 'low propensity' voters in this very high turnout election. General election return ballot data can be found: https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/research/2020-general-election.aspx . 

Based on past elections performances, a reasonable prediction for total votes would be 250K for the next two days then ~400K/day for the next 5 days. However, such a prediction would result in 5.25M returned ballots. Current total voters for this election are 4,866,924 although registrations will continue through election. 

GE 2020 10/27 Ballot Return Status Report

For 10/27/2020, over 2.56M ballots returned with ~32K challenged ballots in WA. Almost 19K of these ballots are signature matching challenges. Another ~5K are missing signatures. Voters will should visit https://voter.votewa.gov and check their ballot status. For ballot status other than "Accepted", voters may want to contact or visit their county election department websites found at https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/auditors .

King county leads the the top five counties in turnout percentage at 53% based on October 7 VRDB registrants.  However King's current turnout percentage is actually 56% based on the latest registration data (Please See https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/research/ballot-return-statistics.aspx ) This would suggest increases from October first time voter registration and/or reactivations.    8.7% of all returned ballots were by voters who last voted in 2018 or earlier. 174,176 of all returned ballots were by voters whose 'LastVoted' field is "NA" suggesting an increasing number of 'first time' voters in this election. General election return ballot data can be found: https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/research/2020-general-election.aspx .  Based on past elections performances, a reasonable prediction for total votes would be 250K for the next two days then ~500K/day for the next 5 days. However, such a prediction would result in 5.25M returned ballots. Current total voters for this election are 4,866,924, although registrations will continue through election. Regardless of this comment, turnout will likely be record setting for every county in WA.

GE.Matchback code now in my Github: https://github.com/rferrisx/GE.Matchback.Analysis/blob/main/BallotReturnAnalysis.r Use at your own risk.

GE 2020 10/26 Ballot Return Status Report

10/26 Ballot Statistics Return

Over 2.2M ballots returned with ~29K challenged ballots. Almost 16K of these challenged are signature matching challenges.  Spokane leads the the top five counties in turnout percentage at 51% however four of the top five counties (SP, KI, SN,CR) are approaching 50% turnout. PI is last in that list with 38% turnout.  8.1% of all returned ballots were by voters who last voted in 2018 or earlier. 141,464 of all returned ballots were by voters who have no 'LastVoted' field suggesting an increasing number of 'first time' voters in this election.

GE 2020 Ballot Return Status 10/24/2020 :

10/24 Ballot Statistics Return
Over 2M ballots returned. ~27K challenges. Spokane leads the the top five counties in turnout percentage. 7.6% of all returned ballots were by voters who last voted in 2018 or earlier.

WA 2020 General Election Ballot Return Data Page 10/20/2020 : 10/23/2020

This is a ballot return data analysis page for WA 2020 General election. I will compile as many aggregations as possible as sequential posting until 'Election Results' are returned. See https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/research/ for more information. Beware the smaller fonts for tables.  'Ballot Statistics' data comes from:

• https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/research/ballot-return-statistics.aspx
• https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/research/2020-general-election.aspx

GE2020: Four Charts for Whatcom County

These charts all aggregate gender by age group voting patterns in Whatcom County. The top chart is from October 2020 VRDB data. A non empty 'LastVoted' field simply means there is some history of electoral participation for that voter. The other three charts come from WA State elections voter participation data: Whatcom GE 2016, Presidential Primary 2020, Primary2020. Click on the charts to enlarge. There are several inferences one can make for Whatcom County and perhaps the nation by looking at these charts:

(1) Women register to vote more than men. But the dynamic I think that is really important is that women vote at a higher percentage of their registration than men. Disinterested, non voting men are thus a large target group. The 'older' part of that disinterested group of men (45 years of age or greater) will vote substantially more in Presidential general elections. That may help explain DJT's 2016 victory.

(2) 'Older voters' (45 years of age or greater) bring a more significant vote by volume and by registration to most elections. In all elections, this group of 'older voters' outperforms those that are younger both by volume and percentage turnout of registered voters per age group.

(3) Presidential general elections increase turnout even over Presidential primaries themselves and over Presidential election year primaries. Many who wouldn't cast a ballot otherwise vote in a Presidential general election. This increased turnout by low propensity voters probably creates unpredictable losses and victories during Presidential general election years.

(4) The number of active voters 45 and over who have not voted in any election is surprisingly small. 18 - 34 years of age are probably more prone to leaving ballots on their nightstand. But in fairness, the mobility of those ages probably produces many new first time voters. Given those generation's predilection for liberalism/activism, it is probably a provable inference that many of those lost votes are Democrats.

 Click on the charts to enlarge.

Independent Expenditures, Organizational and Individual contributions by Legislative District as of 10.13.2020

I find $30M in Independent Expenditures (ICE) and Organizational plus Individual contributions for all WA 2020 statehouse (representative and senate) elections as of 10.13.2020. Probably more to come! Full list below the break. Click to enlarge the chart:

The 42nd LD race for November 2020 in three charts

Provocative and timely data on what will be a razor thin series of margins in the competitive 42nd LD:

ratio =  JenniferSefzik/(JenniferSefzik + SharonShewmake)

• 20 'purple' precincts with a ratio between .45, .559
• 45 'blue' precincts with a ratio between 0, .449
• 56 'red' precincts with a ratio between .56, 1

• No.Party =  <NA> Not Voted in Presidential Primary
• Republican = Selected Republican preferred party in Presidential Primary
• Democrat = Selected Democrat preferred party in Presidential Primary

Tables and charts below. Click to enlarge the charts!