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| AVReturn by Date (up to 11/04/2015). Click to enlarge. Also see this spreadsheet. |
Last night matchbacks in Whatcom County counted 12,056 votes. The voter roll now stands at 130,301 registered voters. 70,006 ballots are out somewhere, either in the mail currently or not voted. There are 58,111 Good ballots, 448 Challenged Ballots, 848 Undeliverables and 888 ballots have been marked Void. You should receive notice if your ballot has been challenged. If you would like to check, go to myvote.wa.gov to see the status of your ballot.
79,108 ballots were received of all status types in 2014. Today, we are 19,698 ballots short of that figure at 59,410. Please see these spreadsheets here and here for more information. I think it is conceivable we could reach 70K total ballots (all status) on Friday. The first table below my comments is the top 25 Precincts ranked by 'Good' ballots. These top 25 precincts are currently reporting a cumulative 52% turnout as opposed to the 45% for all precincts. The second table gives those the top 25 out of 60 precincts currently reporting over 49% turnout. R 3.2 code for my GE 2015 matchbacks is here.
People want to know: Will the next 10K swing right or left? How about the 10K after that? My answer is that I really don't know. Under 65K, some "small sample size" factor kicks in and I have seen elections in that range go left or right in the late ballots. Between 65K to 75K purple can become a little more bluish in Whatcom County. After 75K, the county essentially runs out of conservative votes. When President Obama's organization brought in 102K ballots in 2012, all of those young millennials, all of those disenfranchised souls, many who had never voted in the last five elections, turned out. Probably, the small cities (300 - 900 series) will start to run out of electoral steam soon. What Bellingham and the unincorporated County will do is up for grabs as is the number of ballots left in the hopper. It is 12:50 PM and the county is showing past 60K now. I haven't seen that change in an hour. Sidhu/Kershner is tight, the jail is tight. Both races could go either way.
However, I will say this: With those races so close, both parties should be reviewing all those 448 challenged ballots. You have work to do my friends. Go buy a matchback, query on AVReturnStatus == "Challenged" , see if your voters are in there, and start clearing up all those signature problems...
PrecinctID Total_Registered Good PCT
1 601 1058 643 61%
2 250 960 602 63%
3 222 963 558 58%
4 140 1147 556 48%
5 201 1298 556 43%
6 169 1095 546 50%
7 208 1241 533 43%
8 126 1024 520 51%
9 210 877 518 59%
10 610 881 517 59%
11 144 864 515 60%
12 127 1004 495 49%
13 134 1018 492 48%
14 145 907 490 54%
15 146 1019 487 48%
16 213 991 487 49%
17 141 933 478 51%
18 131 922 466 50%
19 181 1007 466 46%
20 503 846 461 55%
21 303 790 459 58%
22 151 945 454 48%
23 209 791 452 57%
24 602 858 447 52%
25 609 927 447 48%
1 167 134 86 0.64
2 261 577 367 0.64
3 180 625 396 0.63
4 250 960 602 0.63
5 251 685 419 0.61
6 601 1058 643 0.61
7 264 721 433 0.60
8 144 864 515 0.60
9 265 565 335 0.59
10 210 877 518 0.59
11 610 881 517 0.59
12 260 605 352 0.58
13 303 790 459 0.58
14 164 257 149 0.58
15 222 963 558 0.58
16 209 791 452 0.57
17 139 368 210 0.57
18 103 709 402 0.57
19 214 626 354 0.57
20 266 750 417 0.56
21 607 704 387 0.55
22 104 439 241 0.55
23 503 846 461 0.54
24 501 765 416 0.54
25 145 907 490 0.54
[1] "Total Registered (Active) Voters: 130301"
Source: local data frame [5 x 2]
AVReturnStatus n
1 70006
2 Challenged 448
3 Good 58111
4 Undeliverable 848
5 Void 888
Source: local data frame [14 x 2]
AVReturnChallenge n
1 129005
2 Electronic 2
3 ID Required 6
4 Letter doesn't match env. 8
5 No Ballot 3
6 No Signature 69
7 No Signature Match 271
8 Power of Attorney 3
9 Second Ballot Received 6
10 Too Late 7
11 Undeliverable 848
12 Wrong Voter's Signature 71
13 Z - Deceased 1
14 Z - Other 1
AVReturnedDate n
1 70894
2 09/23/2015 18
3 09/25/2015 4
4 09/29/2015 5
5 10/01/2015 7
6 10/02/2015 6
7 10/06/2015 14
8 10/08/2015 9
9 10/09/2015 20
10 10/12/2015 13
11 10/13/2015 9
12 10/14/2015 7
13 10/15/2015 6
14 10/16/2015 38
15 10/19/2015 986
16 10/20/2015 543
17 10/21/2015 1983
18 10/22/2015 4242
19 10/23/2015 1470
20 10/26/2015 4903
21 10/27/2015 1209
22 10/28/2015 4347
23 10/29/2015 1856
24 10/30/2015 3243
25 11/02/2015 10560
26 11/03/2015 11853
27 11/04/2015 12056
PrecinctID Total_Registered Good PCT
1 101 919 312 34%
2 102 627 293 47%
3 103 709 402 57%
4 104 439 241 55%
5 105 403 176 44%
6 106 788 257 33%
7 107 960 401 42%
8 108 1054 385 36%
9 110 718 317 44%
10 111 820 338 41%
11 112 396 180 46%
12 113 670 309 46%
13 114 467 191 41%
14 115 853 387 45%
15 116 498 254 51%
16 117 560 300 54%
17 118 928 423 46%
18 119 443 210 47%
19 120 736 351 48%
20 121 553 278 50%
21 122 544 239 44%
22 123 532 240 45%
23 124 479 239 50%
24 125 832 338 41%
25 126 1024 520 51%
26 127 1004 495 49%
27 129 799 405 51%
28 130 518 240 46%
29 131 922 466 50%
30 132 669 298 44%
31 133 1069 300 28%
32 134 1018 492 48%
33 135 878 305 35%
34 136 826 296 36%
35 137 1063 342 32%
36 138 722 387 54%
37 139 368 210 57%
38 140 1147 556 48%
39 141 933 478 51%
40 142 827 294 36%
41 143 571 216 38%
42 144 864 515 60%
43 145 907 490 54%
44 146 1019 487 48%
45 147 833 396 48%
46 148 969 398 41%
47 149 590 298 50%
48 150 931 426 46%
49 151 945 454 48%
50 152 785 352 45%
51 153 848 371 44%
52 154 546 269 49%
53 155 555 262 47%
54 156 368 180 49%
55 157 442 158 36%
56 158 405 191 47%
57 159 268 115 43%
58 160 900 375 42%
59 161 552 239 43%
60 162 707 284 40%
61 163 728 323 44%
62 164 257 149 58%
63 165 429 193 45%
64 166 927 398 43%
65 167 134 86 64%
66 168 908 444 49%
67 169 1095 546 50%
68 170 534 244 46%
69 171 866 423 49%
70 172 517 257 50%
71 173 622 310 50%
72 174 760 289 38%
73 175 910 340 37%
74 176 607 322 53%
75 177 575 261 45%
76 178 926 362 39%
77 179 193 103 53%
78 180 625 396 63%
79 181 1007 466 46%
80 182 1186 347 29%
81 183 32 4 12%
82 201 1298 556 43%
83 202 606 269 44%
84 203 901 379 42%
85 204 598 173 29%
86 205 577 253 44%
87 206 1073 387 36%
88 207 529 272 51%
89 208 1241 533 43%
90 209 791 452 57%
91 210 877 518 59%
92 211 914 315 34%
93 212 472 162 34%
94 213 991 487 49%
95 214 626 354 57%
96 215 800 420 52%
97 216 792 391 49%
98 217 573 276 48%
99 218 744 236 32%
100 219 805 308 38%
101 220 884 292 33%
102 221 768 368 48%
103 222 963 558 58%
104 223 554 263 48%
105 224 342 147 43%
106 225 1103 403 36%
107 226 665 197 30%
108 227 887 366 41%
109 228 831 306 37%
110 229 1047 319 30%
111 230 808 206 26%
112 231 1072 319 30%
113 232 808 399 49%
114 233 817 330 40%
115 234 816 421 52%
116 235 479 238 50%
117 236 357 169 47%
118 237 539 247 46%
119 238 608 288 47%
120 239 962 420 44%
121 240 860 421 49%
122 241 652 278 43%
123 242 522 258 49%
124 243 745 379 51%
125 244 777 411 53%
126 245 1399 184 13%
127 246 800 313 39%
128 247 895 222 25%
129 248 591 210 36%
130 249 896 423 47%
131 250 960 602 63%
132 251 685 419 61%
133 252 540 68 13%
134 253 1249 259 21%
135 254 628 320 51%
136 255 578 220 38%
137 256 755 394 52%
138 257 679 235 35%
139 258 889 422 48%
140 259 481 237 49%
141 260 605 352 58%
142 261 577 367 64%
143 262 728 322 44%
144 263 867 357 41%
145 264 721 433 60%
146 265 565 335 59%
147 266 750 417 56%
148 267 99 41 41%
149 268 54 18 33%
150 301 971 371 38%
151 302 1096 445 41%
152 303 790 459 58%
153 304 315 122 39%
154 401 568 221 39%
155 402 677 306 45%
156 501 765 416 54%
157 502 756 333 44%
158 503 846 461 55%
159 504 448 208 46%
160 505 1053 443 42%
161 506 865 386 45%
162 507 709 338 48%
163 508 985 392 40%
164 509 669 278 42%
165 601 1058 643 61%
166 602 858 447 52%
167 603 714 330 46%
168 604 857 397 46%
169 605 479 245 51%
170 606 827 414 50%
171 607 704 387 55%
172 608 751 382 51%
173 609 927 447 48%
174 610 881 517 59%
175 611 604 297 49%
176 701 793 337 42%
177 801 712 291 41%
[1] "Challenged:"
PrecinctID Freq
1 801 1
2 701 1
3 611 4
4 610 3
5 609 1
6 608 2
7 607 1
8 606 3
9 605 3
10 604 3
11 603 8
12 602 1
13 601 2
14 509 2
15 508 2
16 507 1
17 506 5
18 505 3
19 504 5
20 503 1
21 502 2
22 501 2
23 402 3
24 401 1
25 303 2
26 302 7
27 301 4
28 266 1
29 264 1
30 263 2
31 262 1
32 261 1
33 260 6
34 259 1
35 258 4
36 257 1
37 256 3
38 254 3
39 253 2
40 252 3
41 251 2
42 250 3
43 249 4
44 248 1
45 247 5
46 246 3
47 245 3
48 244 2
49 243 2
50 242 3
51 241 3
52 240 2
53 239 4
54 238 4
55 237 6
56 236 3
57 235 3
58 234 2
59 233 1
60 232 3
61 231 2
62 230 3
63 229 1
64 228 5
65 227 3
66 226 1
67 225 8
68 224 2
69 223 2
70 222 1
71 221 1
72 220 1
73 219 4
74 218 4
75 217 2
76 216 4
77 215 6
78 214 2
79 213 6
80 212 1
81 211 5
82 210 2
83 209 2
84 208 5
85 207 2
86 206 1
87 204 1
88 203 2
89 202 2
90 201 3
91 182 3
92 181 3
93 180 1
94 179 1
95 178 7
96 177 2
97 176 1
98 175 2
99 174 3
100 172 2
101 171 6
102 170 3
103 169 4
104 168 2
105 167 1
106 166 3
107 165 2
108 163 6
109 162 2
110 161 1
111 160 5
112 159 1
113 158 3
114 157 3
115 154 2
116 153 3
117 152 3
118 151 3
119 150 4
120 149 1
121 148 5
122 147 2
123 146 5
124 145 5
125 144 4
126 143 1
127 142 1
128 141 4
129 140 4
130 139 1
131 138 2
132 137 7
133 136 6
134 135 5
135 134 2
136 133 7
137 132 4
138 131 1
139 130 2
140 129 1
141 127 4
142 126 3
143 125 3
144 124 1
145 123 2
146 122 4
147 120 2
148 118 5
149 117 1
150 116 4
151 115 1
152 114 1
153 113 1
154 112 1
155 111 3
156 110 1
157 108 2
158 107 2
159 106 2
160 105 1
161 104 2
162 103 2
163 102 2
164 101 1
[1] "Undeliverable:"
PrecinctID Freq
1 801 8
2 701 2
3 611 5
4 610 4
5 609 9
6 608 8
7 607 8
8 606 7
9 605 3
10 604 6
11 603 3
12 602 2
13 601 6
14 509 1
15 508 4
16 507 2
17 506 5
18 505 11
19 504 3
20 503 6
21 502 2
22 501 1
23 402 5
24 401 8
25 304 2
26 303 1
27 302 3
28 301 6
29 266 2
30 265 1
31 263 11
32 262 19
33 261 3
34 260 2
35 259 3
36 258 6
37 257 18
38 256 4
39 255 4
40 254 4
41 253 31
42 252 5
43 251 3
44 250 3
45 249 4
46 248 2
47 247 25
48 246 32
49 245 18
50 244 4
51 243 4
52 242 1
53 241 1
54 240 1
55 239 4
56 237 1
57 234 3
58 233 8
59 232 2
60 231 13
61 230 8
62 229 8
63 228 36
64 227 16
65 226 14
66 225 8
67 224 7
68 223 10
69 222 1
70 220 15
71 219 8
72 218 5
73 217 5
74 216 6
75 215 6
76 214 3
77 213 4
78 212 4
79 211 6
80 210 5
81 209 2
82 208 13
83 207 1
84 206 16
85 204 2
86 203 7
87 202 4
88 201 6
89 182 3
90 181 4
91 179 1
92 178 1
93 177 1
94 176 2
95 175 4
96 174 1
97 173 3
98 172 1
99 170 1
100 169 3
101 168 1
102 166 5
103 164 1
104 163 3
105 162 2
106 161 1
107 160 4
108 159 2
109 158 2
110 157 1
111 156 1
112 155 3
113 154 7
114 153 2
115 152 6
116 151 5
117 150 4
118 149 3
119 148 7
120 147 6
121 146 2
122 145 4
123 143 9
124 142 22
125 141 10
126 140 8
127 139 1
128 138 1
129 137 6
130 135 9
131 134 6
132 133 16
133 131 3
134 130 4
135 129 3
136 127 1
137 126 4
138 122 3
139 121 1
140 120 2
141 118 1
142 115 4
143 114 2
144 113 7
145 112 2
146 111 1
147 110 1
148 108 5
149 107 8
150 106 2
151 104 2
152 103 3
153 102 1
154 101 4
[1] "Void:"
PrecinctID Freq
1 801 1
2 701 2
3 611 4
4 610 8
5 609 1
6 608 4
7 607 1
8 606 3
9 605 4
10 603 1
11 602 2
12 601 2
13 509 6
14 508 5
15 507 2
16 506 4
17 505 6
18 504 1
19 503 2
20 502 1
21 501 3
22 401 2
23 304 1
24 303 2
25 302 8
26 301 3
27 267 1
28 266 3
29 265 3
30 264 4
31 263 20
32 262 4
33 261 6
34 260 3
35 259 2
36 258 14
37 257 23
38 256 6
39 255 4
40 254 5
41 253 29
42 252 9
43 251 11
44 250 10
45 249 9
46 248 6
47 247 14
48 246 20
49 245 9
50 244 11
51 243 5
52 242 5
53 241 3
54 240 4
55 239 2
56 238 5
57 237 1
58 234 1
59 232 9
60 231 7
61 230 4
62 229 10
63 228 16
64 227 10
65 226 11
66 225 15
67 224 1
68 223 3
69 222 6
70 219 6
71 218 4
72 217 1
73 216 4
74 215 6
75 214 3
76 213 8
77 212 1
78 211 2
79 210 4
80 209 5
81 208 11
82 207 1
83 206 6
84 205 1
85 204 1
86 203 5
87 202 6
88 201 7
89 182 3
90 181 6
91 180 3
92 178 1
93 177 4
94 176 2
95 175 9
96 174 2
97 173 3
98 172 2
99 171 1
100 170 2
101 169 13
102 168 4
103 167 2
104 166 1
105 165 2
106 164 2
107 163 6
108 162 6
109 161 4
110 160 3
111 159 1
112 158 1
113 157 3
114 156 2
115 155 1
116 154 2
117 153 3
118 152 6
119 151 7
120 150 1
121 148 5
122 147 1
123 145 1
124 144 2
125 143 2
126 142 5
127 141 1
128 140 2
129 139 1
130 138 4
131 137 87
132 136 2
133 135 8
134 134 5
135 133 83
136 132 1
137 131 2
138 130 2
139 129 2
140 127 2
141 126 4
142 125 2
143 124 3
144 122 2
145 120 5
146 119 1
147 118 1
148 115 3
149 114 2
150 113 1
151 112 2
152 111 3
153 110 2
154 108 2
155 107 6
156 104 4
157 103 8
158 102 3
159 101 3
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