GE 2018 Results: The 163x Initiative Measures

As of 11/18/2018 enough results have been returned to reasonably assess the WA state county results. Below are lattice graphs and a table for WA  GE 2018 Initiative Measures labelled by 163x ranked by county. These initiative measures were:

• 1639 Gun Control
• 1634 Anti Grocery tax
• 1631 Pro Carbon Tax

The top 5 counties have such larger populations than the lesser 34 that concurrent display of different volumes obscures vote patterns. I segregate the county results in four different aggregated charts as labeled below. For each county, the three rows signify  'Yes' votes for  1639,1634 and 1631, ordered from top to bottom.   Subjectively, a pattern of 1634 (red middle bar) extending beyond 1639 (top blue bar) and 1631 (bottom blue bar) would indicate a conservative vote. Subjectively, the inverse would indicate a liberal vote.  For example, in the chart below, both San Juan and Jefferson have a more "liberal profile" than either "conservative" Walla Walla or Lewis County. In reality, these are second amendment, environmentalist, and sales tax issues such that any number of mixed votes might inhabit a largely independent or non-partisan voting populace as is much of WA state. All of the counties are backed off (left) the origin (0) an equal amount to make the smaller counties seem more visible. Click to enlarge the graphs.

Liberal vs. Conservative samples

The top 5 WA Counties are far more populous than the lesser 34. Here, the top 5 are displayed together. Notice how King County is much larger by volume than the other top 5 counties. King county displays a strong liberal bias in almost all elections and does so here, voting for 1639 (gun control) and 1631 (Carbon Tax) far more than the anti-tax 1634.  Spokane and Pierce show a much greater conservative bias than King County, voting more for the anti-tax 1634 than for either gun or energy control. Click to enlarge the graphs.

This graph below is the 'lesser 34' counties in WA. Note that Kitsap, Whatcom, and Thurston collectively show somewhat similar profiles:

• A strong yes vote on 1639 (gun control)
• Almost as strong yes vote on 1634 (anti Grocery tax),
• A lesser yes vote on 1631 (carbon tax)

Subjectively, these votes can be seen as representing a "purple populace": Supportive of gun control, scared of additional grocery taxes, and dismissive of energy control/carbon taxes. The 'purpalities' of Whatcom, Thurston, and Kitsap may well represent best the rural Republican / urban Democrat divide inherent to many midsize counties in WA. Click to enlarge the graphs.

When King County is included in graphs with all other counties, the weight of the size of its populace can be seen dramatically. Click to enlarge the graphs.

When King County is removed, the weights of Snohomish, Pierce, Spokane and Clark counties can be seen in relationship to remaining counties. Click to enlarge the graphs:

We can see patterns similar to the state for rural Republican / urban Democrat in Whatcom County precincts. Classic north county conservative precincts (102 - 132, 139 - 159, 400s, 600 - 800) voted more for 1634 than either 1631 or 1639. Most of Bellingham, Lake Whatcom, south Chuckanut (200s, 160 - 180) voted more for 1631 and 1639 than 1634.  Blaine, Ferndale, COB urban growth areas, Skagit border (133 - 138, 300s, 500s,181-183) have more of that purple mix indicative of Whatcom,  Kitsap, Thurston counties.

This data (should be) accurate as of 11/18/2018. Some small number of votes are still being counted.

         County Yes1631 Yes1634 Yes1639 No1631 No1634 No1639
 1:        Adams     828    2851    1486   3348   1343   2710
 2:       Asotin    2279    5765    3903   6738   3224   5148
 3:       Benton   17890   46546   28298  54996  24903  44532
 4:       Chelan   10842   19555   15011  22341  13443  18329
 5:      Clallam   15071   23181   19862  24392  16021  19723
 6:        Clark   78570  103232  104523 114271  88639  89068
 7:     Columbia     399    1333     615   1609    676   1405
 8:      Cowlitz   13237   25444   17182  30541  18747  27362
 9:      Douglas    3565    9851    5554  11265   4944   9329
10:        Ferry     836    2318     945   2466   1139   2542
11:     Franklin    5335   14590    8719  16500   7195  13078
12:     Garfield     229     893     363   1100    446    979
13:        Grant    5083   18741    8496  20579   7679  17935
14: Grays Harbor    8238   18904   11936  19745   9377  16436
15:       Island   17625   23941   23535  24183  17758  18558
16:    Jefferson   11531    9220   14025   8816  11327   6669
17:         King  550823  429703  730717 402746 520418 225600
18:       Kitsap   50993   68183   69107  69436  51850  51706
19:     Kittitas    6209   12350    8201  12913   6766  11086
20:    Klickitat    3523    5578    4077   6642   4534   6212
21:        Lewis    6930   21611   10050  26808  12046  23780
22:      Lincoln     821    3892    1369   4703   1626   4153
23:        Mason    8742   17729   12340  18911   9918  15388
24:     Okanogan    4969   10178    6055  11731   6466  10673
25:      Pacific    3638    6527    4875   7222   4275   6003
26: Pend Oreille    1547    4509    2059   5286   2318   4788
27:       Pierce  119892  205074  175865 203479 113575 147360
28:     San Juan    6931    4450    7862   3984   6326   3099
29:       Skagit   19442   31805   27757  33692  21095  25248
30:     Skamania    1871    2804    2178   3634   2659   3351
31:    Snohomish  125943  192751  189243 194778 126417 131996
32:      Spokane   74585  140725  111136 141546  75249 107168
33:      Stevens    4528   15876    5972  17488   6388  16375
34:     Thurston   55224   67572   71286  68762  56162  52859
35:    Wahkiakum     699    1281     857   1705   1126   1578
36:  Walla Walla    8167   14184   11432  15951   9919  12783
37:      Whatcom   53077   56756   65694  55700  50869  43396
38:      Whitman    7174    9321    9146   9679   7440   7766
39:       Yakima   19562   48194   29937  47419  20369  38425
          County Yes1631 Yes1634 Yes1639 No1631 No1634 No1639