Blaine School District 503 Proposition 2018-3 Technology and Capital Projects Levy

Blaine School District 503 Proposition 2018-3 Technology and Capital Projects Levy is winning by 237 votes as of Monday 4/30/2018. The Blaine School District showed strong anti-tax sentiment in comparison to the 2016 Blaine School District levy.  This race could have gone either way. The numbers below the break are from Friday, April 27. This race will be certified May 4.

Comparison

GE 2017 proved the most comparable of historic races for this Levy:

• 11848  # GE 2017 Blaine School District Precinct Voters Registered/Active
• 11807  # April 2018  "(as above)"
• 5183   # GE 2017 Blaine School District Precinct "Good" Ballots
• 4355   # April 2018 "(as above)"
• 3322   # "Good" Ballot Voters in common for GE 2017 and April 2018 to date

In the table below, Precincts 101 (Point Roberts) and all Blaine Precincts (300s) voted more "Yes" than "No" on the Levy. Surprisingly, so did Precincts 103,104,105,106,107. By my count, eight of the fifteen precincts who chose Robinson over Buchanan in 2017 voted more "Yes" than "No" on the Blaine School Levy in 2018!  Majority "No_Levy" precincts were 108,110,112,119.   A precinct correlation coefficient run  (1 : -1) shows Buchanan:Yes_Levy as .89 and Robinson:No_Levy  at .92 .   In a correlation coefficient, "1" is a perfect correlation. "0" is no correlation. "-1" is a perfect negative correlation.  So Yes_Levy and No_Levy correlate very highly with Buchanan (D) and Robinson(R) respectively.  But still, the  many Republicans had to vote for this levy for it to pass.  Below CS2016 = Clinton + Stein and TJ2016 =Trump + Johnson:

   PrecinctID Total_Precinct CS2016 TJ2016 Buchanan Robinson Yes_Levy No_Levy

 1:        101           1029    542    232      207      150      163     137

 2:        102            666    233    303      109      159      130     136

 3:        103            816    339    319      196      209      205     190

 4:        104            496    179    232      110      153      143     110

 5:        105            459    194    155       87      102      101      84

 6:        106            862    281    332      113      175      155     119

 7:        107           1068    373    450      157      238      201     153

 8:        108           1195    402    473      177      231      131     136

 9:        110            990    217    371      152      246      191     212

10:        112            211    131    188       26       52       23      37

11:        119            543    208    206      107      129       82     123

12:        301           1055    348    410      161      241      187     148

13:        302           1199    480    390      221      243      248     177

14:        303            868    371    371      216      282      243     223

15:        304            337    129    103       55       53       59      40

15 Blaine School District Precincts  with some previous election results. Click to Enlarge.

Blaine School District 503 ballots was mailed to nearly 12,000 voters. The  April 24th special election "levy would collect $2 million per year for six years for the purposes of district-wide capital improvements, acquisition of a future school site, and technology needs" according to the http://www.blaine.wednet.edu/bsd/2018CapitalLevyHandout.pdf website. Open drop boxes for this election were restricted to: 

480 Tyee Dr. Point Roberts
610 3rd St. Blaine Library
4581 Birch Bay-Lynden Rd (North Whatcom Fire & Rescue)
201 Grand Ave Downtown Bellingham

The Blaine School District was very purple for the General Election in 2016, but voted for Mary Kay Robinson over Barry Buchanan in 2017.  The last (2016)  Blaine school district levy passed with 68% of the vote.

Sums of 2016 GE and 2017 GE  Votes for 15 Blaine School District Precincts:

             [,1]

ClintonStein 4427

TrumpJohnson 4535

Clinton      4236

Stein         191

Trump        4102

Johnson       433

Buchanan     2094

Robinson     2663

February 2016 Blaine School District 503 Vote

Prcnt	Yes	No
Total	2887	1305
101	193	86
102	169	72
103	233	110
104	129	78
105	108	45
106	184	88
107	258	125
108	200	116
110	215	112
112	114	57
119	106	74
301	272	94
302	332	102
303	298	116
304	76	30