Ruminations on voting or not voting for school bonds are below. It is a big, neglected topic. I am just scratching the surface. - RMF
The activists that have been trying (dutifully) to pass a bond for the Ferndale School District are holding public meetings this month around Ferndale:
The problems Ferndale activists are having passing their school bond are now endemic to small cities and county areas in WA. To see this, type "Bonds WA failing" into the Google search bar. Ferndale has failed to pass this bond (primarily designed to rebuild the High School) in 2014 and GE 2018. They are trying again this month. Reading through the committee documents the local activists, parents, advocates have produced is more than anguishing. Type "ferndale school district bond" into google or just read through this document here. I spent the week looking at some of these problems . I think the problem set for these WA communities trying to pass school bonds in rural and small city areas has common components:
(1) Many times the 60% 'supermajority' provides an insurmountable obstacle to the passage of school bonds (not school levys) in WA State.Type "Bond WA 60% supermajority" into the Google search bar to see more on this.
(2) Anti-tax advocates have been dealt greater ammunition with (recent) accelerating property appraisals. This clearly leverages the anti-tax fears of older, retired populations, especially those on fixed incomes.
(3) There is clearly an urban Democrat vs. rural Republican split on this. The local Republican party almost never explicitly takes an anti school bond position. But many conservative and many older voters adopt anti-tax positions anyway.
(4) The supermajority bond approval rules mean that without some Republican support, school bonds will not pass in may rural school districts.
(5) For any community, the a school bond issue should be an easy pass, but school infrastructure and bond interest costs are so expensive that the residents of many smaller school districts are right to be wary of increases in property taxes.
More information, tables, charts and analysis below the break.
More information, tables, charts and analysis below the break.
School Bonds
Bonding is a staple of municipal and school financing and growth. The "Great Recession" was responsible for turmoil and confusion in the municipal bond markets and legislation was passed to help local communities recover and build again. Still, states like California needed to pass statewide bonds and legislation to help their K-12 schools build again. But apparently, the state of California has been slow to distribute the bond money that it's voter's passed (1,2) Even today, it is unclear whether bond markets are truly stable, risk averse instruments. Bonds are multivariate financial instruments. Municipal and School Bonds have historically been considered safe and important financial instruments. But municipal bonds can and do suffer from defaults, like any other form of financing. For more information on school and municipal bonds, see the links far below.
Whatcom County School District Recent Elections
I have done some analysis of the Ferndale SD GE2018 bond vote electoral dyanamics here. The Blaine technology levy only needed a simple majority and so just squeaked by in April. By comparison, Bellingham passed it's school bond by 70% this last February. It should be pointed out that Bellingham most probably has many more tax payers than the Ferndale school district. The Census SAIPE estimates for November 2018 gives us:
Name POP School Poverty
Bellingham School District 112410 12626 1329
Ferndale School District 33453 6020 668
School Children/ Population
Ferndale:
6020/33453
[1] 0.18
Bellingham:
12626/112410
[1] 0.11
School Children in Poverty / School Children
668/6020
[1] 0.11
1329/12626
[1] 0.11
POP = Total Population
School = Population of Relevant Children 5 to 17 years of Age
Poverty =Estimated Number of Relevant Children 5 to 17 years old in Poverty Related to the Householder.
However ACS data gives me different number than SAIPE:
Getting data from the 2013-2017 5-year ACS
Using FIPS code '53' for state 'WA'
GEOID NAME variable estimate moe
1: 5300420 Bellingham School District, Washington populati 104725 1502
2: 5302850 Ferndale School District, Washington populati 30594 1201
Getting data from the 2013-2017 5-year ACS
Using FIPS code '53' for state 'WA'
GEOID NAME variable estimate moe
1: 5300420 Bellingham School District, Washington enrolled 33366 1173
2: 5302850 Ferndale School District, Washington enrolled 8108 681
As of 01/15/2019, Ferndale School District voting population looks like this:
CountActive 21959
Male 10557
Female 11402
meanAge 51
stdevAge 18
LTEAge50 10753
GTRAge50 11206
probRenter 2038
probHomeResi 19921
as.matrix(summary(FSD_$Age))
Min. 18
1st Qu. 35
Median 51
Mean 51
3rd Qu. 65
Max. 105
#Registered active who voted in GE2018:
Voted by Mail Ballot 16,149
# 60% of those who voted in GE2018
16149 * .6
# Number of votes needed to pass the school bond:
[1] 9,689
#Number of votes needed to stop the bond at 59.99% approval of all those who voted in GE2018:
(16149 *.4) + 1
[1] 6,461
The voter history of the last five major elections (GE 2018,2017, 2016 and PRI 2018, 2017) produce a table of these counts:
BCsum N
1: 4 6293 # Voted in 4 out of 5
2: 3 3939 # Voted in 3 out of 5
3: 2 4475 # Voted in 2 out of 5
4: 1 3549 # Voted in 1 out of 5
5: 0 3605 # No voting history
6: 5 98 # Voted in in 5 out of 5
This means there are still a number of Registered active voters (5,810) who have did not vote in GE 2018. Still with two losses under their belts, the probability is high this bond will lose again.
Summary
School infrastructure bonds are important issues. Their lack of passage will fundamentally define growth and electoral patterns in the LD 42nd and other WA legislative districts. I found it informative to read through the Ferndale community comments in this document here to understand the effort the Ferndale SD activists have gone through to pass this bond and the input they receive from their school district members.
Financing school infrastructure in WA is now a politically divisive issue that splits populations along age, urban/rural,renters/owners, family/not family demographics. More liberal populations (like Bellingham) are financing better and better school districts. Incoming parents will consider school systems as they move to the Pacific Northwest from outside of Whatcom County. The net effect of having crumbling schools in rural areas could decrease the quality of education for working families in rural areas in WA and increase aging and conservative populations in those same areas.
Some Links
- WA RCW Bond Issues: https://app.leg.wa.gov/rcw/default.aspx?cite=28A.525
- WA SOS Bond and Levies: https://www.sos.wa.gov/_assets/elections/16-01-bonds-and-levies.pdf
- Steve Hawley from MRSC: Taxes and Bonds in the 2018 WA General Election
- IRS "ABCs of School Funding": https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-tege/teb1b03.pdf
- Census Survey on State and Local Goverment Finance: https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/state.html
- WA State Historical Society on WPSS Default: http://www.washingtonhistory.org/files/library/seduced-abandoned.pdf
- CA Prop 51: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_California_Proposition_51
- Cleveland's "Bond Accountability Commission": http://www.bondaccountability.org
- Brookings Institute on Infrastructure Bonds: https://www.brookings.edu/research/building-better-infrastructure-with-better-bonds/
- Project Invested: "Role of Bonds in America" : http://www.projectinvested.com/markets-explained/the-role-of-bonds-in-america/#topic-municipal-securities-market
Charts
Charts of Census (2017 ACS) data on median household income and enrolled students. Students in poverty to follow soon. Click to enlarge charts:
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| Median Household Income by Block Group (ACS 2017). School Districts in Blue. B19013_001E Estimate!!Median household income in the past 12 months (in 2017 inflation-adjusted dollars) MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS (IN 2017 INFLATION-ADJUSTED DOLLARS) |
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| School Enrollment by Block Group (ACS 2017). School Districts in Blue. B14007_002E Estimate!!Total!!Enrolled in school SCHOOL ENROLLMENT BY DETAILED LEVEL OF SCHOOL FOR THE POPULATION 3 YEARS AND OVER |
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| Children in Poverty Enrolled in School by Tract (ACS 2017). Block and Block Group not available for ACS 2017 B14006_003E Estimate!!Total!!Income in the past 12 months below the poverty level!! Enrolled in school POVERTY STATUS IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS BY SCHOOL ENROLLMENT BY LEVEL OF SCHOOL FOR THE POPULATION 3 YEARS AND OVER |
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