AVReturnStatus n
1 67130
2 Challenged 656
3 Good 60794
4 Undeliverable 847
5 Void 923
If we look a little closer at the Challenges, we can see that signature challenges are probably the ballots we can cure the most. It's a shame 204 voters were late.
count(x,AVReturnChallenge,sort=TRUE)
Source: local data frame [13 x 2]
AVReturnChallenge n
1 128847
2 Undeliverable 847
3 No Signature Match 274
4 Too Late 204
5 Wrong Voter's Signature 74
6 No Signature 70
7 Letter doesn't match env. 9
8 Second Ballot Received 7
9 ID Required 6
10 Electronic 4
11 Power of Attorney 4
12 No Ballot 3
13 Z - Deceased 1
The signature issues break down as below. Note that the 274 "No Signature Match" and the 70 "No Signature" probably really deserve some attention:
arrange(as.data.frame(xtabs(~AVReturnChallenge,data=subset(x,grepl("Signature",AVReturnChallenge)))),desc(Freq))
AVReturnChallenge Freq
1 No Signature Match 274
2 Wrong Voter's Signature 74
3 No Signature 70
Most of these happened in the last few days. Probably last minute voters just in a hurry, being careless:
arrange(as.data.frame(xtabs(~AVReturnedDate,data=subset(x,grepl("Signature",AVReturnChallenge)))),desc(Freq))
AVReturnedDate Freq
1 2015-11-04 104
2 2015-11-03 102
3 2015-11-02 78
4 2015-11-05 24
5 2015-10-28 21
6 2015-10-22 20
7 2015-10-30 20
8 2015-10-26 16
9 2015-10-29 12
10 2015-10-21 11
11 2015-10-23 4
12 2015-10-20 2
13 2015-10-27 2
14 2015-10-19 1
15 2015-11-06 1
People who self identify their city as Bellingham lead the way in signature challenges:
arrange(as.data.frame(xtabs(~ ResidenceCity,data=subset(x,grepl("Signature",AVReturnChallenge)))),desc(Freq))
ResidenceCity Freq
1 Bellingham 249
2 Lynden 48
3 Ferndale 40
4 Blaine 32
5 Everson 18
6 Deming 7
7 Maple Falls 5
8 Custer 4
9 Sedro-Woolley 4
10 Sumas 4
11 Lummi Island 3
12 Pt Roberts 2
13 Acme 1
14 Nooksack 1
98225 and 98226 are urban zip codes in many parts:
arrange(as.data.frame(xtabs(~ ResidenceZipCode,data=subset(x,grepl("Signature",AVReturnChallenge)))),desc(Freq))
ResidenceZipCode Freq
1 98225 96
2 98226 92
3 98229 61
4 98264 48
5 98248 40
6 98230 32
7 98247 18
8 98244 7
9 98266 5
10 98240 4
11 98284 4
12 98295 4
13 98262 3
14 98281 2
15 98220 1
16 98276 1
So if we look at those voters since 11/02/2015 with signature problems those (voter self-identified) cities in lead are:
arrange(as.data.frame(xtabs(~ResidenceCity,data=subset(x,grepl("Signature",AVReturnChallenge)),subset=AVReturnedDate > mdy("11/02/2015"))),desc(Freq))
ResidenceCity Freq
1 Bellingham 146
2 Ferndale 24
3 Lynden 23
4 Blaine 11
5 Everson 11
6 Maple Falls 4
7 Deming 3
8 Sedro-Woolley 3
9 Lummi Island 2
10 Sumas 2
11 Nooksack 1
12 Pt Roberts 1
However, only about 45 of these recent signature problems are located in Bellingham series precincts (200 series). And certain of these precincts have more than others. I'd probably start with these precincts, since they are in dense neighborhoods:
arrange(as.data.frame(xtabs(~PrecinctID,data=subset(x,grepl("Signature",AVReturnChallenge)),subset=AVReturnedDate > mdy("11/02/2015") & PrecinctID > 199 & PrecinctID < 300)),desc(Freq))
PrecinctID Freq
1 225 6
2 213 5
3 215 4
4 243 4
5 246 4
6 247 4
7 208 3
8 219 3
9 227 3
10 228 3
11 234 3
12 237 3
13 254 3
14 260 3
15 207 2
16 209 2
17 211 2
18 216 2
19 217 2
20 224 2
21 229 2
22 230 2
23 235 2
24 239 2
25 250 2
26 256 2
27 258 2
28 263 2
29 204 1
30 206 1
31 210 1
32 214 1
33 218 1
34 220 1
35 221 1
36 222 1
37 223 1
38 226 1
39 232 1
40 236 1
41 238 1
42 241 1
43 248 1
44 249 1
45 253 1
Full list of all signature problems by precinct is below:
arrange(as.data.frame(xtabs(~ PrecinctID,data=subset(x,grepl("Signature",AVReturnChallenge)))),desc(Freq))
PrecinctID Freq
1 225 8
2 603 8
3 178 7
4 213 7
5 145 6
6 215 6
7 237 6
8 302 6
9 135 5
10 136 5
11 137 5
12 146 5
13 150 5
14 160 5
15 208 5
16 228 5
17 247 5
18 260 5
19 111 4
20 116 4
21 118 4
22 127 4
23 132 4
24 133 4
25 140 4
26 141 4
27 144 4
28 148 4
29 171 4
30 182 4
31 218 4
32 219 4
33 239 4
34 243 4
35 246 4
36 258 4
37 301 4
38 504 4
39 506 4
40 611 4
41 122 3
42 125 3
43 126 3
44 138 3
45 151 3
46 152 3
47 153 3
48 157 3
49 158 3
50 166 3
51 168 3
52 169 3
53 170 3
54 174 3
55 175 3
56 181 3
57 209 3
58 211 3
59 217 3
60 227 3
61 234 3
62 235 3
63 236 3
64 238 3
65 241 3
66 249 3
67 254 3
68 256 3
69 402 3
70 505 3
71 606 3
72 101 2
73 102 2
74 103 2
75 104 2
76 106 2
77 107 2
78 108 2
79 123 2
80 130 2
81 134 2
82 147 2
83 154 2
84 162 2
85 163 2
86 164 2
87 172 2
88 177 2
89 201 2
90 203 2
91 207 2
92 210 2
93 214 2
94 216 2
95 223 2
96 224 2
97 229 2
98 230 2
99 231 2
100 240 2
101 250 2
102 251 2
103 253 2
104 263 2
105 303 2
106 502 2
107 508 2
108 509 2
109 601 2
110 604 2
111 605 2
112 608 2
113 610 2
114 105 1
115 110 1
116 112 1
117 113 1
118 114 1
119 115 1
120 117 1
121 120 1
122 124 1
123 129 1
124 131 1
125 139 1
126 142 1
127 143 1
128 149 1
129 159 1
130 161 1
131 165 1
132 167 1
133 173 1
134 176 1
135 179 1
136 202 1
137 204 1
138 206 1
139 212 1
140 220 1
141 221 1
142 222 1
143 226 1
144 232 1
145 233 1
146 242 1
147 244 1
148 245 1
149 248 1
150 257 1
151 261 1
152 262 1
153 264 1
154 266 1
155 401 1
156 501 1
157 503 1
158 507 1
159 602 1
160 609 1
161 701 1
162 801
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