Matchback 10.29.2019: State and local counties

Summary:

Exactly 528,842 have been 'Accepted' or 'Received' in last night's (10/28/2019) statewide matchback. Another 7,516 have been rejected or 'challenged'.  The WA SoS  total  is 536,497 'Ballots Received' for a turnout of 11.9%. This statewide total is  ~36% of the approximately 1.5M votes received for each of the 2015 and 2017  ('off year') general elections. To see my piece on projected ballot totals for this election please see here. 

The current vote is dominated by those born in the 1940s or 1950s (now ages 60 - 79). These two decades have a combined 262,057 ballots accepted. By comparison, those born 1980 or afterwards (ages 18 - 39) have a combined 26% of that (262,057) total with 67,675 ballots accepted.  That "youth" or millennial vote in WA still has not yet to compete with the pre-war and boomer votes in this general election.  GenXrs, those born in the 60s and 70s are contributing 133,125 votes.  Please see 'Age by Status' below.  To see my updated and ongoing piece on WWU precinct turnout, see here.

Men are currently out voting women in 29 of 39 counties and this is remarkable given the current political environment and the fact that  ~170K more women are registered than men statewide. I am reminded that I noticed this trend in July 2018. For the state as a whole:

   BallotStatus Female   Male
1:     Accepted 257443 261775 # Ready for tabulation
2:     Received   3939   3669 # In the chute
3:     Rejected   3500   3943 # Challenged or Rejected


For our neck of woods (Whatcom, Skagit, San Juan), female  voters are ahead of male voters for first time in these matchback reports:

   BallotStatus Female  Male
1:     Accepted  15761 15389
2:     Rejected    133   178

Tables made from rdata.table code with output follow the break. Widescreen is best for viewing:


# [All State: 11.29.2019] 
sMB102919[,.N,.(BallotStatus)]
   BallotStatus      N
1:     Accepted 521210
2:     Received   7632
3:     Rejected   7516
> 
VR[StatusCode == "Active",.N]
[1] 4479369
# All status active as of October 1 (4.47M)

# percentage Accepted and Received as of 10.29.2019
#(521210+7632)/VR[StatusCode == "Active",.N] * 100
11.80617

See also https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/research/ballot-return-statistics.aspx

#[All State: Challenge Reason]
sMB102919[BallotStatus == "Rejected",.N]
[1] 7516

sMB102919[,.N,.(ChallengeReason)][order(-N)]
              ChallengeReason      N
 1:                           528849
 2:  Signature Does Not Match   2608
 3:                  Unsigned   2273
 4:             Undeliverable   1195
 5:                    Review    489
 6:                      HOLD    345
 7:          Other than Voter    165
 8:       Ballot Style Change    125
 9:                  Deceased     47
10:              Marked Moved     41
11:      No Signature on File     38
12:               ID Required     38
13:   Advanced Special Ballot     26
14:         Voter Name Change     23
15:          Canvassing Board     21
16:          Other Than Voter     18
17:            Empty Envelope     17
18:                      Hold     14
19: Witness Signature Missing     11
20:                   Invalid      6
21:               Id Required      4
22:         Power of Attorney      4
23:         Power Of Attorney      1
              ChallengeReason      N

sMB102919[County == "Whatcom",.N,.(ChallengeReason)][order(-N)]
            ChallengeReason     N
1:                          19511
2: Signature Does Not Match    53
3:                 Unsigned    44
4:         Other than Voter    17
5:      Ballot Style Change    16
6:                     HOLD     3
7:                 Deceased     1
8:              ID Required     1
9:           Empty Envelope     1

# [Whatcom County]
sMB102919[County == "Whatcom",.N,.(BallotStatus)]
   BallotStatus     N
1:     Accepted 19510
2:     Rejected   137

Age by Status Table 

   BallotStatus 1900s 1910s 1920s 1930s  1940s  1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s
1:     Accepted     2   196  9016 49139 125365 136692 81238 51887 41732 23121  2822
2:     Received     0     1    72   617   1836   2136  1279   790   516   322    63
3:     Rejected     0     3   149   461    936   1378  1119  1022  1133  1131   184


   BallotStatus Female   Male
1:     Accepted 257443 261775
2:     Received   3939   3669
3:     Rejected   3500   3943

sMB102919[County %in% c("Whatcom","Skagit","San Juan"),
.N,.(Decade=paste0(year(mdy_hm(DOB))%/%10,"0s"),BallotStatus)][,
dcast(.SD, BallotStatus ~ Decade, value.var="N",fun.aggregate=fsum)]

   BallotStatus 1910s 1920s 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s
1:     Accepted    18   619  3269  8592  8311  4079  2687  2183  1281   170
2:     Rejected     0     9    29    56    55    53    37    39    32     4

sMB102919[County %in% c("Whatcom","Skagit","San Juan"),][
Gender == "M" | Gender == "F",.N,.(Gender,BallotStatus)][,
setnames(dcast(.SD, BallotStatus ~ Gender, value.var="N",fun.aggregate=fsum),
c("BallotStatus","Female","Male"))]

   BallotStatus Female  Male
1:     Accepted  15761 15389
2:     Rejected    133   178

sMB102919[(Gender == "M" | Gender == "F") & County %in% c("Whatcom","Skagit","San Juan"),
.N,.(County,Gender)][order(County,-Gender)]
     County Gender    N
1: San Juan      M  887
2: San Juan      F  896
3:   Skagit      M 5046
4:   Skagit      F 5025
5:  Whatcom      M 9634
6:  Whatcom      F 9973

VR[(Gender == "M" | Gender == "F") & StatusCode == "Active" & CountyCode %in% c("WM","SK","SJ"),
.N,.(CountyCode,Gender)][order(CountyCode,-Gender)]
   CountyCode Gender     N
1:         SJ      M  6481
2:         SJ      F  7164
3:         SK      M 36785
4:         SK      F 40808
5:         WM      M 69437
6:         WM      F 75676

October 1st VRDB WA ('whole enchilada')
VR[StatusCode == "Active",.N,.(Gender)]
   Gender       N
1:      M 2145204
2:      F 2313683
3:           5806
4:      U   14549
5:      O     127

# Just our neck of woods: Whatcom, Skagit, San Juan
VR[StatusCode == "Active" & CountyCode %in% c("WM","SK","SJ"),.N,.(Gender)]
   Gender      N
1:      F 123648
2:      M 112703
3:           425
4:      U     52
5:      O     14

County By Gender

x = Counties where Females are outvoting Males

          County  Male Female Pct.Male
 1:        Adams   459    476     49.1 x
 2:       Asotin  1241   1252     49.8 x
 3:       Benton  5940   5635     51.3
 4:       Chelan  3612   3563     50.3
 5:      Clallam  3630   3699     49.5 x
 6:        Clark 14924  14636     50.5
 7:     Columbia   252    243     50.9
 8:      Cowlitz  3478   3322     51.1
 9:      Douglas  1757   1786     49.6 x
10:        Ferry   528    483     52.2
11:     Franklin  1636   1587     50.8
12:     Garfield   120    107     52.9
13:        Grant  3151   3012     51.1
14: Grays Harbor  3373   3570     48.6 x
15:       Island  4272   4231     50.2
16:    Jefferson  2358   2461     48.9 x
17:         King 76568  73593     51.0
18:       Kitsap 12186  11858     50.7
19:     Kittitas  2012   1880     51.7
20:    Klickitat   967    942     50.7
21:        Lewis  3782   3592     51.3
22:      Lincoln   757    730     50.9
23:        Mason  4047   3845     51.3
24:     Okanogan  1754   1662     51.3
25:      Pacific  1044   1008     50.9
26: Pend Oreille   932    821     53.2
27:       Pierce 26478  25970     50.5
28:     San Juan   887    896     49.7 x
29:       Skagit  5046   5025     50.1
30:     Skamania   389    352     52.5
31:    Snohomish 20490  19885     50.7
32:      Spokane 26660  27885     48.9x
33:      Stevens  2611   2493     51.2
34:     Thurston 12140  12266     49.7 x
35:    Wahkiakum   207    199     51.0
36:  Walla Walla  1984   1984     50.0
37:      Whatcom  9634   9973     49.1 x
38:      Whitman  1401   1391     50.2
39:       Yakima  6680   6569     50.4
          County  Male Female Pct.Male