Ralph Schwartz is reporting from the Auditor that our ballots will roll in heavy through Thursday because of "the move of our mail processing facility from Everett to Redmond." Heaven help us. Our ballots have to ship four counties away and come back? What kind of secure "chain of custody" is that?!!
Last night (Election night) matchbacks in Whatcom County counted 11,853 votes. The voter roll now stands at 130,073 registered voters. 82,034 ballots are out somewhere, either in the mail currently or not voted. There are 46,518 Good ballots, 332 Challenged Ballots, 504 Undeliverables, 685 ballots have been marked Void. You should receive notice if your ballot has been challenged. If you would like to check, go to myvote.wa.gov to see the status of your ballot.
On election day one year ago, 68,786 ballots had been received of all status types. Tonight, we are 21,432 ballots short of that figure at 47,354. Please see this spreadsheet here for more information. I think it is conceivable we could hit 62K total ballots (all status). But even if we did, that figure would still be 10,250 short of the smallest total ballots for the four GE years 2012 - 2015. The first table below is the top 25 Precincts ranked by 'Good' ballots. These top 25 precincts are currently reporting a cumulative 43% turnout as opposed to the 36% for all precincts. The second table gives those precincts currently reporting over 49%. R 3.2 code for my GE 2015 matchbacks is here.
scales::percent(10444/24111)
[1] "43%"
scales::percent(46518/130073)
[1] "36%"
[Top 25 Good by Volume]
PrecinctID Total_Registered Good PCT
1 601 1058 558 52.7%
2 250 960 535 55.7%
3 201 1297 466 35.9%
4 222 961 461 48.0%
5 610 881 460 52.2%
6 169 1091 451 41.3%
7 208 1237 439 35.5%
8 210 874 436 49.9%
9 126 1021 432 42.3%
10 144 863 423 49.0%
11 127 1003 403 40.2%
12 145 905 399 44.1%
13 140 1146 398 34.7%
14 213 991 395 39.9%
15 209 791 394 49.8%
16 131 922 388 42.1%
17 134 1018 388 38.1%
18 181 1005 387 38.5%
19 602 858 384 44.8%
20 303 788 377 47.8%
21 503 845 376 44.5%
22 505 1052 376 35.7%
23 609 927 376 40.6%
24 249 896 372 41.5%
25 264 721 370 51.3%
Congratulations are in order to those 12 precincts currently above or at 50% Turnout:
arrange(subset(m2, PCT >= .49),desc(PCT))
PrecinctID Total_Registered Good PCT
1 250 960 535 0.56
2 180 625 342 0.55
3 261 577 310 0.54
4 601 1058 558 0.53
5 610 881 460 0.52
6 265 564 293 0.52
7 264 721 370 0.51
8 251 684 343 0.50
9 210 874 436 0.50
10 209 791 394 0.50
11 260 605 300 0.50
12 144 863 423 0.49
[Group Definitions]
Group Definition
UnIncCounty1 PrecinctID >= 101 & PrecinctID <= 150
UnIncCounty2 PrecinctID >= 151 & PrecinctID <= 199
Bham PrecinctID >= 200 & PrecinctID <= 299
SmallCities1 PrecinctID >= 300 & PrecinctID <= 599
SmallCities2 PrecinctID >= 600 & PrecinctID <= 900
Group Definition
Bham1 PrecinctID >= 200 & PrecinctID <= 209
Bham2 PrecinctID >= 210 & PrecinctID <= 219
Bham3 PrecinctID >= 220 & PrecinctID <= 229
Bham4 PrecinctID >= 230 & PrecinctID <= 239
Bham5 PrecinctID >= 240 & PrecinctID <= 249
Bham6 PrecinctID >= 250 & PrecinctID <= 259
Bham7 PrecinctID >= 260 & PrecinctID <= 299
Group x2014 x2015 NPre NVoters NV_x2015 PCT_Voted
UnIncCounty1 19005 12884 48 36347 23463 35%
UnIncCounty2 11358 7495 33 21132 13637 35%
Bham 26533 18619 68 50940 32321 37%
SmallCities1 5913 4063 15 11497 7434 35%
SmallCities2 5977 4293 13 10157 5864 42%
Group x2014 x2015 NPre NVoters NV_x2015 PCT_Voted
Bham1 4004 2780 9 7604 4824 37%
Bham2 4227 2950 10 7581 4631 39%
Bham3 3830 2776 10 8017 5241 35%
Bham4 3629 2546 10 7261 4715 35%
Bham5 4094 2647 10 8108 5461 33%
Bham6 3889 2671 10 7409 4738 36%
Bham7 2860 2249 9 4960 2711 45%
PrecinctRange NPrecincts NumberNotVoted NPRE/NNV
1 b.199.300 68 32007 0.21%
2 b.204.256 51 25424 0.20%
3 b.209.254 44 22108 0.20%
4 b.214.252 37 18325 0.20%
5 b.219.250 30 15284 0.20%
6 b.223.248 24 12478 0.19%
7 b.227.246 18 9276 0.19%
[1] "Total Registered (Active) Voters: 130073"
Source: local data frame [5 x 2]
AVReturnStatus n
1 82034
2 Challenged 332
3 Good 46518
4 Undeliverable 504
5 Void 685
Source: local data frame [12 x 2]
AVReturnChallenge n
1 129237
2 Electronic 2
3 ID Required 4
4 Letter doesn't match env. 7
5 No Ballot 2
6 No Signature 51
7 No Signature Match 202
8 Power of Attorney 3
9 Second Ballot Received 1
10 Undeliverable 504
11 Wrong Voter's Signature 59
12 Z - Deceased 1
AVReturnedDate n
1 82719
2 09/23/2015 18
3 09/25/2015 4
4 09/29/2015 5
5 10/01/2015 7
6 10/02/2015 6
7 10/06/2015 14
8 10/08/2015 9
9 10/09/2015 20
10 10/12/2015 13
11 10/13/2015 9
12 10/14/2015 7
13 10/15/2015 6
14 10/16/2015 38
15 10/19/2015 986
16 10/20/2015 543
17 10/21/2015 1983
18 10/22/2015 4242
19 10/23/2015 1470
20 10/26/2015 4903
21 10/27/2015 1210
22 10/28/2015 4347
23 10/29/2015 1858
24 10/30/2015 3243
25 11/02/2015 10560
26 11/03/2015 11853
PrecinctID Total_Registered Good PCT
1 101 918 247 26.9%
2 102 625 218 34.9%
3 103 708 331 46.8%
4 104 438 186 42.5%
5 105 403 135 33.5%
6 106 788 202 25.6%
7 107 959 305 31.8%
8 108 1052 290 27.6%
9 110 717 205 28.6%
10 111 820 259 31.6%
11 112 396 137 34.6%
12 113 670 228 34.0%
13 114 467 136 29.1%
14 115 853 313 36.7%
15 116 498 203 40.8%
16 117 560 246 43.9%
17 118 928 339 36.5%
18 119 443 178 40.2%
19 120 735 260 35.4%
20 121 553 225 40.7%
21 122 542 198 36.5%
22 123 532 188 35.3%
23 124 477 209 43.8%
24 125 832 264 31.7%
25 126 1021 432 42.3%
26 127 1003 403 40.2%
27 129 797 331 41.5%
28 130 517 203 39.3%
29 131 922 388 42.1%
30 132 668 225 33.7%
31 133 1059 260 24.6%
32 134 1018 388 38.1%
33 135 876 241 27.5%
34 136 826 254 30.8%
35 137 1054 288 27.3%
36 138 721 315 43.7%
37 139 368 170 46.2%
38 140 1146 398 34.7%
39 141 933 308 33.0%
40 142 824 192 23.3%
41 143 570 134 23.5%
42 144 863 423 49.0%
43 145 905 399 44.1%
44 146 1019 342 33.6%
45 147 833 236 28.3%
46 148 969 288 29.7%
47 149 590 226 38.3%
48 150 931 333 35.8%
49 151 942 363 38.5%
50 152 784 257 32.8%
51 153 848 230 27.1%
52 154 546 163 29.9%
53 155 555 196 35.3%
54 156 367 144 39.2%
55 157 441 135 30.6%
56 158 404 141 34.9%
57 159 268 99 36.9%
58 160 900 290 32.2%
59 161 551 185 33.6%
60 162 707 230 32.5%
61 163 727 244 33.6%
62 164 257 121 47.1%
63 165 428 127 29.7%
64 166 927 249 26.9%
65 167 134 62 46.3%
66 168 907 349 38.5%
67 169 1091 451 41.3%
68 170 534 209 39.1%
69 171 865 348 40.2%
70 172 516 221 42.8%
71 173 621 262 42.2%
72 174 759 225 29.6%
73 175 906 265 29.2%
74 176 606 265 43.7%
75 177 575 220 38.3%
76 178 926 287 31.0%
77 179 193 72 37.3%
78 180 625 342 54.7%
79 181 1005 387 38.5%
80 182 1185 264 22.3%
81 183 32 3 9.4%
82 201 1297 466 35.9%
83 202 605 221 36.5%
84 203 901 311 34.5%
85 204 598 141 23.6%
86 205 576 222 38.5%
87 206 1071 319 29.8%
88 207 528 219 41.5%
89 208 1237 439 35.5%
90 209 791 394 49.8%
91 210 874 436 49.9%
92 211 914 262 28.7%
93 212 472 137 29.0%
94 213 991 395 39.9%
95 214 623 298 47.8%
96 215 798 351 44.0%
97 216 788 323 41.0%
98 217 573 229 40.0%
99 218 743 196 26.4%
100 219 805 253 31.4%
101 220 884 233 26.4%
102 221 768 321 41.8%
103 222 961 461 48.0%
104 223 553 225 40.7%
105 224 342 116 33.9%
106 225 1098 345 31.4%
107 226 660 155 23.5%
108 227 882 304 34.5%
109 228 823 246 29.9%
110 229 1046 259 24.8%
111 230 807 159 19.7%
112 231 1070 257 24.0%
113 232 808 349 43.2%
114 233 817 271 33.2%
115 234 816 355 43.5%
116 235 479 194 40.5%
117 236 357 138 38.7%
118 237 539 207 38.4%
119 238 606 227 37.5%
120 239 962 340 35.3%
121 240 860 368 42.8%
122 241 651 226 34.7%
123 242 520 202 38.8%
124 243 745 308 41.3%
125 244 774 366 47.3%
126 245 1395 144 10.3%
127 246 793 256 32.3%
128 247 885 175 19.8%
129 248 589 179 30.4%
130 249 896 372 41.5%
131 250 960 535 55.7%
132 251 684 343 50.1%
133 252 534 51 9.6%
134 253 1241 200 16.1%
135 254 625 265 42.4%
136 255 576 176 30.6%
137 256 755 311 41.2%
138 257 671 196 29.2%
139 258 882 347 39.3%
140 259 481 206 42.8%
141 260 605 300 49.6%
142 261 577 310 53.7%
143 262 727 273 37.6%
144 263 865 286 33.1%
145 264 721 370 51.3%
146 265 564 293 52.0%
147 266 748 342 45.7%
148 267 99 37 37.4%
149 268 54 17 31.5%
150 301 971 268 27.6%
151 302 1093 326 29.8%
152 303 788 377 47.8%
153 304 314 89 28.3%
154 401 567 112 19.8%
155 402 677 178 26.3%
156 501 764 336 44.0%
157 502 756 255 33.7%
158 503 845 376 44.5%
159 504 448 163 36.4%
160 505 1052 376 35.7%
161 506 864 289 33.4%
162 507 709 282 39.8%
163 508 982 329 33.5%
164 509 667 231 34.6%
165 601 1058 558 52.7%
166 602 858 384 44.8%
167 603 714 264 37.0%
168 604 857 318 37.1%
169 605 477 205 43.0%
170 606 827 364 44.0%
171 607 702 319 45.4%
172 608 751 333 44.3%
173 609 927 376 40.6%
174 610 881 460 52.2%
175 611 601 232 38.6%
176 701 793 197 24.8%
177 801 711 208 29.3%
[1] "Challenged:"
PrecinctID Freq
1 801 1
2 611 3
3 609 1
4 608 1
5 607 1
6 606 2
7 605 3
8 604 2
9 603 7
10 602 1
11 601 2
12 509 2
13 508 1
14 507 1
15 506 2
16 505 2
17 504 4
18 503 1
19 502 2
20 501 2
21 402 2
22 303 1
23 302 6
24 301 4
25 266 1
26 264 1
27 262 1
28 261 1
29 260 4
30 259 1
31 258 2
32 257 1
33 256 2
34 254 2
35 253 2
36 252 2
37 251 2
38 250 1
39 249 3
40 247 2
41 246 3
42 245 2
43 244 2
44 242 2
45 241 2
46 240 2
47 239 4
48 238 4
49 237 4
50 236 3
51 235 2
52 234 2
53 233 1
54 232 3
55 231 2
56 230 3
57 228 3
58 227 2
59 226 1
60 225 7
61 224 1
62 223 1
63 222 1
64 221 1
65 219 2
66 218 4
67 217 1
68 216 3
69 215 6
70 214 2
71 213 6
72 212 1
73 211 5
74 210 2
75 209 2
76 208 3
77 203 2
78 202 2
79 201 2
80 182 2
81 181 1
82 180 1
83 179 1
84 178 5
85 177 1
86 176 1
87 175 1
88 174 2
89 172 2
90 171 2
91 170 3
92 169 1
93 168 1
94 167 1
95 166 2
96 165 1
97 163 6
98 162 2
99 161 1
100 160 4
101 159 1
102 158 2
103 157 2
104 153 2
105 152 4
106 151 3
107 150 5
108 149 1
109 148 2
110 146 3
111 145 4
112 144 4
113 142 1
114 141 2
115 140 3
116 139 1
117 138 1
118 137 6
119 136 4
120 135 5
121 134 2
122 133 4
123 132 3
124 131 1
125 130 2
126 129 1
127 127 3
128 126 2
129 124 1
130 123 2
131 122 4
132 120 1
133 118 5
134 116 2
135 115 1
136 114 1
137 113 1
138 112 1
139 111 3
140 107 2
141 106 2
142 105 1
143 104 2
144 103 2
145 102 2
146 101 1
[1] "Undeliverable:"
PrecinctID Freq
1 801 7
2 701 1
3 611 2
4 610 4
5 609 7
6 608 7
7 607 1
8 606 4
9 605 3
10 604 6
11 603 3
12 602 2
13 601 4
14 508 4
15 507 2
16 506 5
17 505 9
18 504 2
19 503 5
20 502 2
21 501 1
22 402 4
23 401 8
24 303 1
25 302 1
26 301 2
27 266 2
28 263 4
29 262 3
30 261 2
31 260 2
32 259 2
33 258 1
34 256 3
35 255 2
36 253 14
37 251 2
38 250 2
39 249 4
40 248 2
41 247 8
42 246 8
43 245 2
44 244 4
45 243 3
46 242 1
47 241 1
48 239 2
49 237 1
50 234 2
51 233 5
52 232 2
53 231 7
54 230 2
55 229 6
56 228 34
57 227 13
58 226 6
59 225 8
60 224 4
61 223 10
62 222 1
63 220 12
64 219 7
65 218 3
66 217 5
67 216 4
68 215 4
69 214 2
70 213 3
71 212 2
72 211 3
73 210 5
74 209 1
75 208 7
76 207 1
77 206 14
78 204 2
79 203 4
80 202 3
81 201 5
82 182 2
83 181 2
84 179 1
85 177 1
86 176 1
87 175 2
88 173 2
89 172 1
90 166 4
91 163 1
92 160 2
93 158 2
94 156 1
95 155 2
96 154 3
97 153 1
98 152 4
99 151 2
100 150 3
101 149 3
102 148 7
103 147 5
104 146 1
105 145 2
106 143 8
107 142 14
108 141 7
109 140 7
110 138 1
111 137 5
112 135 4
113 134 5
114 133 12
115 131 1
116 130 2
117 129 3
118 127 1
119 126 3
120 122 3
121 121 1
122 120 2
123 118 1
124 115 2
125 114 1
126 113 1
127 111 1
128 104 1
129 103 1
130 101 3
[1] "Void:"
PrecinctID Freq
1 801 1
2 701 2
3 611 3
4 610 8
5 609 1
6 608 4
7 606 3
8 605 2
9 603 1
10 602 2
11 601 2
12 509 4
13 508 2
14 507 2
15 506 3
16 505 5
17 504 1
18 503 1
19 502 1
20 501 2
21 401 1
22 302 5
23 301 3
24 267 1
25 266 1
26 265 2
27 264 4
28 263 18
29 262 4
30 261 6
31 260 3
32 259 2
33 258 7
34 257 15
35 256 7
36 255 2
37 254 2
38 253 22
39 252 3
40 251 10
41 250 10
42 249 9
43 248 4
44 247 4
45 246 15
46 245 5
47 244 8
48 243 5
49 242 3
50 241 2
51 240 4
52 239 2
53 238 3
54 237 1
55 234 1
56 232 9
57 231 5
58 230 3
59 229 9
60 228 10
61 227 5
62 226 7
63 225 11
64 224 2
65 223 2
66 222 4
67 219 6
68 218 3
69 217 1
70 215 4
71 214 1
72 213 8
73 212 1
74 211 2
75 210 1
76 209 5
77 208 8
78 206 5
79 204 1
80 203 5
81 202 5
82 201 6
83 182 2
84 181 4
85 180 3
86 178 1
87 177 4
88 176 1
89 175 5
90 174 1
91 173 2
92 172 1
93 171 3
94 170 2
95 169 9
96 168 3
97 167 2
98 166 1
99 165 1
100 164 2
101 163 5
102 162 6
103 161 3
104 160 3
105 159 1
106 157 2
107 156 1
108 155 1
109 154 2
110 153 3
111 152 6
112 151 4
113 150 1
114 148 5
115 147 1
116 144 1
117 143 1
118 142 2
119 141 1
120 140 1
121 139 1
122 138 3
123 137 79
124 136 2
125 135 6
126 134 5
127 133 74
128 131 2
129 130 1
130 127 1
131 126 1
132 125 2
133 124 1
134 120 4
135 119 1
136 118 1
137 115 3
138 114 2
139 113 1
140 112 2
141 111 3
142 110 1
143 108 1
144 107 5
145 104 3
146 103 7
147 102 1
148 101 2
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