For 10/27/2020, over 2.56M ballots returned with ~32K challenged ballots in WA. Almost 19K of these ballots are signature matching challenges. Another ~5K are missing signatures. Voters will should visit https://voter.votewa.gov and check their ballot status. For ballot status other than "Accepted", voters may want to contact or visit their county election department websites found at https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/auditors .
King county leads the the top five counties in turnout percentage at 53% based on October 7 VRDB registrants. However King's current turnout percentage is actually 56% based on the latest registration data (Please See https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/research/ballot-return-statistics.aspx ) This would suggest increases from October first time voter registration and/or reactivations. 8.7% of all returned ballots were by voters who last voted in 2018 or earlier. 174,176 of all returned ballots were by voters whose 'LastVoted' field is "NA" suggesting an increasing number of 'first time' voters in this election. General election return ballot data can be found: https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/research/2020-general-election.aspx . Based on past elections performances, a reasonable prediction for total votes would be 250K for the next two days then ~500K/day for the next 5 days. However, such a prediction would result in 5.25M returned ballots. Current total voters for this election are 4,866,924, although registrations will continue through election. Regardless of this comment, turnout will likely be record setting for every county in WA.
GE.Matchback code now in my Github: https://github.com/rferrisx/GE.Matchback.Analysis/blob/main/BallotReturnAnalysis.r Use at your own risk.
[1] "All Ballots:"
[1] 2560531
[1] "All Status Returns by County:"
County N
1: Adams 3505
2: Asotin 7404
3: Benton 62583
4: Chelan 26631
5: Clallam 32620
6: Clark 158180
7: Columbia 1776
8: Cowlitz 36747
9: Douglas 12249
10: Ferry 3165
11: Franklin 18397
12: Garfield 880
13: Grant 19336
14: Grays Harbor 22694
15: Island 36772
16: Jefferson 18702
17: King 801637
18: Kitsap 106477
19: Kittitas 16006
20: Klickitat 5677
21: Lewis 30910
22: Lincoln 4138
23: Mason 24832
24: Okanogan 11110
25: Pacific 9974
26: Pend Oreille 5750
27: Pierce 264087
28: San Juan 6552
29: Skagit 35155
30: Skamania 4371
31: Snohomish 264934
32: Spokane 198813
33: Stevens 15807
34: Thurston 116522
35: Wahkiakum 1298
36: Walla Walla 15174
37: Whatcom 92535
38: Whitman 11713
39: Yakima 55418
County N
[1] "By Return Status:"
BallotStatus N
1: Accepted 2444417
2: Received 83556
3: Rejected 32558
[1] "By Challenge Reason:"
ChallengeReason N
1: 2528008
2: Signature Does Not Match 18845
3: Unsigned 4810
4: Review 4383
5: HOLD 1359
6: Ballot Style Change 901
7: Other than Voter 542
8: Hold 345
9: No Signature on File 252
10: ID Required 244
11: Federal Write-In Absentee Ballot 198
12: Id Required 156
13: Other Than Voter 103
14: Voter Name Change 81
15: Deceased 68
16: Canvassing Board 60
17: Witness Signature Missing 53
18: Marked Moved 46
19: No Signature On File 34
20: Empty Envelope 24
21: Power of Attorney 17
22: Too Late 1
23: Invalid 1
ChallengeReason N
[1] "By Ballot Status by County with Rejected PCT Rejected/(Received + Accepted) * 100"
County Accepted Received Rejected RejectPCT
1: Adams 3433 0 72 2.10
2: Asotin 7260 0 144 1.98
3: Benton 60830 887 866 1.40
4: Chelan 26528 0 103 0.39
5: Clallam 23414 8661 545 1.70
6: Clark 151122 5446 1612 1.03
7: Columbia 1770 0 6 0.34
8: Cowlitz 35104 1445 198 0.54
9: Douglas 12198 0 51 0.42
10: Ferry 3151 0 14 0.44
11: Franklin 17953 0 444 2.47
12: Garfield 877 0 3 0.34
13: Grant 19236 0 100 0.52
14: Grays Harbor 22287 17 390 1.75
15: Island 34779 1569 424 1.17
16: Jefferson 18602 0 100 0.54
17: King 774590 15739 11308 1.43
18: Kitsap 100813 2877 2787 2.69
19: Kittitas 15710 0 296 1.88
20: Klickitat 5637 0 40 0.71
21: Lewis 30665 0 245 0.80
22: Lincoln 4090 0 48 1.17
23: Mason 24541 0 291 1.19
24: Okanogan 10742 0 368 3.43
25: Pacific 9870 0 104 1.05
26: Pend Oreille 5732 0 18 0.31
27: Pierce 247185 14480 2422 0.93
28: San Juan 6518 0 34 0.52
29: Skagit 34849 0 306 0.88
30: Skamania 4287 0 84 1.96
31: Snohomish 243640 18845 2449 0.93
32: Spokane 190034 5871 2908 1.48
33: Stevens 12482 3132 193 1.24
34: Thurston 111321 3535 1666 1.45
35: Wahkiakum 1256 0 42 3.34
36: Walla Walla 15076 0 98 0.65
37: Whatcom 90391 1052 1092 1.19
38: Whitman 11466 0 247 2.15
39: Yakima 54978 0 440 0.80
County Accepted Received Rejected RejectPCT
[1] "Some Top Challenge Returns by County:"
County Accepted.Returned SignatureDoesNotMatch Review Unsigned HOLD IDRequired OtherthanVoter Hold
1: Adams 3433 65 0 5 0 0 0 0
2: Asotin 7260 122 0 14 1 1 1 0
3: Benton 61717 580 2 212 8 6 32 0
4: Chelan 26528 63 0 36 0 1 0 0
5: Clallam 32076 408 4 88 12 10 15 0
6: Clark 156568 1010 218 185 154 5 7 0
7: Columbia 1770 3 0 3 0 0 0 0
8: Cowlitz 36549 121 19 37 3 1 6 0
9: Douglas 12198 22 1 18 10 0 0 0
10: Ferry 3151 8 0 1 3 0 0 0
11: Franklin 17953 318 2 64 38 1 0 0
12: Garfield 877 3 0 0 0 0 0 0
13: Grant 19236 84 1 15 0 0 0 0
14: Grays Harbor 22304 274 0 83 29 2 0 0
15: Island 36348 192 3 111 78 12 24 0
16: Jefferson 18602 36 1 45 13 0 3 0
17: King 790329 6962 223 2443 132 31 40 169
18: Kitsap 103691 654 1942 57 77 6 5 3
19: Kittitas 15710 183 1 89 17 4 0 0
20: Klickitat 5637 27 0 13 0 0 0 0
21: Lewis 30665 194 0 36 5 0 9 0
22: Lincoln 4090 35 0 3 10 0 0 0
23: Mason 24541 210 0 26 23 3 0 0
24: Okanogan 10742 317 0 14 17 4 0 0
25: Pacific 9870 80 0 24 0 0 0 0
26: Pend Oreille 5732 10 0 8 0 0 0 0
27: Pierce 261666 1763 71 186 14 14 183 0
28: San Juan 6518 22 0 8 1 3 0 0
29: Skagit 34849 197 0 96 0 1 12 0
30: Skamania 4287 21 0 11 50 0 0 0
31: Snohomish 262485 2150 9 177 33 1 43 0
32: Spokane 195936 812 1724 188 24 56 13 0
33: Stevens 15614 97 1 11 62 11 8 0
34: Thurston 114857 754 8 125 428 6 75 173
35: Wahkiakum 1256 41 0 1 0 0 0 0
36: Walla Walla 15076 48 0 30 15 1 2 0
37: Whatcom 91443 679 5 202 10 44 64 0
38: Whitman 11466 199 0 11 34 2 0 0
39: Yakima 54978 81 148 134 58 18 0 0
County Accepted.Returned SignatureDoesNotMatch Review Unsigned HOLD IDRequired OtherthanVoter Hold
[1] "Merges all status (Active or not) with October 7th VRDB with current return ballot status list. Thus more current registrations are not part of the calculus here. Current larger totals could indicate later October registrations/reactivations. See https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/research/ballot-return-statistics.aspx "
[1] "Top 5 Counties by Turnout Pct"
CountyCode sumBallotsRet sumOctoberActive TO.pct
1: KI 793862 1498936 53.0
2: SP 197378 378478 52.2
3: SN 263360 546288 48.2
4: CR 156754 345142 45.4
5: PI 261622 603247 43.4
[1] "Top 10 Counties by Turnout Pct"
CountyCode sumBallotsRet sumOctoberActive TO.pct
1: WM 91976 166886 55.1
2: TH 115671 213831 54.1
3: KI 793862 1498936 53.0
4: KP 105684 200699 52.7
5: SP 197378 378478 52.2
6: SN 263360 546288 48.2
7: BE 62112 131889 47.1
8: CR 156754 345142 45.4
9: PI 261622 603247 43.4
10: YA 55060 132689 41.5
[1] "Blue vs. Red County Totals. Use 2018 Senate Race as county (blue/red) marker"
[1] "See https://komonews.com/news/local/washington-state-election-results-interactive-map for D & R WA county divisions"
Categories Count
1: 2020GE.BlueCountyBallots 1955860
2: 2020GE.NotBlueCountyBallots 604671
3: OctVDB.Blue.Active 3576774
4: OctVDB.NotBlue.Active 1176694
[1] "Last Voted Profile of Ballots to inference low propensity voter participation:"
LastVoted N
1: 2020-11-03 10447
2: 2020-08-04 1789151
3: 2020-04-28 2143
4: 2020-03-10 252588
5: 2020-02-11 24463
6: 2019-11-05 62566
7: 2019-08-06 10979
8: 2019-04-23 2092
9: 2019-02-12 8168
10: 2018-11-06 121315
11: 2018-08-07 3546
12: 2018-02-13 2929
13: 2017-11-07 3299
14: 2017-08-01 1725
15: 2016-11-08 55704
16: 2016-05-24 2455
17: 2014-11-04 2062
18: 2012-11-06 11383
19: 2008-11-04 3475
20: <NA> 174176 # no previous LastVoted field
[,1] [,2]
Category "Total.Ballots" "PCT.Total.Ballots"
LastVoted2019orLater "2162597.0" "84.5"
LastVoted2018orEarlier "223759.0" "8.7"
LastVoted2016orEarlier "88351.0" "3.5"
LastVoted2012orEarlier "21817.0" "0.9"
[1] "Top 20 aggregate counts for County,City,Zip,c(City,Zip),c(County,Zip)."
County N City N Zip N City Zip N County Zip N
1: King 801637 SEATTLE 313839 98115 25810 SEATTLE 98115 25810 King 98115 25700
2: Snohomish 264934 SPOKANE 111468 98103 24928 SEATTLE 98103 24925 King 98103 24843
3: Pierce 264087 VANCOUVER 105355 99208 22099 SPOKANE 99208 22097 Spokane 99208 22067
4: Spokane 198813 TACOMA 82661 98012 21168 REDMOND 98052 20567 Snohomish 98012 21104
5: Clark 158180 OLYMPIA 65622 98052 20577 BELLINGHAM 98225 19646 King 98052 20536
6: Thurston 116522 BELLINGHAM 54279 98225 19656 KIRKLAND 98034 18012 Whatcom 98225 19425
7: Kitsap 106477 EVERETT 46294 98133 19358 SEATTLE 98117 17974 King 98133 19291
8: Whatcom 92535 BELLEVUE 46033 98501 18842 VANCOUVER 98682 17718 Thurston 98501 18798
9: Benton 62583 RENTON 44307 98034 18015 EVERETT 98208 17539 King 98034 17958
10: Yakima 55418 PUYALLUP 39793 98117 17974 BELLINGHAM 98226 17433 King 98117 17921
11: Island 36772 KENT 36509 98682 17724 SEATTLE 98125 17038 Clark 98682 17703
12: Cowlitz 36747 SPOKANE VALLEY 35722 98208 17547 SEATTLE 98118 16997 Snohomish 98208 17502
13: Skagit 35155 BOTHELL 35490 98226 17435 SEATTLE 98122 16929 Whatcom 98226 17393
14: Clallam 32620 KIRKLAND 34065 98125 17042 LONGVIEW 98632 16408 King 98125 16990
15: Lewis 30910 YAKIMA 32854 98118 17000 PASCO 99301 15946 King 98118 16973
16: Chelan 26631 REDMOND 29939 98122 16933 LAKE STEVENS 98258 15783 King 98122 16852
17: Mason 24832 AUBURN 29921 16832 KIRKLAND 98033 15701 King 98042 16524
18: Grays Harbor 22694 LYNNWOOD 29921 98042 16552 OLYMPIA 98501 15533 Cowlitz 98632 16387
19: Grant 19336 BREMERTON 28327 98391 16433 EDMONDS 98026 15361 Pierce 98391 16382
20: Jefferson 18702 KENNEWICK 27803 98632 16416 SPOKANE 99205 15257 Franklin 99301 15863
No comments:
Post a Comment