Editor's note: Are you a WA candidate that needs information like the data and analysis below for your campaign? I am considering marketing my data analytic services this year. If you are interested, you can find me from my blogger profile. -RMF
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| The data above is from a 1/27/2016 voterdb history. On the left, the rainbow background and the fading shadows in front of it show the per precinct difference between registered voters and participation in the GE 2014 and GE 2015 balloting. (The most recent voter birth years are not included.) Curiously, despite heavy registration of those under 65, voter turnout has collapsed as it heads toward the youngest birth years in Whatcom County. Click on the graphs to enlarge. |
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| The dense band of mean birth years of registered voters between years 1960 and 1970 is a statistical mirage brought about by heavy registration of both boomers and millenials on either side. GenXrs are the bluish trough (far top left chart) between prewars + boomers and millenials, + perhaps Gen "Z". At right, a relatively high SD per precinct helps hide an accurate assessment of voter age in Whatcom County. More age statistics are below. Click on the graphs to enlarge. |
Whatcom County's current registered voter database is clearly an aging group:
- [1] "Ages 17 - 35:35,850"
- [1] "Ages 36 - 54:37,222"
- [1] "Ages 55 - 110:56,040"
- [1] "Ages 17 - 24 e.g. Student Vote:8,384"
- [1] "Ages 65 - 110 e.g. Retirement Vote:32,856"
1 1994 2542
2 1954 2473
3 1953 2467
4 1952 2453
5 1951 2424
6 1947 2403
7 1993 2374
8 1950 2351
9 1957 2346
10 1992 2327
11 1955 2307
12 1949 2289
13 1948 2277
14 1956 2270
15 1959 2263
16 1991 2232
17 1996 2218
18 1958 2215
19 1960 2206
20 1990 2194
Age data: Top 25 Precincts by youngest Mean Birth years. Twenty one of the twenty-five are in Bellingham (200)series precincts. Here are the six youngest by virtue of the lowest 'MAD' or median absolute deviation.
PID Registered Mean Median StDEV MAD Min Max Variance CoVarPCT SE
1 245 1302 1995 1996 1 1 1983 1997 1 0.0631 0.0349
2 252 495 1994 1996 6 1 1930 1997 48 0.350 0.314
3 253 1155 1984 1992 16 4 1915 1998 260 0.813 0.475
4 257 659 1982 1992 18 4 1928 1997 328 0.914 0.706
5 247 831 1981 1989 15 7 1919 1997 241 0.784 0.539
6 226 626 1980 1990 18 7 1919 1997 334 0.923 0.731
The age 36 and older voters are an important group. Their weighty presence overwhelms youth in Whatcom County. Here "1" = ballot counted.
[1] "Participation of those currently registered in the last GE (2015) for BirthDate <= 1981; e.g. Age 36 or older."
- BallotCounted2015 Count
- 1 1 52464
- 2 0 39668
- BallotCounted2015 Count
- 1 0 27144
- 2 1 9063
ResidenceCity n
- 1 Bellingham 74982
- 2 Ferndale 14394
- 3 Lynden 13108
- 4 Blaine 10419
- 5 Everson 4993
Despite our reputation as a rural outpost, the numbers below suggest rural and non-incorporated Whatcom County has limited electoral power:
- 6 Custer 1913
- 7 Deming 1783
- 8 Maple Falls 1769
- 9 Sumas 1429
- 10 Sedro-Woolley 1245
- 11 Pt Roberts 917
- 12 Nooksack 807
- 13 Lummi Island 715
- 14 Acme 412
- 15 Glacier 197
- 16 Rockport 30
Women continue to have a strong lead in registered voters. In Whatcom County, 140 out of 177 counties have more women than men. Surprisingly, the strong female electorate occurs in wide ranging locales.
[1] "Gender:"
Gender n
1 F 67305
2 M 61801
3 7
[1] "Top 25 Precincts by Percentage Female:"
PrecinctID Females Count PCT_female
1 202 369 590 0.62542372881355934
2 265 331 561 0.59001782531194291
3 201 762 1304 0.58435582822085885
4 218 424 726 0.58402203856749313
5 610 501 867 0.57785467128027679
6 203 516 894 0.57718120805369133
7 248 340 596 0.57046979865771807
8 608 418 736 0.56793478260869568
9 504 257 453 0.56732891832229582
10 252 280 495 0.56565656565656564
...
Profile Data below is for Active Voters 01/27/2015. For more information see R code here.
[1] "Active Voters:129113"
[1] "Inactive Voters:13178"
[1] "Cancelled Voters:26540"
[1] "Last Update Year:"
year(ymd_hms(as.character(voterdb$Las... n
1 2015 26733
2 2014 26558
3 2005 18974
4 2013 12739
5 2008 11069
6 2012 9273
7 2010 7169
8 2011 5928
9 2009 4189
10 2006 2897
11 2007 2744
12 2016 840
[1] "Status Reason:"
StatusReason n
1 Third Party Change of Address (In-County) 18096
2 Added by WEI Statewide Online Reg 17155
3 14892
4 Re-registration; no changes 14810
5 Original Registration 13148
6 Updated by WEI Statewide ACS 9887
7 Re-registration due to Address change 9599
8 A - Phone/Email update from ballot envelope 9573
9 Address Updated by WEI Addr Chg 9374
10 Office Correction 5981
11 Precinct Line Adjustment 2264
12 Re-registration due to Name change 1088
13 Name Updated by WEI Statewide Addr Chg 977
14 Name/Address Updated by WEI Statewide Addr Chg 784
15 Confirm by voter 561
16 Verification Notice Returned 290
17 Confirmed 3PCOA (In-County) 252
18 Re-Registration due to Name & Address Change 178
19 Z - Re-registration due to Seasonal Update Card 163
20 Re-registration; Signed Petition 27
21 Cancel 45 Day No Contact 4
22 Confirmed 3PCOA (Undeliverable) 3
23 Third Party Change of Address (Out-of-County) 3
24 Third Party Change of Address (Undeliverable) 2
25 Registered in another State 1
26 Requested by Voter 1
[1] "Residence City:"
ResidenceCity n
1 Bellingham 74982
2 Ferndale 14394
3 Lynden 13108
4 Blaine 10419
5 Everson 4993
6 Custer 1913
7 Deming 1783
8 Maple Falls 1769
9 Sumas 1429
10 Sedro-Woolley 1245
11 Pt Roberts 917
12 Nooksack 807
13 Lummi Island 715
14 Acme 412
15 Glacier 197
16 Rockport 30
[1] "Residence Zip:"
ResidenceZipCode n
1 98225 28067
2 98226 26612
3 98229 20303
4 98248 14394
5 98264 13108
6 98230 10419
7 98247 4993
8 98244 1980
9 98240 1913
10 98266 1769
11 98295 1429
12 98284 1245
13 98281 917
14 98276 807
15 98262 715
16 98220 412
17 98283 30
[1] "Gender:"
Gender n
1 F 67305
2 M 61801
3 7
[1] "Top 25 Precincts by Percentage Female:"
PrecinctID Females Count PCT_female
1 202 369 590 0.62542372881355934
2 265 331 561 0.59001782531194291
3 201 762 1304 0.58435582822085885
4 218 424 726 0.58402203856749313
5 610 501 867 0.57785467128027679
6 203 516 894 0.57718120805369133
7 248 340 596 0.57046979865771807
8 608 418 736 0.56793478260869568
9 504 257 453 0.56732891832229582
10 252 280 495 0.56565656565656564
11 505 608 1076 0.56505576208178443
12 251 378 669 0.56502242152466364
13 245 731 1302 0.56144393241167434
14 211 522 930 0.56129032258064515
15 601 591 1054 0.56072106261859578
16 214 347 621 0.55877616747181968
17 208 662 1192 0.55536912751677847
18 611 331 596 0.55536912751677847
19 256 403 727 0.55433287482806048
20 262 399 722 0.55263157894736847
21 263 453 824 0.54975728155339809
22 220 477 870 0.54827586206896550
23 213 537 982 0.54684317718940934
24 607 370 679 0.54491899852724590
25 172 286 528 0.54166666666666663
...
Age data: Top 25 Precincts by youngest Mean Birth years. Twenty one of the twenty-five are in Bellingham (200)series precincts:
PID Registered Mean Median StDEV MAD Min Max Variance CoVarPCT SE
1 245 1302 1995 1996 1 1 1983 1997 1 0.0631 0.0349
2 252 495 1994 1996 6 1 1930 1997 48 0.350 0.314
3 253 1155 1984 1992 16 4 1915 1998 260 0.813 0.475
4 257 659 1982 1992 18 4 1928 1997 328 0.914 0.706
5 247 831 1981 1989 15 7 1919 1997 241 0.784 0.539
6 226 626 1980 1990 18 7 1919 1997 334 0.923 0.731
7 228 786 1977 1982 16 16 1921 1997 268 0.828 0.584
8 231 1065 1975 1978 16 17 1925 1998 264 0.823 0.498
9 230 796 1974 1979 15 17 1928 1997 253 0.807 0.565
10 225 1065 1973 1980 18 16 1916 1997 339 0.934 0.565
11 229 1039 1973 1977 16 17 1924 1997 275 0.842 0.515
12 246 736 1973 1980 19 20 1924 1997 390 1.001 0.728
13 255 561 1973 1975 17 22 1926 1997 298 0.875 0.729
14 223 537 1972 1976 15 17 1927 1996 250 0.802 0.683
15 263 824 1972 1976 19 25 1925 1997 368 0.973 0.669
16 224 346 1971 1976 18 20 1916 1997 325 0.916 0.970
17 258 887 1971 1974 18 25 1921 1997 337 0.931 0.616
18 204 595 1970 1975 19 22 1924 1997 371 0.978 0.790
19 206 1038 1970 1972 16 20 1921 1997 281 0.851 0.521
20 220 870 1970 1974 18 22 1923 1997 331 0.924 0.618
21 227 846 1970 1971 16 20 1923 1997 279 0.848 0.575
22 402 672 1970 1972 16 20 1922 1997 276 0.843 0.641
23 502 775 1970 1972 15 17 1920 1997 254 0.809 0.573
24 603 718 1970 1971 16 18 1916 1998 285 0.858 0.631
25 215 802 1969 1971 15 17 1919 1997 244 0.795 0.553
....
year(mdy(as.character(voterdb$BirthDa... n
1 1994 2542
2 1954 2473
3 1953 2467
4 1952 2453
5 1951 2424
6 1947 2403
7 1993 2374
8 1950 2351
9 1957 2346
10 1992 2327
11 1955 2307
12 1949 2289
13 1948 2277
14 1956 2270
15 1959 2263
16 1991 2232
17 1996 2218
18 1958 2215
19 1960 2206
20 1990 2194
21 1961 2185
22 1989 2171
23 1970 2167
24 1962 2147
25 1995 2136
26 1984 2125
27 1963 2124
28 1969 2099
29 1964 2090
30 1980 2079
31 1981 2077
32 1979 2070
33 1985 2058
34 1946 2047
35 1982 2035
36 1983 2023
37 1978 1996
38 1968 1990
39 1971 1987
40 1988 1972
41 1965 1967
42 1986 1962
43 1977 1953
44 1987 1916
45 1967 1870
46 1975 1841
47 1974 1816
48 1976 1795
49 1966 1777
50 1972 1773
51 1945 1687
52 1973 1681
53 1943 1598
54 1944 1590
55 1997 1466
56 1942 1457
57 1941 1254
58 1940 1149
59 1939 1045
60 1938 959
61 1937 885
62 1936 829
63 1935 771
64 1934 707
65 1933 612
66 1932 589
67 1930 576
68 1931 535
69 1929 482
70 1928 398
71 1927 359
72 1926 327
73 1925 271
74 1924 234
75 1923 195
76 1922 140
77 1921 129
78 1920 102
79 1919 56
80 1918 53
81 1916 27
82 1917 27
83 1998 22
84 1915 10
85 1914 5
86 1909 2
87 1913 2
88 1905 1
89 1911 1
90 1912 1
[1] "PrecinctID:"
PrecinctID n
1 201 1304
2 245 1302
3 182 1207
4 208 1192
5 253 1155
6 140 1140
7 302 1109
8 169 1084
9 505 1076
10 225 1065
11 231 1065
12 601 1054
13 108 1042
14 229 1039
15 206 1038
16 126 1034
17 146 1032
18 127 1013
19 134 1012
20 181 1002
21 137 985
22 213 982
23 508 978
24 133 973
25 107 962
26 301 958
27 239 954
28 222 948
29 118 944
30 131 941
31 250 941
32 150 940
33 211 930
34 609 930
35 148 929
36 178 927
37 166 925
38 101 917
39 141 916
40 145 916
41 151 916
42 168 915
43 175 905
44 160 895
45 203 894
46 249 891
47 506 888
48 258 887
49 604 878
50 171 873
51 220 870
52 610 867
53 135 865
54 602 864
55 144 860
56 503 859
57 240 849
58 210 847
59 227 846
60 115 843
61 125 841
62 153 841
63 233 831
64 247 831
65 147 829
66 263 824
67 234 816
68 136 815
69 111 814
70 606 809
71 129 808
72 142 803
73 215 802
74 701 802
75 106 800
76 232 798
77 230 796
78 228 786
79 303 785
80 501 781
81 221 779
82 216 778
83 219 778
84 152 777
85 244 776
86 502 775
87 174 769
88 209 769
89 120 744
90 243 744
91 266 740
92 246 736
93 608 736
94 256 727
95 218 726
96 262 722
97 507 720
98 110 718
99 264 718
100 603 718
101 138 716
102 163 713
103 801 708
104 103 706
105 162 700
106 607 679
107 509 678
108 402 672
109 113 669
110 251 669
111 132 667
112 241 659
113 257 659
114 102 631
115 173 629
116 226 626
117 180 623
118 214 621
119 254 618
120 176 614
121 238 608
122 260 603
123 248 596
124 611 596
125 204 595
126 205 595
127 202 590
128 149 589
129 177 578
130 117 571
131 261 569
132 401 564
133 161 563
134 121 562
135 255 561
136 265 561
137 143 559
138 217 549
139 155 548
140 237 548
141 122 540
142 170 538
143 223 537
144 123 535
145 130 530
146 154 529
147 172 528
148 207 528
149 242 512
150 116 504
151 252 495
152 212 489
153 259 482
154 235 479
155 124 474
156 605 469
157 114 466
158 504 453
159 119 449
160 157 438
161 104 430
162 165 425
163 105 416
164 158 410
165 112 393
166 139 361
167 156 359
168 236 358
169 224 346
170 304 312
171 159 270
172 164 253
173 179 192
174 167 135
175 267 94
176 268 55
177 183 32
[1] "Age Buckets:"
[1] "Ages 17 - 35:35850"
[1] "Ages 36 - 54:37222"
[1] "Ages 55 - 110:56040"
[1] "Ages 17 - 24 e.g. Student Vote:8384"
[1] "Ages 65 - 110 e.g. Retirement Vote:32856"
[1] "Top 25 Counts of Precincts for BirthDate <= 1981; e.g. Age 36 or older."
PrecinctID Count
1 201 948
2 182 899
3 601 871
4 126 855
5 302 848
6 169 847
7 208 841
8 107 820
9 101 814
10 140 813
11 181 803
12 134 800
13 250 799
14 127 786
15 213 780
16 108 768
17 146 768
18 505 763
19 168 762
20 131 750
21 222 746
22 301 739
23 145 732
24 303 731
25 148 709
[1] "Top 25 Counts of Precincts for BirthDate >= 1980; e.g. Age 35 or younger."
PrecinctID Count
1 245 1302
2 253 913
3 247 578
4 225 536
5 231 509
6 252 485
7 257 476
8 229 465
9 226 437
10 228 425
11 230 395
12 201 380
13 258 379
14 263 379
15 246 377
16 208 376
17 206 375
18 220 368
19 140 352
20 505 335
21 182 331
22 604 324
23 137 314
24 506 313
25 227 308
[1] "Top 25 Counts of Precincts for BirthDate >= 1993; e.g. Age 22 or younger."
PrecinctID Count
1 245 1280
2 253 496
3 252 476
4 257 327
5 247 248
6 226 213
7 263 192
8 246 178
9 258 171
10 228 156
11 231 128
12 248 110
13 140 100
14 229 98
15 230 93
16 225 89
17 208 87
18 255 80
19 227 76
20 118 74
21 244 73
22 169 71
23 508 71
24 144 70
25 160 69
2015 Ballot Counts by Age Groups:
[1] "No NA ('not registered then') listed with the aggregate functions below. 1 = ballot cast ; 0 = no ballot cast"
[1] "Participation of those currently registered in the last GE (2015) for BirthDate <= 1981; e.g. Age 36 or older."
BallotCounted2015 Count
1 1 52464
2 0 39668
[1] "Participation of those currently registered in last GE (2015) for BirthDate >= 1980; e.g. Age 35 or younger."
BallotCounted2015 Count
1 0 27144
2 1 9063
[1] "Participation of those currently registered in last GE (2015) for BirthDate >= 1993; e.g. Age 22 or younger."
BallotCounted2015 Count
1 0 7655
2 1 2286
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