Voting History Matplots : 2014 vs. 2016 (Part II)

Turnout rates from Voting Histories for the top 10 most populous WA Counties: Blue = 2016, Green = 2014, Red = 2017. Click to enlarge the chart.

In the last post I looked at voter participation (turnout) volumes from voter histories per county for General Elections 2014 - 2017 or GE 2014 - GE 2017. I now look at the top ten most populous WA counties. Each of these counties has over 100K registered voters in GE 2017. These top ten counties account for 82% of all registered voters in WA in GE 2017. The top five counties account for 66% of all registered voters in WA in GE 2017. But their rates of participation in the various election years show differences pictured above.

Some summary statistics in the table below show the variation in turnout between these three election years. Mean (average turnout rates)  for these top ten counties in these years step up and dow dramatically. Part of the reason for this could be that not all voters in 'local' election years are part of the election. However, ballot statistics from the WA SoS suggest otherwise for 2017.  Most probably, increased turnout in State Legislative year is reflective of increased campaign spending. By June 1st of 2018, over 25M had been reported contributed to WA candidates. This did not include those choosing the mini-reporting option. 

[R Summary Top 10 Counties]

    County            Active2017         PCT_GE14        PCT_GE16        PCT_GE17    

 Length:10          Min.   : 106585   Min.   :47.50   Min.   :70.90   Min.   :28.10  

 Class :character   1st Qu.: 144971   1st Qu.:50.77   1st Qu.:76.70   1st Qu.:31.35  

 Mode  :character   Median : 224445   Median :52.95   Median :77.45   Median :34.25  

                    Mean   : 350292   Mean   :53.23   Mean   :77.47   Mean   :35.39  

                    3rd Qu.: 415908   3rd Qu.:55.70   3rd Qu.:78.90   3rd Qu.:38.38  

                    Max.   :1278971   Max.   :59.80   Max.   :82.00   Max.   :45.90  


[R Summary Mean Top 10 Counties]

PCT_GE14        PCT_GE16        PCT_GE17
Mean   :53.23   Mean   :77.47   Mean   :35.39

[Total Voted and Active Voters for top ten counties: 2014, 2016, 2017]
      GE14    GE16    GE17 Active2014 Active2016 Active2017
1: 1703511 2763702 1283646    3220559    3516971    3502920

[Average Turnout from (above) GE_x/Active_x]

   TO14 TO16 TO17
1: 52.9 78.6 36.6

[Top Ten Counties = 82% of 2017 Active Voters]
[Top Five Counties = 66% of 2017 Active Voters]

    County Active2017 PCT_GE14 PCT_GE16 PCT_GE17

 1:     KI    1278971     53.4     81.4     42.7

 2:     PI     493546     50.0     74.3     28.6

 3:     SN     452957     51.3     79.0     32.7

 4:     SP     304761     56.4     77.3     34.2

 5:     CR     272703     50.6     76.6     30.9

 6:     TH     176186     52.5     77.0     34.3

 7:     KP     163903     56.0     78.6     38.5

 8:     WM     138660     59.8     82.0     45.9

 9:     YA     114648     47.5     70.9     28.1

10:     BE     106585     54.8     77.6     38.0

    County   GE14   GE15    GE16   GE17 Active2014 Active2015 Active2016 Active2017 PCT_GE14 PCT_GE16 PCT_GE17

 1:     KI 630954 467705 1041528 546164    1180954    1190495    1278767    1278971     53.4     81.4     42.7

 2:     PI 220796 153344  365263 141013     442012     453106     491902     493546     50.0     74.3     28.6

 3:     SN 213571 146941  360320 148060     416502     420838     456326     452957     51.3     79.0     32.7

 4:     SP 158829 120392  239207 104211     281502     287243     309295     304761     56.4     77.3     34.2

 5:     CR 126223  85533  210729  84252     249311     251145     275015     272703     50.6     76.6     30.9

 6:     TH  85419  60856  135947  60465     162644     165905     176669     176186     52.5     77.0     34.3

 7:     KP  86539  58936  130489  63119     154488     153403     165955     163903     56.0     78.6     38.5

 8:     WM  76112  61126  114895  63618     127241     129983     140079     138660     59.8     82.0     45.9

 9:     YA  50563  35402   80911  32207     106486     108824     114147     114648     47.5     70.9     28.1

10:     BE  54505  32613   84413  40537      99419      99594     108816     106585     54.8     77.6     38.0

Correlation Top 10 Counties

cor(t11[,.(PCT_GE14,PCT_GE16,PCT_GE17)],method="pearson")
         PCT_GE14 PCT_GE16 PCT_GE17
PCT_GE14    1.000    0.768    0.842
PCT_GE16    0.768    1.000    0.881
PCT_GE17    0.842    0.881    1.000

cor(t11[,.(PCT_GE14,PCT_GE16,PCT_GE17)],method="kendall")
         PCT_GE14 PCT_GE16 PCT_GE17
PCT_GE14    1.000    0.600    0.733
PCT_GE16    0.600    1.000    0.778
PCT_GE17    0.733    0.778    1.000

cor(t11[,.(PCT_GE14,PCT_GE16,PCT_GE17)],method="spearman")
         PCT_GE14 PCT_GE16 PCT_GE17
PCT_GE14    1.000    0.733    0.842
PCT_GE16    0.733    1.000    0.867
PCT_GE17    0.842    0.867    1.000

Correlation All WA Counties

cor(t10[,.(PCT_GE14,PCT_GE16,PCT_GE17)],method="pearson")
         PCT_GE14 PCT_GE16 PCT_GE17
PCT_GE14    1.000    0.769    0.837
PCT_GE16    0.769    1.000    0.655
PCT_GE17    0.837    0.655    1.000

cor(t10[,.(PCT_GE14,PCT_GE16,PCT_GE17)],method="kendall")
         PCT_GE14 PCT_GE16 PCT_GE17
PCT_GE14    1.000    0.611    0.561
PCT_GE16    0.611    1.000    0.551
PCT_GE17    0.561    0.551    1.000

cor(t10[,.(PCT_GE14,PCT_GE16,PCT_GE17)],method="spearman")
         PCT_GE14 PCT_GE16 PCT_GE17
PCT_GE14    1.000    0.784    0.734
PCT_GE16    0.784    1.000    0.708
PCT_GE17    0.734    0.708    1.000