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| Click to enlarge this complicated and noisy chart . Deaths (Red) are measured nominally. Fatality rate (Blue) is Fatalities/100M VMT (Vehicle Miles Traveled). Vehicle Miles Traveled (Purple) is measured as 100M VMT. To equate scales, fatalities are measured as numbered per the horizontal axis. VMT is effectively measured in trillions as 'y * 100M VMT', while fatality/VMT is effectively measured in deaths per trillion as 'y / 100M VMT'. These deaths include pedestrian and bicyclist deaths linked to moteor vehicle trauma. Source: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in_U.S._by_year |
All three of these per year measurements charted above (Deaths, VMT, Deaths/VMT) could be said to vary each year according to factors like:
- national economic health
- vehicle safety improvements
- increasing population
- price of fuel
and perhaps many other factors. For example, the plunging Deaths/VMT could well represent some of the new vehicle technology, highway infrastructure improvements, data based safety analysis by planning agencies and law enforcement initiatives designed to limit and control collision damage through mitigating behavioral crash factors like speeding, driving under the influence, texting etc. The essential pattern for this thirty year period shows that there is a very strong positive correlation coefficient [R base] between miles driven and population and a moderately strong negative correlation coefficient between miles driven and deaths:
- VMT.30[,cor(as.numeric(Population),as.numeric(VMT.Trillions))]
- 0.9618705
- VMT.30[,cor(as.numeric(Deaths),as.numeric(VMT.Trillions))]
- -0.6221964
In other words, motor vehicle trauma based fatalities per miles driven per year keep decreasing for this thirty year period on the whole. However, any particular subset of this thirty year period can show changing relationships. So, for example, the last six recorded years show that Deaths vs VMT correlates at .91! Functionally, this assures that the more you drive, the greater chance you have of death!
Year Population Deaths VMT.Trillions Deaths.per.Trillion.VMT
1: 2012 313914000 33782 2.97 11374.41
2: 2013 316129000 32893 2.99 11001.00
3: 2014 318860000 32744 3.03 10806.60
4: 2015 321370000 35485 3.10 11446.77
5: 2016 323121000 37806 3.17 11926.18
6: 2017 325719000 37133 3.21 11567.91
VMT.6[,cor(as.numeric(Population),as.numeric(VMT.Trillions))]
[1] 0.9814052
VMT.6[,cor(as.numeric(Deaths),as.numeric(VMT.Trillions))]
[1] 0.9146148
Full 30 Year Table sourced from: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in_U.S._by_year
Year Population Deaths VMT.Trillions Deaths.per.Trillion.VMT1: 1987 242288918 46390 1.92 24161.46
2: 1988 244498982 47087 2.03 23195.57
3: 1989 246819230 45582 2.10 21705.71
4: 1990 249464396 44599 2.14 20840.65
5: 1991 252153092 41508 2.17 19128.11
6: 1992 255029699 39250 2.25 17444.44
7: 1993 257782608 40150 2.30 17456.52
8: 1994 260327021 40716 2.36 17252.54
9: 1995 262803276 41817 2.42 17279.75
10: 1996 265228572 42065 2.49 16893.57
11: 1997 267783607 42013 2.56 16411.33
12: 1998 270248003 41501 2.63 15779.85
13: 1999 272690813 41717 2.69 15508.18
14: 2000 282216952 41945 2.75 15252.73
15: 2001 285226284 42196 2.80 15070.00
16: 2002 288125973 43005 2.86 15036.71
17: 2003 290796023 42884 2.89 14838.75
18: 2004 293638158 42836 2.96 14471.62
19: 2005 296507061 43510 2.99 14551.84
20: 2006 299398484 42708 3.01 14188.70
21: 2007 301139947 41259 3.03 13616.83
22: 2008 303824640 37423 2.98 12558.05
23: 2009 306700000 33883 2.96 11446.96
24: 2010 309326000 32999 2.97 11110.77
25: 2011 311588000 32479 2.95 11009.83
26: 2012 313914000 33782 2.97 11374.41
27: 2013 316129000 32893 2.99 11001.00
28: 2014 318860000 32744 3.03 10806.60
29: 2015 321370000 35485 3.10 11446.77
30: 2016 323121000 37806 3.17 11926.18
31: 2017 325719000 37133 3.21 11567.91
Year Population Deaths VMT.Trillions Deaths.per.Trillion.VMT
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