For 10/28/2020, over 2.75M ballots are returned in WA with 34,217 challenged. Almost 21,563 of these challenges are signature not matching . Another ~5K are missing signatures. Voters should visit https://voter.votewa.gov and check their ballot status. For ballot status other than "Accepted", voters may want to contact or visit their county election department websites found at https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/auditors.
King county leads the the top five counties in turnout percentage at 56.3% Please See https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/research/ballot-return-statistics.aspx 9.2% of all returned ballots were by voters who last voted in 2018 or earlier. 197,407 of all returned ballots were by voters whose 'LastVoted' field is "NA". These numbers suggest an increasing number of 'first time' and 'low propensity' voters in this very high turnout election. General election return ballot data can be found: https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/research/2020-general-election.aspx .
Based on past elections performances, a reasonable prediction for total votes would be 250K for the next two days then ~400K/day for the next 5 days. However, such a prediction would result in 5.25M returned ballots. Current total voters for this election are 4,866,924 although registrations will continue through election.
[1] "All Ballots:"
[1] 2759806
[1] "All Status Returns by County:"
County N
1: Adams 3730
2: Asotin 8067
3: Benton 68405
4: Chelan 30096
5: Clallam 34094
6: Clark 173611
7: Columbia 1889
8: Cowlitz 40298
9: Douglas 14117
10: Ferry 3387
11: Franklin 20280
12: Garfield 959
13: Grant 23088
14: Grays Harbor 25417
15: Island 40060
16: Jefferson 19684
17: King 833053
18: Kitsap 111525
19: Kittitas 17250
20: Klickitat 7027
21: Lewis 32693
22: Lincoln 4792
23: Mason 26796
24: Okanogan 12948
25: Pacific 10530
26: Pend Oreille 6194
27: Pierce 296068
28: San Juan 7962
29: Skagit 40209
30: Skamania 4929
31: Snohomish 290402
32: Spokane 212557
33: Stevens 17387
34: Thurston 123479
35: Wahkiakum 2022
36: Walla Walla 19536
37: Whatcom 99606
38: Whitman 13247
39: Yakima 62412
County N
[1] "By Return Status:"
BallotStatus N
1: Accepted 2663158
2: Received 62431
3: Rejected 34217
[1] "By Challenge Reason:"
ChallengeReason N
1: 2725623
2: Signature Does Not Match 21563
3: Unsigned 4812
4: Review 3003
5: HOLD 1416
6: Ballot Style Change 1089
7: Other than Voter 626
8: Hold 336
9: No Signature on File 286
10: ID Required 234
11: Federal Write-In Absentee Ballot 196
12: Id Required 172
13: Other Than Voter 97
14: Canvassing Board 84
15: Deceased 80
16: Witness Signature Missing 53
17: Marked Moved 46
18: Voter Name Change 31
19: Empty Envelope 28
20: No Signature On File 19
21: Power of Attorney 10
22: Invalid 1
23: Too Late 1
ChallengeReason N
[1] "By Ballot Status by County with Rejected PCT Rejected/(Received + Accepted) * 100"
County Accepted Received Rejected RejectPCT
1: Adams 3655 0 75 2.05
2: Asotin 7921 0 146 1.84
3: Benton 67143 289 973 1.44
4: Chelan 29967 0 129 0.43
5: Clallam 30083 3371 640 1.91
6: Clark 165677 6056 1878 1.09
7: Columbia 1883 0 6 0.32
8: Cowlitz 39217 829 252 0.63
9: Douglas 14040 0 77 0.55
10: Ferry 3373 0 14 0.42
11: Franklin 19785 0 495 2.50
12: Garfield 953 0 6 0.63
13: Grant 22969 0 119 0.52
14: Grays Harbor 24387 617 413 1.65
15: Island 37595 2006 459 1.16
16: Jefferson 19586 0 98 0.50
17: King 821468 40 11545 1.41
18: Kitsap 108959 1 2565 2.35
19: Kittitas 16935 0 315 1.86
20: Klickitat 6967 0 60 0.86
21: Lewis 31132 1343 218 0.67
22: Lincoln 4741 0 51 1.08
23: Mason 26503 0 293 1.11
24: Okanogan 12503 0 445 3.56
25: Pacific 10430 0 100 0.96
26: Pend Oreille 6173 0 21 0.34
27: Pierce 281128 12197 2743 0.94
28: San Juan 7912 0 50 0.63
29: Skagit 39872 0 337 0.85
30: Skamania 4841 0 88 1.82
31: Snohomish 269068 17823 3511 1.22
32: Spokane 200064 10290 2203 1.05
33: Stevens 15337 1834 216 1.26
34: Thurston 117075 4822 1582 1.30
35: Wahkiakum 1957 0 65 3.32
36: Walla Walla 19321 0 215 1.11
37: Whatcom 97618 913 1075 1.09
38: Whitman 12977 0 270 2.08
39: Yakima 61943 0 469 0.76
County Accepted Received Rejected RejectPCT
[1] "Some Top Challenge Returns by County:"
County Accepted.Returned SignatureDoesNotMatch Review Unsigned HOLD IDRequired OtherthanVoter Hold
1: Adams 3655 68 0 5 0 0 0 0
2: Asotin 7921 126 0 11 2 1 1 0
3: Benton 67432 674 2 217 14 3 32 0
4: Chelan 29967 75 0 50 0 1 0 0
5: Clallam 33454 476 4 109 12 10 20 0
6: Clark 171731 1164 276 207 178 5 8 0
7: Columbia 1883 4 0 2 0 0 0 0
8: Cowlitz 40046 150 40 45 1 1 3 0
9: Douglas 14040 29 1 23 24 0 0 0
10: Ferry 3373 9 0 0 3 0 0 0
11: Franklin 19785 366 2 68 39 0 0 0
12: Garfield 953 6 0 0 0 0 0 0
13: Grant 22969 99 1 19 0 0 0 0
14: Grays Harbor 25004 291 0 89 28 2 0 0
15: Island 39601 214 3 122 83 10 22 0
16: Jefferson 19586 35 1 45 12 0 3 0
17: King 821509 7120 188 2326 139 26 43 194
18: Kitsap 108962 954 1389 72 76 6 5 3
19: Kittitas 16935 195 1 96 16 4 0 0
20: Klickitat 6967 45 0 15 0 0 0 0
21: Lewis 32475 179 0 31 5 0 2 0
22: Lincoln 4741 36 0 2 13 0 0 0
23: Mason 26503 214 0 25 24 1 0 0
24: Okanogan 12503 379 0 15 26 5 0 0
25: Pacific 10430 76 0 24 0 0 0 0
26: Pend Oreille 6173 12 0 9 0 0 0 0
27: Pierce 293326 2048 79 183 13 14 263 0
28: San Juan 7912 32 0 11 4 3 0 0
29: Skagit 39872 218 0 102 0 1 16 0
30: Skamania 4841 18 0 8 60 0 0 0
31: Snohomish 286891 3186 15 191 32 1 41 0
32: Spokane 210384 1026 808 180 17 53 19 0
33: Stevens 17171 123 1 11 59 11 8 0
34: Thurston 121898 765 4 125 403 7 78 139
35: Wahkiakum 1957 64 0 0 1 0 0 0
36: Walla Walla 19321 127 1 51 24 2 3 0
37: Whatcom 98532 658 3 197 8 43 59 0
38: Whitman 12977 214 0 13 39 2 0 0
39: Yakima 61943 88 184 113 61 22 0 0
County Accepted.Returned SignatureDoesNotMatch Review Unsigned HOLD IDRequired OtherthanVoter Hold
[1] "The fields below merge October 7th voter database with current ballot status list. Thus later registrations are not part of the calculus here.Please see https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/research/ballot-return-statistics.aspx for up to date percentages and turnout."
[1] "Top 5 Counties by Turnout Pct from 10/7 VRDB"
CountyCode sumBallotsRet sumOctoberActive TO.pct
1: SP 210747 378478 55.7
2: KI 824672 1498936 55.0
3: SN 288212 546288 52.8
4: CR 171772 345142 49.8
5: PI 292702 603247 48.5
[1] "Top 10 Counties by Turnout Pct from 10/7 VRDB"
CountyCode sumBallotsRet sumOctoberActive TO.pct
1: WM 98951 166886 59.3
2: TH 122564 213831 57.3
3: SP 210747 378478 55.7
4: KP 110642 200699 55.1
5: KI 824672 1498936 55.0
6: SN 288212 546288 52.8
7: BE 67823 131889 51.4
8: CR 171772 345142 49.8
9: PI 292702 603247 48.5
10: YA 61953 132689 46.7
[1] "Blue vs. Red County Totals. Use 2018 Senate Race as county (blue/red) marker"
[1] "See https://komonews.com/news/local/washington-state-election-results-interactive-map for D & R WA county divisions"
Categories Count
1: 2020GE.BlueCountyBallots 2093530
2: 2020GE.NotBlueCountyBallots 666276
3: OctVDB.Blue.Active 3576774
4: OctVDB.NotBlue.Active 1176694
[1] "Last Voted Profile of Ballots to inference low propensity voter participation:"
LastVoted N
1: 2020-11-03 10446
2: 2020-08-04 1900541
3: 2020-04-28 2446
4: 2020-03-10 274427
5: 2020-02-11 27707
6: 2019-11-05 69669
7: 2019-08-06 12144
8: 2019-04-23 2332
9: 2019-02-12 9215
10: 2018-11-06 136754
11: 2018-08-07 3978
12: 2018-02-13 3358
13: 2017-11-07 3719
14: 2017-08-01 1921
15: 2016-11-08 63514
16: 2016-05-24 2754
17: 2014-11-04 2408
18: 2012-11-06 12989
19: 2008-11-04 3967
20: <NA> 197407 No LastVoted field
[,1] [,2]
Category "Total.Ballots" "PCT.Total.Ballots"
LastVoted2019orLater "2308927.0" "83.7"
LastVoted2018orEarlier "253473.0" "9.2"
LastVoted2016orEarlier "100742.0" "3.7"
LastVoted2012orEarlier "24904.0" "0.9"
[1] "Top 20 aggregate counts for
County,City,Zip,c(City,Zip),c(County,Zip)."
County N City N Zip N City Zip N County Zip N
1: King 833053 SEATTLE 324536 98115 26904 SEATTLE 98115 26904 King 98115 26781
2: Pierce 296068 SPOKANE 118624 98103 25712 SEATTLE 98103 25709 King 98103 25611
3: Snohomish 290402 VANCOUVER 115225 99208 23489 SPOKANE 99208 23487 Spokane 99208 23451
4: Spokane 212557 TACOMA 91902 98012 23107 REDMOND 98052 21388 Snohomish 98012 23036
5: Clark 173611 OLYMPIA 69712 98052 21398 BELLINGHAM 98225 20854 King 98052 21354
6: Thurston 123479 BELLINGHAM 58263 98225 20865 VANCOUVER 98682 19630 Whatcom 98225 20582
7: Kitsap 111525 EVERETT 50844 98133 19982 EVERETT 98208 19250 King 98133 19902
8: Whatcom 99606 BELLEVUE 47908 98501 19745 KIRKLAND 98034 18905 Thurston 98501 19700
9: Benton 68405 RENTON 47006 98682 19638 BELLINGHAM 98226 18887 Clark 98682 19614
10: Yakima 62412 PUYALLUP 44958 98208 19259 SEATTLE 98117 18631 Snohomish 98208 19204
11: Cowlitz 40298 KENT 38620 98034 18908 LONGVIEW 98632 17819 Whatcom 98226 18842
12: Skagit 40209 SPOKANE VALLEY 38218 98226 18889 LAKE STEVENS 98258 17607 King 98034 18837
13: Island 40060 BOTHELL 38017 98117 18631 SEATTLE 98125 17596 King 98117 18566
14: Clallam 34094 YAKIMA 35756 98391 18392 PASCO 99301 17584 Pierce 98391 18333
15: Lewis 32693 KIRKLAND 35534 98632 17828 SEATTLE 98122 17552 Cowlitz 98632 17786
16: Chelan 30096 LYNNWOOD 32686 98258 17631 SEATTLE 98118 17400 Snohomish 98258 17601
17: Mason 26796 AUBURN 32078 98125 17600 EDMONDS 98026 16551 King 98125 17543
18: Grays Harbor 25417 REDMOND 31149 99301 17585 MARYSVILLE 98270 16529 Franklin 99301 17493
19: Grant 23088 KENNEWICK 30542 98122 17556 SPOKANE 99205 16335 King 98122 17466
20: Franklin 20280 BREMERTON 29993 98118 17403 OLYMPIA 98501 16297 King 98118 17373
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