Withering Primary Participation in Whatcom County and WA ahead of August 2nd Primary

May 24th and August 2nd  (2016) Primaries in Whatcom County: Comparing 'AVReturnedDate' by volume. Click to Enlarge.

Whether because of summering students or depressed Berners, primary participation in Whatcom County and across WA is unimpressive to date. After a strong weekend showing of 3,990 ballots on Monday, an underwhelming 430 ballots were received today (Tuesday) bringing Whatcom County's turnout to 12,557 (9.49%) with five (5) counting weekdays left. It is an unfair comparison due to student participation in May, but the recent Presidential Primary had 30,869 ballots received in the same number of days ahead of May 24th, 2016.  Most of the state is doing no better than us: www.sos.wa.gov/elections/research/Ballot-Return-Statistics.aspx.
The May 24th Presidential Primary allowed for the field "AVBallotParty" or "Party Preference". That matchback was divided up into only "Democratic", "Republican" party preference voters. "NO PARTY SELECTED" was the party preference given to all those active registrants that did not vote on May 24th. Merging "AVBallotParty" with existing Registration IDs gives an indication of how those party preference voters are casting their votes so far in this August 2nd primary election.  Click to enlarge the chart sbelow. Notes: The vertical axes differ by 10x(!!) between the primaries. The point on these graphs are 'cumulative sums' (in R the function 'cumsum()').

Millennial (BirthYear >= 1980) participation is vastly different in these two primaries to date:

"Presidential Primary (May 24th) Birth Year >= 1980"
    year     N
1: FALSE 43604
2:  TRUE 11077

"August 2nd (as of 07/26/2016) Primary Birth Year >= 1980"
    year     N
1: FALSE 11412
2:  TRUE  1141

[More Data:]

[1] "AVReturnedDate for August 2nd Primary as of:2016-07-26"
   AVReturnedDate      n
1                 119170
2      07/13/2016     96
3      07/14/2016      5
4      07/18/2016   1001
5      07/19/2016    378
6      07/20/2016   1830
7      07/21/2016   4004
8      07/22/2016   1463
9      07/25/2016   3990
10     07/26/2016    430


[1] "General Data:"
[1] "Total Registrants:"
[1] 132367
[1] "Ballots returned marked 'Good' as of MatchBack Date:"
[1] 12557
[1] "Percentage Turnout to date:"
[1] 9.49

[1] "Return Status table:"
  AVReturnStatus      n
1                119150
2     Challenged     89
3           Good  12557
4  Undeliverable    551
5           Void     20

[1] "Count of AVReturnStatus == 'Good' when merged with Presidential Primary"
[1] 12432

[1] "Table of known good with AVBallotParty."
      AVBallotParty     n
1        Democratic  5402
2 NO PARTY SELECTED  2718
3        Republican  4312

"Top 20 Precincts AVReturnStatus == 'Good':"
    AVReturnStatus PrecinctID   N
 1:           Good        201 181
 2:           Good        303 173
 3:           Good        601 163
 4:           Good        107 137
 5:           Good        250 134
 6:           Good        203 127
 7:           Good        610 126
 8:           Good        225 125
 9:           Good        103 125
10:           Good        126 124
11:           Good        208 122
12:           Good        302 117
13:           Good        202 114
14:           Good        101 114
15:           Good        213 113
16:           Good        131 113
17:           Good        145 112
18:           Good        301 112
19:           Good        256 111
20:           Good        211 110

"Top 20 AVBallotParty table by (desc)Democratic:"
    PrecinctID Democratic NO PARTY SELECTED Republican
 1:        201        100                32         49
 2:        250         79                37         18
 3:        225         78                29         21
 4:        256         74                22         15
 5:        208         71                25         24
 6:        101         69                23         22
 7:        244         67                29         12
 8:        202         65                12         35
 9:        258         61                23          4
10:        222         60                15          7
11:        303         60                33         77
12:        134         57                21         30
13:        263         55                20         11
14:        265         55                18         25
15:        213         54                28         30
16:        103         53                32         37
17:        127         52                 8         26
18:        171         52                20         26
19:        203         52                22         53
20:        210         51                12          6


"Top 20 AVBallotParty table by (desc)Republican:"
    PrecinctID Democratic NO PARTY SELECTED Republican
 1:        601         38                27         96
 2:        610         14                23         86
 3:        303         60                33         77
 4:        107         40                27         67
 5:        126         37                24         66
 6:        131         29                26         60
 7:        144         10                17         60
 8:        115         23                19         57
 9:        145         25                26         57
10:        609         23                21         57
11:        602         22                27         56
12:        604         22                10         54
13:        203         52                22         53
14:        606         20                20         53
15:        608         21                21         50
16:        201        100                32         49
17:        148         28                11         48
18:        182         44                16         48
19:        140         12                20         47
20:        211         40                21         46