Tonight's Whatcom County matchbacks counted 10,560 votes from this last Friday evening until Monday evening. The voter roll now stands at 129,857 registered voters. It has not been frozen. I asked the election staff tonight to update that figure, but they will not update it until after the election. 93,862 ballots remain out. Currently, there are 34,752 Good ballots (e.g 'ready for tabulation'), 245 Challenged Ballots, 504 Undeliverable, 904 ballots have been marked Void. You should receive notice if your ballot has been challenged. If you would like to check, go to myvote.wa.gov to see the status of your ballot. If you have not received a ballot and believed you were registered but did not change your address at myvote.wa.gov, you may still be able to contact the Elections office and work that out.
The day before the 2014 election one year ago, 49,884 ballots had been received of all status types. Tonight, we are 14,383 ballots short of that figure at 35,501. Please see this spreadsheet here for more information. Let us look and see where those missing ballots are coming from because something strange is at work here. The first table below is the top 25 Precincts ranked by 'Good' ballots. These top 25 precincts are currently reporting a cumulative 33% turnout as opposed to the 26.8% for all precincts:
scales::percent(7794/23438)
[1] "33.3%"
scales::percent(34752/129857)
[1] "26.8%"
These top 25 precincts contain a surprising number of WWU precincts (240, 249, 251, 250). This is unusual. Clearly the efforts of the student vote program this year at WWU are paying off. Advice: "Keep those students voting". It is clear from tonight's voting patterns that many other core urban Bellingham precincts *ARE SIMPLY NOT VOTING* with their usual strength. If those core urban returns do not change over the next two days, very little that is progressive or Democratic will survive on this ballot. Typically, in Whatcom County General Elections, it takes a minimum of 65K total good ballots for progressive/Democratic votes to survive a coordinated small city/ unincorporated county Republican GOTV effort. We are trending nowhere near that tonight. These trends portend a strong Republican victory tomorrow.
arrange(m1,desc(Good))
PrecinctID Total_Registered Good PCT
1 601 1058 428 40.5%
2 250 957 424 44.3%
3 201 1295 389 30.0%
4 610 880 365 41.5%
5 126 1020 343 33.6%
6 303 788 330 41.9%
7 169 1090 325 29.8%
8 208 1233 318 25.8%
9 222 959 314 32.7%
10 145 905 309 34.1%
11 249 895 301 33.6%
12 140 1144 300 26.2%
13 505 1051 287 27.3%
14 103 706 284 40.2%
15 602 858 284 33.1%
16 138 721 282 39.1%
17 144 862 282 32.7%
18 240 860 282 32.8%
19 210 874 281 32.2%
20 131 920 280 30.4%
21 148 969 280 28.9%
22 213 988 278 28.1%
23 264 721 278 38.6%
24 251 681 276 40.5%
25 127 1003 274 27.3%
Of the precinct groupings I have created below, clearly Bellingham precincts are most underperforming. 37,234 votes from Bellingham are not 'ready for tabulation':
Group Definition
UnIncCounty1 PrecinctID >= 101 & PrecinctID <= 150
UnIncCounty2 PrecinctID >= 151 & PrecinctID <= 199
Bham PrecinctID >= 200 & PrecinctID <= 299
SmallCities1 PrecinctID >= 300 & PrecinctID <= 599
SmallCities2 PrecinctID >= 600 & PrecinctID <= 900
Group x2014 x2015 NPre NVoters NV-x2015 PCT_Voted
UnIncCounty1 13997 10030 48 36300 26270 27.63%
UnIncCounty2 8056 5698 33 21108 15410 26.99%
Bham 19113 13571 68 50805 37234 26.71%
SmallCities1 4360 3017 15 11489 8472 26.26%
SmallCities2 4358 3185 13 10155 6970 31.36%
If we look at those core urban 200 series precincts with over 1000 voters, we see some shocking under performers here ranked by PCT:
arrange(subset(arrange(m2,desc(PCT)),PrecinctID > 199 & PrecinctID < 300 & Total_Registered > 1000))
PrecinctID Total_Registered Good PCT
1 201 1295 389 0.300
2 208 1233 318 0.258
3 206 1069 236 0.221
4 225 1093 227 0.208
5 229 1045 186 0.178
6 231 1066 177 0.166
7 253 1231 135 0.110
8 245 1393 74 0.053
25 of Bellingham's 200 series precincts have turned in less that 25% of their registered votes!:
arrange(subset(arrange(m2,desc(PCT)),PrecinctID > 199 & PrecinctID < 300 & PCT < .25))
PrecinctID Total_Registered Good PCT
1 212 472 115 0.244
2 224 341 82 0.240
3 218 743 173 0.233
4 233 817 189 0.231
5 211 913 210 0.230
6 219 801 184 0.230
7 206 1069 236 0.221
8 263 856 188 0.220
9 227 879 192 0.218
10 225 1093 227 0.208
11 246 787 163 0.207
12 255 575 116 0.202
13 220 883 177 0.200
14 257 665 128 0.192
15 204 598 110 0.184
16 229 1045 186 0.178
17 228 815 144 0.177
18 268 54 9 0.167
19 231 1066 177 0.166
20 226 655 106 0.162
21 247 879 111 0.126
22 230 805 99 0.123
23 253 1231 135 0.110
24 245 1393 74 0.053
25 252 531 21 0.040
Group Definition
Bham1 PrecinctID >= 200 & PrecinctID <= 209
Bham2 PrecinctID >= 210 & PrecinctID <= 219
Bham3 PrecinctID >= 220 & PrecinctID <= 229
Bham4 PrecinctID >= 230 & PrecinctID <= 239
Bham5 PrecinctID >= 240 & PrecinctID <= 249
Bham6 PrecinctID >= 250 & PrecinctID <= 259
Bham7 PrecinctID >= 260 & PrecinctID <= 299
Group x2014 x2015 NPre NVoters NV_x2015 PCT_Voted
Bham1 2957 2086 9 7589 5503 27.5%
Bham2 2997 2137 10 7569 5432 28.2%
Bham3 2505 1915 10 7990 6075 24.0%
Bham4 2585 1841 10 7251 5410 25.4%
Bham5 3023 1923 10 8082 6159 23.8%
Bham6 2901 1952 10 7375 5423 26.5%
Bham7 2145 1717 9 4949 3232 34.7%
If we compare subsets of Bellingham precincts to date with the 2014 final:
2015(through 11/02) Precinct Range for 200 series Bellingham greater than x less than y
PrecinctRange NPrecincts NumberNotVoted NPRE/NNV
1 b.199.300 68 37038 0.1836%
2 b.204.256 51 29432 0.1733%
3 b.209.254 44 25471 0.1727%
4 b.214.252 37 21134 0.1751%
5 b.219.250 30 17562 0.1708%
6 b.223.248 24 14291 0.1679%
7 b.227.246 18 10609 0.1697%
2014 (Final) Precinct Range for 200 series Bellingham greater than x less than y
PrecinctRange NPrecincts NumberNotVoted NPRE/NNV
1 b.199.300 68 19840 0.3427%
2 b.204.256 51 15771 0.3234%
3 b.209.254 44 13702 0.3211%
4 b.214.252 37 11455 0.3230%
5 b.219.250 30 9661 0.3105%
6 b.223.248 24 7959 0.3015%
7 b.227.246 18 5878 0.3062%
[1] "Total Registered (Active) Voters: 129857"
Source: local data frame [5 x 2]
AVReturnStatus n
1 93862
2 Challenged 245
3 Good 34752
4 Undeliverable 504
5 Void 494
Source: local data frame [10 x 2]
AVReturnChallenge n
1 129108
2 Electronic 3
3 ID Required 4
4 Letter doesn't match env. 5
5 No Signature 49
6 No Signature Match 134
7 Power of Attorney 3
8 Undeliverable 504
9 Wrong Voter's Signature 46
10 Z - Deceased 1
AVReturnedDate n
1 94356
2 09/23/2015 18
3 09/25/2015 4
4 09/29/2015 5
5 10/01/2015 7
6 10/02/2015 6
7 10/06/2015 14
8 10/08/2015 9
9 10/09/2015 20
10 10/12/2015 13
11 10/13/2015 9
12 10/14/2015 7
13 10/15/2015 6
14 10/16/2015 38
15 10/19/2015 986
16 10/20/2015 543
17 10/21/2015 1983
18 10/22/2015 4242
19 10/23/2015 1470
20 10/26/2015 4903
21 10/27/2015 1210
22 10/28/2015 4347
23 10/29/2015 1858
24 10/30/2015 3243
25 11/02/2015 10560
PrecinctID Total_Registered Good PCT
1 101 918 235 25.6%
2 102 625 178 28.5%
3 103 706 284 40.2%
4 104 438 157 35.8%
5 105 403 109 27.0%
6 106 788 161 20.4%
7 107 959 260 27.1%
8 108 1051 237 22.5%
9 110 717 160 22.3%
10 111 820 196 23.9%
11 112 396 106 26.8%
12 113 669 174 26.0%
13 114 466 93 20.0%
14 115 852 244 28.6%
15 116 498 140 28.1%
16 117 560 169 30.2%
17 118 927 219 23.6%
18 119 443 159 35.9%
19 120 731 185 25.3%
20 121 553 157 28.4%
21 122 542 157 29.0%
22 123 532 133 25.0%
23 124 477 161 33.8%
24 125 830 190 22.9%
25 126 1020 343 33.6%
26 127 1003 274 27.3%
27 129 797 227 28.5%
28 130 517 151 29.2%
29 131 920 280 30.4%
30 132 667 175 26.2%
31 133 1053 203 19.3%
32 134 1014 261 25.7%
33 135 871 192 22.0%
34 136 826 201 24.3%
35 137 1042 231 22.2%
36 138 721 282 39.1%
37 139 368 98 26.6%
38 140 1144 300 26.2%
39 141 933 274 29.4%
40 142 824 181 22.0%
41 143 570 126 22.1%
42 144 862 282 32.7%
43 145 905 309 34.1%
44 146 1019 268 26.3%
45 147 833 222 26.7%
46 148 969 280 28.9%
47 149 590 161 27.3%
48 150 931 255 27.4%
49 151 942 259 27.5%
50 152 783 218 27.8%
51 153 847 218 25.7%
52 154 545 152 27.9%
53 155 554 146 26.4%
54 156 367 109 29.7%
55 157 440 90 20.5%
56 158 404 113 28.0%
57 159 268 69 25.7%
58 160 899 204 22.7%
59 161 550 134 24.4%
60 162 702 162 23.1%
61 163 725 181 25.0%
62 164 257 91 35.4%
63 165 428 104 24.3%
64 166 927 240 25.9%
65 167 134 57 42.5%
66 168 906 270 29.8%
67 169 1090 325 29.8%
68 170 534 160 30.0%
69 171 862 248 28.8%
70 172 516 163 31.6%
71 173 619 182 29.4%
72 174 759 157 20.7%
73 175 905 189 20.9%
74 176 606 211 34.8%
75 177 575 167 29.0%
76 178 925 205 22.2%
77 179 193 70 36.3%
78 180 625 261 41.8%
79 181 1004 265 26.4%
80 182 1185 202 17.0%
81 183 32 3 9.4%
82 201 1295 389 30.0%
83 202 604 194 32.1%
84 203 899 258 28.7%
85 204 598 110 18.4%
86 205 576 145 25.2%
87 206 1069 236 22.1%
88 207 528 152 28.8%
89 208 1233 318 25.8%
90 209 787 238 30.2%
91 210 874 281 32.2%
92 211 913 210 23.0%
93 212 472 115 24.4%
94 213 988 278 28.1%
95 214 623 194 31.1%
96 215 796 243 30.5%
97 216 787 215 27.3%
98 217 572 188 32.9%
99 218 743 173 23.3%
100 219 801 184 23.0%
101 220 883 177 20.0%
102 221 768 245 31.9%
103 222 959 314 32.7%
104 223 552 142 25.7%
105 224 341 82 24.0%
106 225 1093 227 20.8%
107 226 655 106 16.2%
108 227 879 192 21.8%
109 228 815 144 17.7%
110 229 1045 186 17.8%
111 230 805 99 12.3%
112 231 1066 177 16.6%
113 232 807 267 33.1%
114 233 817 189 23.1%
115 234 815 254 31.2%
116 235 479 138 28.8%
117 236 357 107 30.0%
118 237 539 150 27.8%
119 238 605 169 27.9%
120 239 961 250 26.0%
121 240 860 282 32.8%
122 241 649 164 25.3%
123 242 518 145 28.0%
124 243 743 223 30.0%
125 244 771 266 34.5%
126 245 1393 74 5.3%
127 246 787 163 20.7%
128 247 879 111 12.6%
129 248 587 147 25.0%
130 249 895 301 33.6%
131 250 957 424 44.3%
132 251 681 276 40.5%
133 252 531 21 4.0%
134 253 1231 135 11.0%
135 254 623 187 30.0%
136 255 575 116 20.2%
137 256 752 239 31.8%
138 257 665 128 19.2%
139 258 879 247 28.1%
140 259 481 141 29.3%
141 260 605 241 39.8%
142 261 577 248 43.0%
143 262 727 210 28.9%
144 263 856 188 22.0%
145 264 721 278 38.6%
146 265 563 240 42.6%
147 266 747 255 34.1%
148 267 99 27 27.3%
149 268 54 9 16.7%
150 301 970 224 23.1%
151 302 1092 249 22.8%
152 303 788 330 41.9%
153 304 314 70 22.3%
154 401 566 111 19.6%
155 402 677 173 25.6%
156 501 763 234 30.7%
157 502 756 148 19.6%
158 503 844 243 28.8%
159 504 447 110 24.6%
160 505 1051 287 27.3%
161 506 864 185 21.4%
162 507 709 195 27.5%
163 508 981 232 23.6%
164 509 667 160 24.0%
165 601 1058 428 40.5%
166 602 858 284 33.1%
167 603 714 152 21.3%
168 604 857 217 25.3%
169 605 477 145 30.4%
170 606 827 241 29.1%
171 607 702 225 32.1%
172 608 751 240 32.0%
173 609 927 265 28.6%
174 610 880 365 41.5%
175 611 600 166 27.7%
176 701 793 193 24.3%
177 801 711 193 27.1%
[1] "Challenged:"
PrecinctID Freq
1 610 1
2 609 1
3 608 1
4 607 1
5 605 3
6 604 4
7 603 7
8 602 1
9 601 1
10 509 1
11 507 1
12 506 2
13 505 1
14 504 2
15 502 1
16 501 1
17 402 1
18 303 1
19 302 5
20 301 4
21 266 2
22 264 1
23 262 1
24 261 1
25 260 3
26 259 1
27 258 2
28 257 2
29 256 1
30 253 1
31 252 2
32 251 2
33 250 1
34 249 3
35 247 1
36 245 2
37 244 3
38 242 1
39 241 2
40 240 2
41 239 2
42 238 4
43 237 3
44 236 2
45 235 1
46 234 1
47 233 1
48 232 3
49 231 2
50 230 1
51 228 2
52 226 1
53 225 2
54 223 1
55 219 1
56 218 3
57 217 1
58 216 2
59 215 3
60 214 1
61 213 2
62 212 1
63 211 3
64 210 1
65 209 1
66 208 2
67 203 2
68 202 2
69 201 2
70 182 1
71 181 1
72 180 1
73 179 1
74 178 3
75 177 1
76 176 1
77 174 1
78 172 1
79 171 2
80 170 3
81 169 1
82 168 1
83 167 1
84 166 2
85 165 1
86 163 5
87 162 1
88 161 1
89 160 2
90 158 1
91 157 1
92 152 4
93 151 2
94 150 4
95 149 1
96 148 2
97 146 3
98 145 4
99 144 3
100 142 1
101 141 3
102 140 2
103 138 1
104 137 5
105 136 6
106 135 3
107 134 1
108 133 4
109 132 3
110 130 2
111 127 1
112 126 1
113 124 1
114 123 2
115 122 2
116 119 1
117 118 5
118 116 1
119 114 1
120 113 1
121 112 1
122 111 3
123 107 1
124 106 2
125 105 1
126 104 2
127 103 2
128 102 2
129 101 1
[1] "Undeliverable:"
PrecinctID Freq
1 801 7
2 701 1
3 611 2
4 610 4
5 609 7
6 608 7
7 607 1
8 606 4
9 605 3
10 604 6
11 603 3
12 602 2
13 601 4
14 508 4
15 507 2
16 506 5
17 505 9
18 504 2
19 503 5
20 502 2
21 501 1
22 402 4
23 401 8
24 303 1
25 302 1
26 301 2
27 266 2
28 263 4
29 262 3
30 261 2
31 260 2
32 259 2
33 258 1
34 256 3
35 255 2
36 253 14
37 251 2
38 250 2
39 249 4
40 248 2
41 247 8
42 246 8
43 245 2
44 244 4
45 243 3
46 242 1
47 241 1
48 239 2
49 237 1
50 234 2
51 233 5
52 232 2
53 231 7
54 230 2
55 229 6
56 228 34
57 227 13
58 226 6
59 225 8
60 224 4
61 223 10
62 222 1
63 220 12
64 219 7
65 218 3
66 217 5
67 216 4
68 215 4
69 214 2
70 213 3
71 212 2
72 211 3
73 210 5
74 209 1
75 208 7
76 207 1
77 206 14
78 204 2
79 203 4
80 202 3
81 201 5
82 182 2
83 181 2
84 179 1
85 177 1
86 176 1
87 175 2
88 173 2
89 172 1
90 166 4
91 163 1
92 160 2
93 158 2
94 156 1
95 155 2
96 154 3
97 153 1
98 152 4
99 151 2
100 150 3
101 149 3
102 148 7
103 147 5
104 146 1
105 145 2
106 143 8
107 142 14
108 141 7
109 140 7
110 138 1
111 137 5
112 135 4
113 134 5
114 133 12
115 131 1
116 130 2
117 129 3
118 127 1
119 126 3
120 122 3
121 121 1
122 120 2
123 118 1
124 115 2
125 114 1
126 113 1
127 111 1
128 104 1
129 103 1
130 101 3
[1] "Void:"
PrecinctID Freq
1 801 1
2 701 2
3 611 2
4 610 7
5 609 1
6 608 4
7 606 3
8 605 2
9 603 1
10 602 2
11 601 2
12 509 4
13 508 1
14 507 2
15 506 3
16 505 4
17 502 1
18 501 1
19 302 4
20 301 2
21 267 1
22 265 1
23 264 4
24 263 9
25 262 4
26 261 6
27 260 3
28 259 2
29 258 4
30 257 9
31 256 4
32 255 1
33 254 1
34 253 12
35 251 7
36 250 7
37 249 8
38 248 2
39 246 9
40 245 3
41 244 6
42 243 3
43 242 2
44 241 1
45 240 4
46 239 2
47 238 2
48 237 1
49 234 1
50 232 8
51 231 2
52 230 1
53 229 8
54 228 4
55 227 2
56 226 2
57 225 6
58 224 1
59 223 1
60 222 3
61 219 2
62 218 3
63 215 3
64 214 1
65 213 5
66 212 1
67 211 1
68 210 1
69 209 1
70 208 4
71 206 3
72 204 1
73 203 4
74 202 5
75 201 4
76 182 2
77 181 3
78 180 3
79 177 4
80 176 1
81 175 4
82 174 1
83 172 1
84 170 2
85 169 8
86 168 2
87 167 2
88 166 1
89 165 1
90 164 2
91 163 3
92 162 3
93 161 2
94 160 2
95 159 1
96 157 1
97 156 1
98 154 1
99 153 3
100 152 6
101 151 4
102 150 1
103 148 5
104 147 1
105 143 1
106 142 2
107 141 1
108 139 1
109 138 3
110 137 67
111 136 2
112 135 3
113 134 1
114 133 68
115 130 1
116 127 1
117 124 1
118 119 1
119 115 2
120 114 1
121 112 2
122 111 3
123 110 1
124 107 5
125 104
126 103 5
127 102 1
128 101 2
3 comments:
I do so appreciate your diligent attempts to alert and rally us! If either of us ever discover the secret to overcoming the insouciance which prevents our species from saving itself, we will win the Nobel Peace Prize. Given our age differential, it is in your good hands, Ryan
Bob Burr
I hate lose. I really hate to lose because I wasn't sharp to solve the puzzle. Elections are a huge puzzle.
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