GE 2016: The Balkanized 42nd LD and a 40,000 strong Trump Vote in Whatcom County

The red/blue (Clinton - Trump) division of Whatcom County GE 2016.

I spent the weekend going over Whatcom County results.  The data in this post will be good until 5:00 PM Wednesday, 11/16/2016. Observations, final thoughts and a plea for your LD 42 Democratic membership follow. The google sheets data for this page can be found here and here. Note: Spreadsheet data updated to 11/18/2016:

The Real Effect of the "Third Party" Vote probably suppressed Trump voters

Jill Stein is nowhere on the NYT Presidential map. They just don't list her unless you check the individual states. When you do, you find her votes are much lower everywhere than Gary Johnson. Gary Johnson is everywhere. Personally, I find it hard to believe a libertarian such as Johnson would have taken votes away from Clinton in any substantive manner. I've read arguments to the contrary:  I think those arguments lack credulity. Obviously, many people who voted third party wouldn't necessarily have voted for President at all.  But if a strong part of Johnson's vote would have passed to Trump, he could have  won any or all of NV, CO, MN, NM, or NH . All of these were states where Johnson's vote closed tight on the Clinton win margin. Trump even could have won more decisively in FL and MI. Check the counties map. If this indeed was a fair election, most of the *county and local governments*  across the US are indeed part of 'Trumpland'. 

Did you  *really believe* Trump Supporters were a small group here?

(North)Western Washington held back the red tide for our state. (Check the NYT WA state map.)  But with the exception of King County, most blue counties are under red siege. I have these numbers to date for Whatcom County Presidential for the Democratic, Republican and 'strong' third party candidates only:

Race	LD42	LD40	All
President/VicePresident_DonaldJ.Trump/MichaelR.Pence	32227	8020	40247
President/VicePresident_GaryJohnson/BillWeld	3310	1435	4745
President/VicePresident_HillaryClinton/TimKaine	34269	25133	59402
President/VicePresident_JillStein/AjamuBaraka	1761	1193	2954

Democrats won the Presidency in both LDs, but the 3:1 Dem:Repub turnout ratio for Clinton/Trump in the smaller LD 40 really made the difference in the final totals. When the votes are all in, well over 40K will have voted for Trump/Pence in Whatcom County.  Is it surprising that 8020 of those votes were in LD 40?   Or that 8,487 came from Bellingham 200 series precincts? Patty Murray also won in LD 42 (and county wide), but Democrats Jay Inslee, Cyrus Habib, Hilary Franz  would have lost if not for LD 40. You can say Jay Inslee battled Bill Bryant to a draw in the LD42 (35,579 vs. 35,906 to date). But Governor Inslee is still 327 votes behind in LD 42 and if it weren't for LD 40, Whatcom County would have elected Bill Bryant Governor. 

A Balkanized LD 42? A Divided County?

LD 40 votes were *not enough* to save Tina Podlodowski (-9K in LD42) and could not save LD42 candidates Sharlaine LaClair (-7K) or Tracy Atwood(-11K). Whatcom County has not elected a Democrat to represent  the LD 42 Statehouse positions or the LD 42 Senate for the last four elections. You can say we voted more Yes than No on the EMS Levy in LD42. But the county needs 60% to pass that levy. Without  LD 40 voting more than 2:1 yes that measure wouldn't have stood a chance. My math says we are at 59.9%  as of 11/15 with very few votes left to count:

Race	LD42	LD40	All
Property Tax Levy for Emergency Medical Services_No	31742	10660	42402
Property Tax Levy for Emergency Medical Services_Yes	39275	24084	63359

The news on the levies isn't all bad: Bellingham school bus and Greenways passed overwhelmingly in LD 42  at the similar ratios as LD 40, but that was because only the 32 precincts (28% of all LD42) from Bellingham voted on them! So perhaps we are "balkanized" LD42.  Much of LD42 is student, young, apartment dwelling, racially heterogeneous, suffering from low income or poverty. Given this profile, I think LD 42 should produce Democratic victories *all the time*.  If we don't increase our Democratic base here, my thesis is the robust growth now occurring all over LD42 will swallow the strength of a smaller and more (buildable land) constrained LD40 at some point:

              DistrictName         N (Registrants)

1: 42nd Legislative District 93916

2: 40th Legislative District  44693

All Aboard the Buys-Van Werven-Ericksen-Trump Train

This was a huge turnout for Whatcom County. At least 114K out of 138K when all the votes are tabulated (~82%).  My belief that Rs would run out of down ballot LD42 votes at a high enough turnout *vaporized under a wave of Trump supporters*. My spreadsheet link for the LD splits is here.

Right now, we are all on the Buys-Van Werven-Ericksen-Trump Train whether we voted Republican or not!  When I attend LD 42 meetings and Democrat meetings I am saddened by the demographics. There are a few people who are young (20s and 30s) and many of us who are over 50. Let's just say, we appear to me to be missing the "parents with small children" demographic. All of us want the Democratic Party to win, but some of us who have seen our best years pass know that we can't do this without an increase in membership of youth and families.

Most of you who are reading this reside in one of the 120 precincts in  the LD 42. Some of you probably just don't know it. If you voted for either Sharlaine LaClair or Tracy Atwood, you are in the LD 42 and you are probably a Democrat!  I would guess we have about 60 attending our regular meetings. There are 93,916 registrants in what appears to be a very evenly split LD 42.

Statehouse losses have facilitated the slide into "Trumpland"

This is no singular battle. Democrats are fighting hard to keep control of statehouses across the nation and here in WA. Fighting and often losing. Statehouse control is important. Governor Inslee's Democratic agenda is effectively handcuffed with Republican statehouse majorities. States that lose control of their statehouses and governerships, lose control of a lot including voting laws, procedures and practices! Much of 'Trumpland' has Republican Governors and Republican statehouses.

If you are a  Democratic PCO in the 42nd, you should come to our meetings. If you are concerned about your community, the political direction of your LD, your representatives, you should come to our meetings. Sign up to receive emails: info@42dems.org or https://www.facebook.com/42ndLDdems/app/100265896690345.

Ryan Matthew Ferris

Democratic Elect PCO 208

https://www.facebook.com/WhatcomPrecinct208/

Appendix:

All data from 11/15/2016.  The data in this post will be good until 5:00 PM Wednesday, 11/16/2016. 

Who are you LD 42?:

Signs that the 42nd LD voted Republican:

• Voted for Steve McLauglin(R) over Hilary Franz(D) (36,6683 vs. 33,548). The 40th LD give Franz her ~10K lead in Whatcom County by voting Franz more than 2:1.
• Voted for Robert J. Sutherland(R) over Suzan DelBene(D) (29,955 vs. 22,636). The small part of the 40th in CD 1 can't help DelBene enough. Whatcom County votes for Sutherland(R) by 7K.
• Voted essentially even in WA Governors Race: Bill Bryant(R) 36,634 vs. Jay Inslee(D) 36,461. The 40th LD gives Inslee his nearly 14K victory margin in Whatcom County by voting for him much more than 2:1.
• Votes Marty McClendon(R) over Cyrus Habib(D) (36,216 vs. 35,099). The 40th gives Habib his 13.5K lead over McClendon by voting well more than 2:1 for the Democrat.
• Votes strongly for Trump/Pence (32,227) but also strongly for Clinton/Kaine (34,269) The 40th LD gives Clinton/Kaine a ~19K margin of victory in Whatcom County by voting Clinton/Kaine 3:1 !
• Choosing Kim Wyman(R) over Tina Podlodowski(D) by 9K Votes. Podlodowski is losing in Whatcom County by 629 votes.
• Choosing Luanne Van Werven(R) over Sharlaine LaClair(D) by nearly 7K votes.
• Choosing Vincent Buys(R) over over Tracy Atwood(D) by more than 11K votes.

Signs that the 42nd LD voted Democrat:

• Votes for Erin Jones(D) over Chris Reykdal(D) with a similar percentage as the 40th.

• OSPI Race	LD42	LD40	All
  Chris Reykdal	26607	12254	38861
  Erin Jones	32564	17039	49603

• Supported preventing firearms access to extreme risk individuals 44,907(Yes) vs. 27,552 (No)
• Rather handily chooses a 'liberal' slate  (Yu, Madsen,Wiggins) of WA Supreme Court Justices over more conservative slate (DeWolf, Zempel, Larson) at each position.
• Votes for Patty Murray(D) over Chris Vance(R) by nearly 4K (38,460 vs. 34,626)
• Votes for Bill Bryant(R) over Jay Inslee(D) but only by 173 Votes! 
• Votes for Bob Ferguson(D) Attorney General by ~17K.
• Votes Yes on EMS by 7K. (39,275 vs 31,742)
• That part of the 42nd that lives in Bellingham (32 precincts with 28% of LD 42 registration = 25,911) voted overwhelmingly for School Bus and Greenways Levies; At least 2:1 for each.
• Votes Clinton/Kaine over Trump/Pence by ~2K

Links:

All data from 11/15/2016.  The data in this post will be good until 5:00 PM Wednesday, 11/16/2016. 

NYT Presidential Election Coverage:
http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/president

Spreadsheet data for this post is derived from:

http://results.vote.wa.gov/results/20161108/whatcom and
http://results.vote.wa.gov/results/20161108/export/20161108_WhatcomPrecincts.csv

Spreadsheet data updated to 11/18/2016:
LD split spreadsheet from my google drive:
https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B9RoDKQADMNGajRZVkhMMTh6RXc

Spreadsheet data updated to 11/18/2016:
Precinct data per candidate or otherwise:
https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B9RoDKQADMNGMlo5bTBJdC1lVnc


Herald on EMS Levy:

www.bellinghamherald.com/news/politics-government/election/local-election/article113535333.html 


Statehouse losses in GE 2016:

http://www.attn.com/stories/12765/democrats-lose-control-of-state-legislatures 

Wikipedia picture LD 42:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:LD_42.pdf 

LD 42 Dems link:
http://wp.42dems.org

https://www.facebook.com/42ndLDdems

List of Dem PCOs:

http://whatcomdemocrats.com/content/precinct-committee-officers-pcos