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Friday, April 1, 2016

The Bernie Effect in Whatcom County

Note: This is for Whatcom County voterdb data only. For WA state data on "The Bernie Effect" please see links here.
The Bernie Effect: Change totals for voter registration are up 335% in the first three months of 2016 over  the same period in 2015. This may include as many as 4,295 new registrations.  Click to enlarge.  Most data below  the break is for "Registration Date" changes for the period January 1 - March 30, 2016.



Status Reason for "Registration Date" changes in 2016


                                   StatusReason    N
 1:            Added by WEI Statewide Online Reg 3464
 2:                  Re-registration; no changes  918
 3:                        Original Registration  831
 4:        Re-registration due to Address change  274
 5:                 Updated by WEI Statewide ACS  136
 6:                             Confirm by voter  134
 7:           Re-registration due to Name change   33
 8:              Address Updated by WEI Addr Chg   26
 9:    Third Party Change of Address (In-County)   18
10:                 Verification Notice Returned   18
11: Re-Registration due to Name & Address Change   12

Birth Years for "Registration Date" changes in 2016 from birth year 1975

    year  V1
 1: 1998 177
 2: 1997 362
 3: 1996 298
 4: 1995 330
 5: 1994 242
 6: 1993 249
 7: 1992 249
 8: 1991 222
 9: 1990 190
10: 1989 163
11: 1988 161
12: 1987 135
13: 1986 142
14: 1985 144
15: 1984 132
16: 1983 109
17: 1982  92
18: 1981  96
19: 1980  90
20: 1979  93
21: 1978  81
22: 1977  77
23: 1976  73
24: 1975  58

Residence City of "Registration Date" changes

               ResidenceCity    N
 1:                Bellingham 3963
 2:                  Ferndale  503
 3:                    Blaine  421
 4:                    Lynden  377
 5:                   Everson  162
 6:               Maple Falls   85
 7:             Sedro-Woolley   65
 8:                    Deming   61
 9:                    Custer   54
10:                     Sumas   47
11:              Lummi Island   34
12:                Pt Roberts   33
13:                  Nooksack   30
14:                      Acme   16
15:                   Glacier   11
16:                  Rockport    3


PrecinctID (top 40) for "Registration Date" changes:




    PrecinctID   N
 1:        253 147
 2:        225 122
 3:        247 114
 4:        231  98
 5:        229  90
 6:        228  85
 7:        206  84
 8:        246  84
 9:        226  82
10:        257  81
11:        230  76
12:        208  70
13:        244  66
14:        263  66
15:        175  65
16:        182  63
17:        108  61
18:        204  60
19:        211  60
20:        505  60
21:        220  59
22:        227  59
23:        239  58
24:        248  56
25:        249  56
26:        135  55
27:        203  52
28:        212  52
29:        262  52
30:        301  52
31:        178  50
32:        148  49
33:        219  49
34:        258  49
35:        201  46
36:        214  43
37:        302  42
38:        169  41
39:        213  41
40:        508  41
...

This data use all active voter list as of 03/30/2016.

data.table(vdbA[RegistrationYear == 2015 & StatusReason == "Original Registration",xtabs(~RegistrationMonth)])
    RegistrationMonth    N
 1:                 1   58
 2:                 2   61
 3:                 3   62
 4:                 4   68
 5:                 5   81
 6:                 6   94
 7:                 7  174
 8:                 8  157
 9:                 9 1254
10:                10  541
11:                11  107
12:                12  104
 data.table(vdbA[RegistrationYear == 2016 & StatusReason == "Original Registration",xtabs(~RegistrationMonth)])
   RegistrationMonth   N
1:                 1 176
2:                 2 264
3:                 3 391

 data.table(vdbA[RegistrationYear == 2016 & StatusReason == "Added by WEI Statewide Online Reg",xtabs(~RegistrationMonth)])
   RegistrationMonth    N
1:                 1  723
2:                 2  883
3:                 3 1858
 data.table(vdbA[RegistrationYear == 2015 & StatusReason == "Added by WEI Statewide Online Reg",xtabs(~RegistrationMonth)])
    RegistrationMonth   N
 1:                 1 317
 2:                 2 252
 3:                 3 312
 4:                 4 342
 5:                 5 342
 6:                 6 397
 7:                 7 528
 8:                 8 633
 9:                 9 848
10:                10 756
11:                11 512
12:                12 538

 arrange(data.table(vdbA[,xtabs(~StatusReason)]),desc(N))
                                       StatusReason     N
 1:               Added by WEI Statewide Online Reg 19438
 2:       Third Party Change of Address (In-County) 18417
 3:                     Re-registration; no changes 15260
 4:                                                 14543
 5:                           Original Registration 13066
 6:                 Address Updated by WEI Addr Chg 10424
 7:                    Updated by WEI Statewide ACS 10252
 8:           Re-registration due to Address change  9611
 9:     A - Phone/Email update from ballot envelope  9256
10:                               Office Correction  5742
11:                        Precinct Line Adjustment  2200
12:              Re-registration due to Name change  1092
13:          Name Updated by WEI Statewide Addr Chg  1020
14:  Name/Address Updated by WEI Statewide Addr Chg   832
15:                                Confirm by voter   575
16:                    Verification Notice Returned   283
17:                     Confirmed 3PCOA (In-County)   236
18:    Re-Registration due to Name & Address Change   181
19: Z - Re-registration due to Seasonal Update Card   154
20:                Re-registration; Signed Petition    24
21:                        Cancel 45 Day No Contact     4
22:                 Confirmed 3PCOA (Undeliverable)     3
23:   Third Party Change of Address (Out-of-County)     3
24:   Third Party Change of Address (Undeliverable)     2
25:                   2016-03-17 11:27:33.570000000     1
26:                     Registered in another State     1
27:                              Requested by Voter     1
                                       StatusReason     N
 arrange(data.table(vdbA[RegistrationYear == 2016,xtabs(~StatusReason)]),desc(N))
                                    StatusReason    N
 1:            Added by WEI Statewide Online Reg 3464
 2:                  Re-registration; no changes  918
 3:                        Original Registration  831
 4:        Re-registration due to Address change  274
 5:                 Updated by WEI Statewide ACS  136
 6:                             Confirm by voter  134
 7:           Re-registration due to Name change   33
 8:              Address Updated by WEI Addr Chg   26
 9:    Third Party Change of Address (In-County)   18
10:                 Verification Notice Returned   18
11: Re-Registration due to Name & Address Change   12
12:                2016-03-17 11:27:33.570000000    1
13:       Name Updated by WEI Statewide Addr Chg    1
> arrange(data.table(vdbA[RegistrationYear == 2015,xtabs(~StatusReason)]),desc(N))
                                      StatusReason    N
 1:              Added by WEI Statewide Online Reg 5777
 2:                          Original Registration 2761
 3:                    Re-registration; no changes 1045
 4:          Re-registration due to Address change  827
 5:                Address Updated by WEI Addr Chg  396
 6:      Third Party Change of Address (In-County)  394
 7:                   Updated by WEI Statewide ACS  327
 8:                               Confirm by voter  318
 9:             Re-registration due to Name change   75
10:                   Verification Notice Returned   52
11:   Re-Registration due to Name & Address Change   35
12:         Name Updated by WEI Statewide Addr Chg   22
13: Name/Address Updated by WEI Statewide Addr Chg    6
14:                              Office Correction    2

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