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| Whatcom County preferred party vote shares from 10.31.2016 'MatchBack' Report by AVReturnedDate. Click to enlarge. |
10,392 ballots were marked as received yesterday. 38,923 'Good' ballots have been cumulatively received for this election as of last night. The top AVBallotParty category from the (party preference) Presidential Primary is currently Democratic at 13,551. We are now more than ~39K registrants who have sent ballots received with at least 8 counting days (including next weekend) until the election is finished. This turnout projects like the ~104K ballot 2012 election to me. Among the more interesting features of the vote so far is the fact that ~4500 ballots have been received from active voters who did not vote in any of GE2015, May 24th or August 2nd elections. Those ~4500 had effectively not voted in over a year! This group is part of a much larger group of ~41K that remained active but have not voted in any of GE2015, May 24th, or August 2nd elections. ~41K is a very big pool in a now ~138K (active) voter database.
Another table below shows that three precinct 'decile' groups (210-219, 250-259, 220-229) have amassed over 1000 AVBallotParty Democrat votes each. As a reminder, the May 2nd Presidential Primary required a preferred party declaration. Those who were active that did not vote were marked "NO PARTY SELECTED" as thus:
PresPrimary[,.N,AVBallotParty]
AVBallotParty N
1: Republican 23882
2: NO PARTY SELECTED 77680
3: Democratic 31474
Today, what remains of those voters includes a fourth group ('NA') that registered or re-activated after the May 2nd Presidential Primary:
CurrentVoterdb[StatusCode == "A",.N,AVBallotParty] # as of 10/19/2016
AVBallotParty N
1: Republican 23514
2: NO PARTY SELECTED 72997
3: Democratic 30555
4: NA 11542
These groups can be tracked with each voter's registration ID and form the only true 'micro-target' data ever in the Whatcom County voter database. Some statistical analysis I did proved to me that essentially if voters told us they were Democrats or Republicans, then they voted respectively for a Democrat or Republican presidential candidate. However, as all of you know, ascertaining 'party shares" still doesn't mean that Berners will be voting now for Secretary Clinton or that casual Democratic voters will continue voting down the ballot for other Democratic candidates or that voters that declared themselves one party or the other won't 'split the ticket' on many issues on their ballot. More tables and data after the break...
5:23 PM 10/31/2016 -RMF
[1] "Active registrants in Whatcom County voterdb: 138532"
[1] "MatchBacks total all returned status: 40043"
[1] "Unique Registrants in matchbacks 39299"
AVReturnStatus N
1: 99247
2: Good 38923
3: Void 721
4: Challenged 277
5: Undeliverable 122
AVReturnChallenge N
1: 138891
2: No Signature Match 181
3: Undeliverable 122
4: No Signature 55
5: Wrong Voter's Signature 14
6: Electronic 10
7: Second Ballot Received 7
8: ID Required 6
9: Z - Other 2
10: No Ballot 1
11: Letter doesn't match env. 1
[1] "Good Ballots by Preferred Party:"
AVBallotParty N
1: Democratic 13551
2: NO PARTY SELECTED 12819
3: Republican 9941
4: NA 2612
[1] "By PrecinctID 'Decile' or precinct group e.g. PID_DEC '60' == ( PrecinctID >= 600 & PrecinctID <= 609 ) or precinct range 600:609."
PID_DEC Democratic NO PARTY SELECTED Republican NA
1: 21 1119 853 402 160
2: 25 1047 796 179 281
3: 22 1032 787 245 239
4: 20 963 780 448 159
5: 24 952 740 314 281
6: 23 889 752 382 131
7: 17 862 721 421 144
8: 13 818 777 535 121
9: 26 750 630 250 125
10: 16 702 704 471 91
11: 10 675 662 601 151
12: 50 628 597 605 96
13: 14 503 751 1016 120
14: 12 482 603 653 84
15: 15 455 585 578 64
16: 11 451 603 770 96
17: 30 368 336 339 94
18: 60 367 654 1029 113
19: 18 324 321 169 59
20: 40 90 107 127 22
21: 61 68 124 290 17
22: 80 46 75 83 17
23: 70 41 69 83 8
[1] "Top 40 'Democratic' precincts by AVBallotParty:"
PrecinctID Democratic NO PARTY SELECTED Republican NA
1: 250 225 127 38 28
2: 201 208 121 111 27
3: 225 167 116 30 67
4: 208 164 161 44 32
5: 222 160 128 32 13
6: 169 159 137 73 18
7: 210 157 102 16 16
8: 258 145 106 17 38
9: 213 144 112 54 14
10: 215 144 107 18 6
11: 244 143 100 28 27
12: 256 143 99 22 19
13: 138 141 98 35 15
14: 216 138 69 23 12
15: 175 137 92 45 19
16: 171 131 109 52 16
17: 302 131 115 98 26
18: 505 131 101 76 17
19: 251 130 104 18 22
20: 239 128 133 59 26
21: 232 127 103 62 19
22: 249 126 118 61 15
23: 134 125 113 65 15
24: 227 125 83 18 25
25: 101 124 90 36 24
26: 240 123 104 47 19
27: 303 121 119 137 35
28: 178 118 113 40 19
29: 182 115 92 75 25
30: 202 115 64 56 13
31: 262 115 85 32 20
32: 103 114 95 78 19
33: 263 114 90 21 29
34: 219 112 76 42 13
35: 266 112 105 46 13
36: 231 111 73 35 29
37: 203 109 95 81 22
38: 234 109 99 67 6
39: 181 108 132 55 19
40: 107 107 115 119 32
[1] "AVReturnedDate"
AVReturnedDate N
1: 10/31/2016 10392
2: 10/28/2016 6741
3: 10/27/2016 5028
4: 10/26/2016 5294
5: 10/25/2016 6244
6: 10/24/2016 4589
7: 10/21/2016 79
8: 10/20/2016 79
9: 10/19/2016 158
10: 10/18/2016 65
11: 10/17/2016 100
12: 10/14/2016 16
13: 10/13/2016 77
14: 10/12/2016 460
[1] "AVReturnDate by AVBallotParty"
AVReturnedDate Democratic NO PARTY SELECTED Republican NA
1: 10/31/2016 3042 3849 2782 719
2: 10/28/2016 2154 2336 1777 474
3: 10/27/2016 1698 1701 1325 304
4: 10/26/2016 1829 1607 1480 378
5: 10/25/2016 2517 1837 1524 366
6: 10/24/2016 2089 1285 953 262
7: 10/21/2016 23 31 16 9
8: 10/20/2016 13 42 12 12
9: 10/19/2016 61 47 38 12
10: 10/18/2016 13 27 5 20
11: 10/17/2016 19 52 5 24
12: 10/14/2016 3 9 2 2
13: 10/13/2016 30 27 9 11
14: 10/12/2016 141 177 62 80
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