GE 2019: The Precincts and County Districts. About 2 minutes.
County Council Districts 4 and 5 will be a struggle for the Democrats. There is a reasonable if contested chance of Democratic victory for District 5. District 4 will require an especially dedicated Democratic turnout to steal victory from the solid Republican precincts. If a federal election volume of turnout is achieved for the Democrats, the contested 'All County' offices (Executive, Sheriff, County at Large (B) and Assessor) should go blue. But local elections (usually odd years) seldom match federal elections (usually even years) in turnout. This is especially true for Bellingham's large and left leaning student vote.
Because of this dynamic, David Ramirez(R) could beat Carol Frazey(D) in the County Council at Large (B) race, although Mr. Ramirez is challenging an incumbent. Similarly, Daniel Miller(R) may fare significantly better than some would expect against Liz Lovelett(D) in the Whatcom's 40th LD because student and youth voting will be less energized. The other contested races (Executive, Sheriff, Assessor) are legitimate tossups in a local election year. Additionally, the format and order of races/issues in this ballot are "vote suppressive" by default. Placed first on the ballot by law will be:
- 1 Referendum
- 1 Initiative
- 12 Advisories (Count'em!)
- 1 Proposed Constitutional Amendment
The more casual voter will have to wade through all of that before the candidate races themselves meet his or her eyeballs. The responsible voter upon reading this would think such detail would be irrelevant to voter participation. They would be wrong. I would fain advise that the 'casual' voter should systematically study all the issues before voting but that may not be helpful either. Thus this advice: It is OK to skip the thick parts so you vote for actual people if the end result of the potential frustration in voting for the thick parts means you simply don't turn in a ballot at all! The non-binding advisory proponents can blame me for their irrelevant losses. There, I said it. Having said that, the folks that want you to vote No on Tim Eyman's 976 are freaking out as they read my italicized advice...
- For an online Whatcom clickable precinct/district map see here.
- Whatcom Elections has a map/shape file repository, however the shape files are not recent enough.
- For more general Whatcom County election links see my post here.
- District 4 and 5 in depth tables follows after the break
All County
Maria Cantwell vs. Susan Hutchison GE 2018 (without hidden precincts):sumD sumR
1: 64971 43757
Latent class projections (See 1, 2) from VRDB as of 10/2019:
sumDP sumRP
1: 95087 49916
District 4 & 5
Totals
District 4sumD sumR
1: 7389 13791
District5
sumD sumR
1: 11332 10378
District 4
sumDP sumRP
1: 11913 16892
District 5
sumDP sumRP
1: 19570 11332
Precincts: PID, Senate GE 2018 Totals, lca predictors, abs % diff
District 4PID MariaCantwell SusanHutchison D.lca R.lca DPAD
1: 112 56 95 62 148 7.6
2: 113 203 368 224 511 5.1
3: 115 207 445 305 587 2.5
4: 116 71 335 174 346 16.0
5: 117 69 391 186 411 16.2
6: 118 175 490 349 574 11.5
7: 123 162 245 174 375 8.1
8: 124 147 257 155 370 6.9
9: 125 224 456 380 632 4.6
10: 129 289 372 297 556 8.9
11: 130 162 237 161 400 11.9
12: 131 316 417 298 668 12.3
13: 132 293 276 493 254 17.4
14: 135 371 204 618 99 21.7
15: 139 33 277 96 279 15.0
16: 140 157 706 437 759 18.3
17: 144 116 598 264 631 13.3
18: 201 698 377 1146 214 19.4
19: 202 419 173 904 179 12.7
20: 203 517 275 925 245 13.8
21: 268 17 18 40 19 19.2
22: 401 160 233 181 438 11.5
23: 402 241 334 221 578 14.2
24: 601 146 318 146 366 3.0
25: 602 183 454 248 614 0.1
26: 603 148 417 303 479 12.5
27: 604 256 777 561 885 14.0
28: 605 230 645 357 808 4.3
29: 606 171 475 272 604 4.6
30: 607 122 427 224 483 9.5
31: 608 188 415 289 471 6.8
32: 609 161 580 334 642 12.5
33: 610 180 561 276 662 5.1
34: 611 103 396 230 467 12.4
35: 701 206 396 375 507 8.3
36: 801 192 351 208 631 10.6
PID MariaCantwell SusanHutchison D.lca R.lca DPAD
District 5
PID MariaCantwell SusanHutchison D.lca R.lca DPAD
1: 101 558 194 953 133 13.6
2: 102 228 251 380 336 4.1
3: 103 365 299 414 454 8.1
4: 104 197 242 200 314 6.0
5: 105 207 161 404 89 25.7
6: 106 287 328 632 296 24.0
7: 107 419 407 573 626 3.2
8: 108 393 428 943 268 29.1
9: 110 319 422 340 702 10.4
10: 111 272 430 291 649 7.7
11: 114 149 250 173 373 5.6
12: 119 229 245 394 248 14.5
13: 120 211 419 269 548 0.6
14: 121 196 288 197 462 10.6
15: 122 150 260 175 385 5.4
16: 126 455 490 712 557 8.1
17: 127 383 499 389 770 9.8
18: 133 439 116 957 117 10.0
19: 134 464 255 812 158 19.2
20: 137 473 122 936 127 8.6
21: 138 543 148 710 95 9.6
22: 301 356 369 824 291 23.8
23: 302 521 362 1068 229 23.3
24: 303 395 396 286 710 20.1
25: 304 123 88 300 60 25.0
26: 501 373 417 830 269 27.4
27: 502 301 283 653 165 27.5
28: 503 336 375 665 241 25.9
29: 504 373 362 862 248 26.7
30: 505 321 196 644 114 22.9
31: 506 408 302 833 188 24.1
32: 507 287 298 682 213 26.2
33: 508 368 360 845 303 20.9
34: 509 233 316 224 594 15.0
PID MariaCantwell SusanHutchison D.lca R.lca DPAD
Strong Democrats or Republicans Predicted Only By Precinct:
District 4PID DemPred RepubPred
1: 112 36 148
2: 113 116 511
3: 115 305 587
4: 116 174 346
5: 117 186 411
6: 118 349 574
7: 123 86 375
8: 124 75 370
9: 125 380 632
10: 129 168 556
11: 130 82 400
12: 131 174 668
13: 132 260 156
14: 135 618 99
15: 139 96 279
16: 140 437 759
17: 144 264 631
18: 201 1146 214
19: 202 904 179
20: 203 925 245
21: 268 21 13
22: 401 96 438
23: 402 134 578
24: 601 146 366
25: 602 248 614
26: 603 303 479
27: 604 561 885
28: 605 357 808
29: 606 272 604
30: 607 224 483
31: 608 289 471
32: 609 334 642
33: 610 276 662
34: 611 230 467
35: 701 375 507
36: 801 125 631
PID DemPred RepubPred
District 5
PID DemPred RepubPred
1: 101 953 133
2: 102 374 342
3: 103 418 450
4: 104 199 315
5: 105 404 89
6: 106 627 301
7: 107 590 609
8: 108 899 312
9: 110 337 705
10: 111 288 652
11: 114 171 375
12: 119 384 258
13: 120 269 548
14: 121 195 464
15: 122 173 387
16: 126 702 567
17: 127 385 774
18: 133 957 117
19: 134 812 158
20: 137 936 127
21: 138 710 95
22: 301 791 324
23: 302 1068 229
24: 303 326 670
25: 304 300 60
26: 501 798 301
27: 502 631 187
28: 503 642 264
29: 504 829 281
30: 505 644 114
31: 506 833 188
32: 507 655 240
33: 508 806 342
34: 509 221 597
PID DemPred RepubPred
Strong Democrats or Republicans Predicted Only By LastVoted Year:
District 4LastVoted DemPred RepubPred
1: NA 1475 1348
2: 1992 2 7
3: 1993 0 2
4: 1994 0 1
5: 1995 0 2
6: 1996 0 5
7: 1997 1 9
8: 1998 0 2
9: 1999 0 1
10: 2000 1 4
11: 2002 7 17
12: 2003 3 0
13: 2004 26 37
14: 2005 3 6
15: 2006 12 11
16: 2007 6 3
17: 2008 60 76
18: 2009 8 8
19: 2010 38 48
20: 2011 29 22
21: 2012 186 189
22: 2013 25 27
23: 2014 88 62
24: 2015 80 80
25: 2016 1053 1124
26: 2017 118 113
27: 2018 3629 5132
28: 2019 3922 8452
LastVoted DemPred RepubPred
District 5
LastVoted DemPred RepubPred
1: NA 1947 727
2: 1992 2 0
3: 1993 1 0
4: 1996 1 0
5: 1997 5 6
6: 1998 1 0
7: 1999 2 0
8: 2000 8 4
9: 2001 5 1
10: 2002 22 6
11: 2004 33 15
12: 2005 3 2
13: 2006 16 5
14: 2007 1 1
15: 2008 107 27
16: 2009 10 1
17: 2010 65 29
18: 2011 18 12
19: 2012 242 88
20: 2013 44 23
21: 2014 82 29
22: 2015 50 25
23: 2016 1147 598
24: 2017 139 72
25: 2018 4036 2371
26: 2019 6199 5365
LastVoted DemPred RepubPred
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