Summary:
Exactly 1,302,562 ballots have been 'Accepted' or 'Received' in last night's (11/05/2019) statewide matchback. Another 15,487 have been rejected or 'challenged'. The WA SoS total for this is 1,315,081 'Ballots Received' for a turnout of 29.2%. This statewide total is ~88% of the approximately 1.5M votes received for each of the 2015 and 2017 ('off year') general elections. 344,769 of these ballots are "on hand" and yet to be tabulated. It should be noted that the Election Results page for GE 2019 will now track ballot counts as the Ballot Statistics page will not be updated until certification. To see my piece on projected ballot totals for this election please see here.
Understanding ballot processing this time of year is complicated and Same Day Registration has increased that complexity. [Link to blog post coming here]
The current vote is dominated by those born in the 1940s or 1950s (now ages 60 - 79). These two decades have a combined 582,446 ballots accepted. By comparison, those born 1980 or afterwards (ages 18 - 39) have a combined 33% of that (582,446) total with 191,373 ballots accepted. That "youth" or millennial vote in WA still has not yet to compete with the pre-war and boomer votes in this general election. GenXrs, those born in the 60s and 70s are contributing 358,867 votes. But keep in mind this amazing statistic: Those born in the 1930s (98,188 voted) are currently outvoting those born in the 1980s(65,939 voted). Say what you will about the older vote: Pre-wars and boomers vote like their lives depend upon it. Please see 'Age by Status' below. To see my updated and ongoing piece on WWU precinct turnout, see here.
Women are currently out voting men in all but 5 counties. I am reminded that I noticed a strong male registration trend in July 2018. For the state as a whole:
BallotStatus Female Male
1: Accepted 638587 605701 # Ready for tabulation
2: Received 27832 25134 # In the chute
3: Rejected 7225 8113 # Challenged or Rejected
For our neck of woods (Whatcom, Skagit, San Juan), accepted female votes are ahead of male votes:
BallotStatus Female Male
1: Accepted 45855 41717
2: Received 285 264
3: Rejected 409 467
Tables made from rdata.table code with output follow the break. Widescreen is best for viewing especially on a phone.
# [All State: 11.05.2019]
sMB110519[,.N,.(BallotStatus)]
BallotStatus N
1: Accepted 1249345
2: Rejected 15487
3: Received 53217
VR[StatusCode == "Active",.N]
[1] 4479369
# All status active as of October 1 (4.47M)
#(1249345 + 53217)/VR[StatusCode == "Active",.N] * 100
# Percentage Accepted and Received as of 11.05.2019
(1249345 + 53217)/VR[StatusCode == "Active",.N] * 100
# See also https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/research/ballot-return- statistics.aspx
#[All State: Challenge Reason]
sMB110519[BallotStatus == "Rejected",.N]
[1] 15487
sMB110519[,.N,.(ChallengeReason)][order(-N)]
ChallengeReason N
1: 1302563
2: Signature Does Not Match 6414
3: Unsigned 3637
4: Review 1973
5: Undeliverable 1244
6: HOLD 760
7: Other than Voter 461
8: Ballot Style Change 251
9: Other Than Voter 144
10: No Signature on File 117
11: ID Required 89
12: Marked Moved 79
13: Canvassing Board 62
14: Deceased 56
15: Power of Attorney 33
16: Hold 33
17: No Signature On File 26
18: Advanced Special Ballot 26
19: Empty Envelope 22
20: Voter Name Change 20
21: Witness Signature Missing 20
22: Id Required 12
23: Invalid 6
24: Power Of Attorney 1
ChallengeReason N
# [Whatcom County]
sMB110519[County == "Whatcom",.N,.(ChallengeReason)][order(-N)]
ChallengeReason N
1: 61294
2: Signature Does Not Match 240
3: Unsigned 89
4: Other than Voter 62
5: Ballot Style Change 40
6: HOLD 31
7: Review 17
8: ID Required 7
9: Empty Envelope 2
10: Deceased 1
sMB110519[County == "Whatcom",.N,.(BallotStatus)]
BallotStatus N
1: Accepted 60743
2: Received 551
3: Rejected 489
# All State
VR[,Age:=as.numeric(year(ymd_hms(Sys.time()))) - year(ymd(Birthdate))]
Age by Status
sMB110519[,.N,.(Decade=paste0(year(mdy_hm(DOB))%/%10,"0s"),BallotStatus)][,dcast(.SD, BallotStatus ~ Decade, value.var="N",fun.aggregate=fsum)]
BallotStatus 1900s 1910s 1920s 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s
1: Accepted 5 416 18050 98188 263191 319255 214243 144624 116274 65939 9160
2: Received 0 8 404 2388 7511 12162 10884 8325 6802 4062 671
3: Rejected 1 10 199 688 1655 2676 2430 2312 2405 2601 510
sMB <- allotstatus="" ecade="paste0(year(mdy_hm(DOB))%/%10," font="" s="" smb110519="">
dcast(.SD, BallotStatus ~ Decade, value.var="N",fun.aggregate=fsum)]
cbind(setnames(VR[StatusCode == "Active",.N,.(Decade=Age%/%10)][order(-Decade)],c("Age","Registered"))[],
setnames(as.data.table(t(sMB),keep.rownames=TRUE)[2:12,1:2],
c("Decade","Voted"))[])[,
.(Decade,Age=paste0(Age,"0s"),Registered,Voted)][,
.SD[,.(Turnout=round(as.numeric(Voted)/as.numeric(Registered),3) * 100)],.(Decade,Age,Registered,Voted)]
Decade Age Registered Voted Turnout
1: 1900s 110s 27 5 18.5
2: 1910s 100s 1711 416 24.3
3: 1920s 90s 44030 18050 41.0
4: 1930s 80s 184015 98188 53.4
5: 1940s 70s 492174 263191 53.5
6: 1950s 60s 765293 319255 41.7
7: 1960s 50s 756929 214243 28.3
8: 1970s 40s 706611 144624 20.5
9: 1980s 30s 784614 116274 14.8
10: 1990s 20s 672919 65939 9.8
11: 2000s 10s 71046 9160 12.9
AgeTable <- font="" nbsp="">
cbind(setnames(VR[StatusCode == "Active",.N,.(Decade=Age%/%10)][order(-Decade)],
c("Age","Registered"))[],
setnames(as.data.table(t(sMB),keep.rownames=TRUE)[2:12,1:2],
c("Decade","Voted"))[])[,
.(Decade,Age=paste0(Age,"0s"),Registered,Voted)][,
.SD[,.(Turnout=round(as.numeric(Voted)/as.numeric(Registered),3) * 100)],.(Decade,Age,Registered,Voted)]
sMB110519[Gender == "M" | Gender == "F",.N,.(Gender,BallotStatus)][,
setnames(dcast(.SD, BallotStatus ~ Gender, value.var="N",fun.aggregate=fsum),
c("BallotStatus","Female","Male"))]
BallotStatus Female Male
1: Accepted 638587 605701
2: Received 27832 25134
3: Rejected 7225 8113
sMB110519[County %in% c("Whatcom","Skagit","San Juan"),
.N,.(Decade=paste0(year(mdy_hm(DOB))%/%10,"0s"),BallotStatus)][,
dcast(.SD, BallotStatus ~ Decade, value.var="N",fun.aggregate=fsum)]
BallotStatus 1910s 1920s 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s
1: Accepted 32 1276 7044 19741 22385 13412 9797 8076 5231 813
2: Received 0 5 30 79 110 101 80 79 57 10
3: Rejected 1 12 48 121 158 129 112 126 144 33
sMB110519[County %in% c("Whatcom","Skagit","San Juan"),][
Gender == "M" | Gender == "F",.N,.(Gender,BallotStatus)][,
setnames(dcast(.SD, BallotStatus ~ Gender, value.var="N",fun.aggregate=fsum),
c("BallotStatus","Female","Male"))]
BallotStatus Female Male
1: Accepted 45855 41717
2: Received 285 264
3: Rejected 409 467
sMB110519[(Gender == "M" | Gender == "F") & County %in% c("Whatcom","Skagit","San Juan"),
.N,.(County,Gender)][order(County,-Gender)]
County Gender N
1: San Juan M 2352
2: San Juan F 2646
3: Skagit M 10845
4: Skagit F 11555
5: Whatcom M 29251
6: Whatcom F 32348
VR[(Gender == "M" | Gender == "F") & StatusCode == "Active" & CountyCode %in% c("WM","SK","SJ"),
+ .N,.(CountyCode,Gender)][order(CountyCode,-Gender)]
CountyCode Gender N
1: SJ M 6481
2: SJ F 7164
3: SK M 36785
4: SK F 40808
5: WM M 69437
6: WM F 75676
# October 1st VRDB WA ('whole enchilada')
VR[StatusCode == "Active",.N,.(Gender)]
Gender N
1: M 2145204
2: F 2313683
3: 5806
4: U 14549
5: O 127
# Just our neck of woods: Whatcom, Skagit, San Juan
VR[StatusCode == "Active" & CountyCode %in% c("WM","SK","SJ"),.N,.(Gender)]
Gender N
1: M 112703
2: F 123648
3: 425
4: U 52
5: O 14
sMB110519[(Gender == "M" | Gender == "F"),
.N,.(County,Gender)][order(County,-Gender)][,
dcast(.SD, County ~ Gender,value.var="N",fun.aggregate=fsum)][,
.(County,Male=M,Female=F)][,
.SD[,.(Pct.Male=round(Male/(Male+Female),3) * 100)],
.(County,Male,Female)]
y = male outvotes females
County Male Female Pct.Male
1: Adams 861 940 47.8
2: Asotin 2441 2536 49.0
3: Benton 14771 15017 49.6
4: Chelan 7930 8317 48.8
5: Clallam 7905 8564 48.0
6: Clark 33013 34834 48.7
7: Columbia 618 659 48.4
8: Cowlitz 9651 10066 48.9
9: Douglas 3965 4162 48.8
10: Ferry 1087 1037 51.2 y
11: Franklin 4128 4150 49.9
12: Garfield 478 492 49.3
13: Grant 6098 6106 50.0
14: Grays Harbor 6586 7103 48.1
15: Island 8736 9292 48.5
16: Jefferson 5270 5725 47.9
17: King 206043 215267 48.9
18: Kitsap 26291 27159 49.2
19: Kittitas 4269 4255 50.1
20: Klickitat 2146 2168 49.7
21: Lewis 8084 8267 49.4
22: Lincoln 1503 1497 50.1 y
23: Mason 6796 6746 50.2 y
24: Okanogan 3732 3798 49.6
25: Pacific 2272 2301 49.7
26: Pend Oreille 1990 1948 50.5 y
27: Pierce 55650 58511 48.7
28: San Juan 2352 2646 47.1
29: Skagit 10845 11555 48.4
30: Skamania 1154 1134 50.4 y
31: Snohomish 55151 57919 48.8
32: Spokane 55423 61175 47.5
33: Stevens 4558 4600 49.8
34: Thurston 25278 27578 47.8
35: Wahkiakum 571 591 49.1
36: Walla Walla 4245 4578 48.1
37: Whatcom 29251 32348 47.5
38: Whitman 3488 3630 49.0
39: Yakima 14318 14973 48.9
County Male Female Pct.Male
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