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| 42,890 active voters moved counties between 11.2016 and 12.2017. Click to enlarge the chart above to show what the top 20 migration flows looked liked. Thanks to consultant Kyle Walker for the clear instructions on using the networkD3 library. |
GE2016 to GE2017 Active Voter Migrations
Portrayed are cross county migrations of active voters. These migrations don't involve changes to or migrations from intra-county precincts. The top 4 migration paths:
oldCounty newCounty N
1 KI SN 4415
2 KI PI 3846
3 SN KI 3047
4 PI KI 2211
1 KI SN 4415
2 KI PI 3846
3 SN KI 3047
4 PI KI 2211
These migrations are not the dispositions of cancelled or (temporarily) inactive voters. There are a total 42,890 voters who were active in one county in November 2016 and then active in another county as of November 2017. These migrations represents about 1% of 2017 active voter database. All "PrecinctCode" changes/migrations total (374,400) for the same period. These "Precinct Code" changes/migrations are nearly 9% of the 2017 active voter database. That number includes all reorganized/renamed precincts. In such cases, the voter did not move, just their precinct name was changed.
In the left chart below, I plot linear and kernel density per precinct 2016 to 2017 migrations of between 500 - 800 per migration (e.g. oldPrecinct to newPrecinct) on the top row and 499 - 250 per migration on the bottom row. Many of these are probably Precinct reorganization and renaming. The right chart below plots linear and kernel density per precinct 2016 to 2017 migrations of between 249 - 10 per migration (e.g. oldPrecinct to newPrecinct) on the top row and less than 10 per migration on the bottom row.
The top 40 cross county migration paths are listed in the table 'Top 40 County Migrations: GE2016 - GE2017'. Far below is 'Top 40 Precinct Migrations: GE2016 - GE2017' . I use a CountyCode prefix on the precincts to avoid confusion in that table. The top 40 precincts migrations are probably the result of precinct reorganization.
Top 40 County Migrations: GE2016 - GE2017
oldCounty newCounty N1 KI SN 4415
2 KI PI 3846
3 SN KI 3047
4 PI KI 2211
5 KI KP 805
6 KI WM 761
7 PI TH 725
8 KI TH 562
9 WM KI 540
10 TH PI 521
11 KI SP 502
12 TH KI 448
13 KP KI 442
14 SP KI 419
15 CR CZ 391
16 PI KP 391
17 KP PI 370
18 KI IS 342
19 BE FR 337
20 SN PI 335
21 FR BE 322
22 SN SK 305
23 KI KS 292
24 SN WM 289
25 KI SK 279
26 CR KI 265
27 SN IS 260
28 KI CR 254
29 KI CH 242
30 PI SN 227
31 WM SK 218
32 WM SN 217
33 SN SP 210
34 CZ CR 203
35 KI CM 200
36 SP ST 196
37 IS SN 188
38 KI MA 185
39 TH LE 184
40 KI GY 183
Top 40 Precinct Migrations: GE2016 - GE2017
N oldPrecinct newPrecinct1 847 YA_133 YA_131
2 819 YA_3101 YA_3100
3 797 CR_692 CR_715
4 790 YA_188 YA_180
5 789 CR_360 CR_365
6 787 CR_447 CR_479
7 742 PI_2131 PI_2164
8 730 SP_6017 SP_6038
9 726 SP_7018 SP_7039
10 722 CR_120 CR_125
11 711 CR_200 CR_173
12 710 PI_2116 PI_2163
13 696 CR_500 CR_501
14 692 YA_184 YA_133
15 691 SP_6224 SP_6228
16 688 SP_7005 SP_7037
17 686 TH_30 TH_27
18 685 CR_180 CR_185
19 676 SP_4438 SP_4460
20 671 CR_456 CR_458
21 671 FR_1 FR_2
22 655 CH_560 CH_400
23 647 SK_321 SK_320
24 646 TH_704 TH_705
25 629 CR_697 CR_684
26 621 PI_29676 PI_29684
27 621 YA_186 YA_192
28 606 PI_26304 PI_26307
29 603 SP_4403 SP_4456
30 583 SP_6303 SP_6319
31 582 CR_573 CR_564
32 568 SP_4430 SP_4459
33 566 SP_4012 SP_4036
34 555 KI_3289 KI_3764
35 540 SP_4423 SP_4458
36 537 YA_180 YA_188
37 535 GY_801 GY_810
38 528 GY_802 GY_820
39 523 CR_550 CR_484
40 517 CR_610 CR_611
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