The current WA State turnout percentage for Primary 2018 will be one of the highest for the 19 Primary elections since year 2000. The 1.7M votes will be the largest number of votes ever returned for a primary election in WA State. My initial inference is that the new stampless ballots are bringing an entire new voter pool into play. WA as a state is beset by both by rural poverty and independent voters. The nearest comparable Legislative District election year is a Presidential year (2016):
(Primary2018) - (Primary 2016)
1710872 - 1421841
[1] 289031
(Primary2018) / (Primary 2016)
1710872/1421841
[1] 1.203279
A twenty percent increase in votes for General Election 2018 because of stampless ballots means an entirely new voter profile for WA State.
10:04 AM 8/14/2018
County | Registered | Ballots | Turnout % | Updated | Next | Estimated |
Total | 4,299,119 | 1,710,872 | 39.80% | 8/13/2018 | 8/14/2018 | 32,140 |
5:34 PM | 4:00 PM |
# R 3.5 'data.table' code:
fread("WC_Historical_Election_Turnout.csv")[year(mdy(ElectionDate)) >= 2000 & !is.na(Turnout) & like(Description,"Primary"),][order(-Turnout)]
ElectionDate | Description | Counties | Precincts | Registered | Ballots | Turnout |
9/14/2004 | 2004 Primary | NA | NA | 3279205 | 1480247 | 45.14% |
8/19/2008 | Primary | 39 | 6674 | 3417355 | 1455756 | 42.60% |
8/17/2010 | Primary | 39 | 6778 | 3592079 | 1471791 | 40.97% |
9/19/2000 | 2000 Primary | NA | NA | 3234700 | 1319775 | 40.80% |
9/19/2006 | 2006 Primary | NA | NA | 3182209 | 1243992 | 39.09% |
8/7/2012 | Primary | 39 | 6978 | 3731657 | 1435928 | 38.48% |
8/2/2016 | Primary | 39 | 7147 | 4102624 | 1431058 | 34.88% |
5/24/2016 | Presidential Primary | 39 | 7142 | 4088029 | 1421841 | 34.78% |
9/17/2002 | 2002 Primary | NA | NA | 3238601 | 1107861 | 34.21% |
9/20/2005 | 2005 Primary | NA | NA | 2701807 | 863489 | 31.96% |
8/5/2014 | Primary | 39 | 6978 | 3925663 | 1222710 | 31.15% |
8/18/2009 | Primary | 32 | 4785 | 2334067 | 724598 | 31.04% |
8/16/2011 | Primary | 35 | 5123 | 2776149 | 819991 | 29.54% |
8/21/2007 | 2007 Primary | NA | NA | 2680339 | 757311 | 28.25% |
8/1/2017 | Primary | 35 | 6351 | 3781977 | 1017946 | 26.92% |
8/6/2013 | Primary | 36 | 3505 | 3221285 | 837098 | 25.99% |
8/4/2015 | Primary | 34 | 5917 | 3356735 | 817876 | 24.37% |
9/18/2001 | 2001 Primary | NA | NA | 323927 | 62657 | 19.34% |
9/16/2003 | 2003 Primary | NA | NA | 1076966 | 194001 | 18.01% |
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