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Saturday, January 21, 2017

Some data on The Women's March: Are we Preaching to the "Liberal" Choir?

Below the break I have charts the top 50 cities ranked on their high estimates (which will change) based on Jeremy Pressman and Erica Chenoweth's latest data. Three charts (click to enlarge) cover cities 1-7, 8-30, 31-50 respectively. See table far below the break for a printed list of high and low crowd estimates of those fifty cities.  This is what strikes me:

"How many of these top 50 cities did Trump win?"

In our current "Hunger Games Electorate', are the "Capitol" cities marching and preaching to the "liberal' choir while rest of the "Districts" troll, laugh, or dismisses our 'liberal' efforts?  If so, how did the march actually help? 


We have to look at this type of criticism seriously. As far as I can tell, the Republicans just cracked the national political code without winning any major American cities nor many of the smaller ones. Trump won the U.S. counties more than 5:1?[1]. We lost the Congress, Senate, deepened losses in the Statehouses[2,3] and Governorships. Our Party is now powerless and leaderless. But worse than this: Republican statehouses have grown to such strength that Republicans are "one red statehouse away"[4] from a constitutional rewrite. And last fall, Republicans simulated a constitutional convention.

Who needs to appoint conservative Supreme Court Justices when you could simply rewrite the Constitution to forbid abortion? All those fine pink knitted hats aside, at some point very soon those of us who are Democrats actually have to develop an electoral strategy that can win. (For my thoughts on this see [5,6].)

So what can you do today? Here is my advice:
  • Join your local Democratic Party.
  • Join your local Legislative District 
  • Go to Democrat meetings. Participate. Donate.
  • Meet other Democrats.
  • Volunteer to Become a Precinct Captain of any vacant precincts or run for PCO! (Precinct Committee Officer)
  • Network with other Democrats.
  • Help us GOTV ("Get Out The Vote"). 
  • Help us train, support and run candidates.
  • Help us solve problems.
I know that some of you don't like the Democratic Party. Believe me, I really understand. But just because you don't like your family or they are hard to get along with doesn't necessarily mean you should run and hide. If you do, those of us that stay behind have all the load! We need your help. Washington is on the verge of losing both statehouses. The governership could fall soon after. Our voting systems and our liberal beliefs are protected only by you and me, brothers and sisters. Will you please help?


How did this march "bridge" the great electoral divide? Click on Charts to Enlarge. Bars are high estimates shaded with low estimates when different. I will update this data as it is amended. 


Top Seven Cities: LA, DC, NY, CHI, Boston, Denver, Seattle: How many Republicans in each of these cities?

Cities 8 - 30: There might be some Republican cities here. But a country made of the first five cities in this group  (Madison, Oakland, Portland, St.Paul, San Francisco) might have elected Ronald Dellums or Paul Wellstone chief proctor for life!

Cities 31 - 50: Lots of university towns. Where is "Trumpland" represented here?

Marching[,.(Country,City,Low,High)][order(-High)][1:50]
    Country          City    Low   High
 1:      US    LosAngeles 500000 750000
 2:      US    Washington 500000 680000
 3:      US       NewYork 400000 500000
 4:      US       Chicago 250000 250000
 5:      US        Boston 175000 200000
 6:      US        Denver 200000 200000
 7:      US       Seattle 120000 175000
 8:      US       Madison  75000 100000
 9:      US       Oakland  60000 100000
10:      US      Portland  70000 100000
11:      US       St.Paul  90000 100000
12:      US  SanFrancisco 100000 100000
13:      US       Atlanta  60000  60000
14:      US        Austin  30000  50000
15:      US  Philadelphia  50000  50000
16:      US      SanDiego  30000  40000
17:      US     DesMoines  26000  26000
18:      US    Pittsburgh  25000  25000
19:      US       SanJose  25000  25000
20:      US      SantaAna  20000  25000
21:      US   Albuquerque   6000  20000
22:      US       Houston  20000  20000
23:      US    Montpelier  15000  20000
24:      US     Nashville  15000  20000
25:      US       Phoenix  20000  20000
26:      US      St.Louis  20000  20000
27:      US St.Petersburg  20000  20000
28:      US    Sacramento  20000  20000
29:      US       Raleigh  17000  17000
30:      US       SantaFe  17000  17000
31:      US     Cleveland  15000  15000
32:      US      LasVegas   5000  15000
33:      US  OrangeCounty  15000  15000
34:      US   Tallahassee  15000  15000
35:      US        Tucson  15000  15000
36:      US         Omaha  12000  14000
37:      US  OklahomaCity  12000  12000
38:      US      AnnArbor  11000  11000
39:      US     Asheville   7000  10000
40:      US       Augusta  10000  10000
41:      US    Birmingham  10000  10000
42:      US     Charlotte  10000  10000
43:      US    Cincinnati   5000  10000
44:      US        Eugene   7000  10000
45:      US      Hartford  10000  10000
46:      US        Helena  10000  10000
47:      US  Indianapolis   4000  10000
48:      US        Ithaca  10000  10000
49:      US    KansasCity  10000  10000
50:      US       Lansing  10000  10000
    Country          City    Low   High

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