2015 Voting Analysis Under Construction: Joy vs. Jack, Jail_yes vs. Jail_no

 By precinct diffs. Those points above the horizontal blue 0 line are precincts that sided with Jack Luows. Those points left of the vertical red 0 line are precincts that voted against the jail.   (Vertical Axis: (Louws - Gilfilen) ~ Horizontal Axis ( Jail_Yes - Jail_No)) . Strong relationships are revealed between those precincts voting  more for Jack and the Jail  (far right) and those voting more for Joy and not for the Jail (bottom left).  The dense 'crook' in the middle of the graph represents those precincts still mostly totaling for Jack  Luows but very split in voting for or against the jail.  Click to enlarge.

 Far below is a table that ranks the top and bottom 15 by their yes and no votes on the Jail Bond measure. (WC_1y, WC_1n).  Included are the Louws vs. Gilfilen executive race.  The R code is here. If you need the  matchback data, email me if you are a friend.

Data in columns:

• PID = PrecinctID
• AGGR43 = row summed total  of all votes per precinct for 43 "all county" contests with at least two possible votes or candidates. This is a kind of gross measure of ballot participation rates per precinct.
• Registered = Total Registered voters
• Good = Total Good Ballots
• PCT = Good/Registered per Precinct
• PCT1 = Gilfilen / (Gilfilen + Louws)
• PCT2 = WC_1y/ (WC_ly + WC_1n)

These are 30 of the 177 precincts or 18.7% of 61,116 'good ballots' from the "Final Certified" matchback. For all 117 precincts, the correlation coefficient between those that voted yes for Joy and yes for the Jail Bond is very low.   As a reminder, a correlation coefficient shows a perfect measure of correlation at 1 and the inverse at -1. All three correlation methods in R give similar results: 

• Those precincts that voted more for Jack tended to vote more for the Jail Bond.
• Those precincts that voted more for Joy tended to vote less for the Jail Bond.

Result from R correlation coefficient for pearson, kendall, spearman methods:

• with(a1_LG1_LG2,cor(PCT1,(1 - PCT2),use="na.or.complete",method="pearson"))
• [1] 0.7212
• with(a1_LG1_LG2,cor(PCT1,(PCT2),use="na.or.complete",method="pearson"))
• [1] -0.7212
• with(a1_LG1_LG2,cor(PCT1,(1 - PCT2),use="na.or.complete",method="kendall"))
• [1] 0.5199
• with(a1_LG1_LG2,cor(PCT1,(PCT2),use="na.or.complete",method="kendall"))
• [1] -0.5199
• with(a1_LG1_LG2,cor(PCT1,(1 - PCT2),use="na.or.complete",method="spearman"))
• [1] 0.7037
• with(a1_LG1_LG2,cor(PCT1,(PCT2),use="na.or.complete",method="spearman"))
• [1] -0.7037

Despite my red/blue background colors below, all precincts in Bellingham are purple to some extent. However, these thirty precincts are less purple than others for these two issues. True to history, ten Lynden precincts showed strong support for Jack Louws and the Jail. All of the fifteen precincts with strongest percentage support against the jail can be described as core urban 200s series precincts from Bellingham.

Top and Bottom 15 Ranked by Percentage Vote (PCT2) YES on the Jail (Bond)

PID	AGGR43	Registered	Good	PCT	Louws	Gilfilen	WC_1y	WC_1n	PCT1 (yes for Joy)	PCT2 (yes on Jail)
605	5472	479	250	52.19%	209	21	173	70	9.13%	71.19%
608	8116	751	386	51.40%	313	51	257	111	14.01%	69.84%
602	9346	858	455	53.03%	374	46	305	133	10.95%	69.63%
303	9783	790	480	60.76%	299	100	330	144	25.06%	69.62%
606	8974	827	430	52.00%	340	59	285	127	14.79%	69.17%
610	10874	881	524	59.48%	430	63	344	157	12.78%	68.66%
601	13368	1058	661	62.48%	511	82	423	202	13.83%	67.68%
611	6576	605	308	50.91%	242	37	197	95	13.26%	67.47%
604	8602	858	402	46.85%	321	58	265	128	15.30%	67.43%
609	9323	927	449	48.44%	368	54	286	141	12.80%	66.98%
144	10815	865	535	61.85%	471	29	346	175	5.80%	66.41%
607	8545	704	395	56.11%	333	41	253	130	10.96%	66.06%
140	11611	1147	568	49.52%	464	67	350	203	12.62%	63.29%
401	4767	568	227	39.96%	158	49	131	76	23.67%	63.29%
301	7955	974	386	39.63%	240	108	237	140	31.03%	62.86%
222	11299	964	571	59.23%	269	191	180	360	41.52%	33.33%
256	8433	757	422	55.75%	196	152	126	268	43.68%	31.98%
210	10561	877	534	60.89%	253	182	158	337	41.84%	31.92%
223	5536	555	275	49.55%	112	113	83	181	50.22%	31.44%
225	8360	1104	418	37.86%	174	157	126	276	47.43%	31.34%
227	7574	890	377	42.36%	162	143	108	247	46.89%	30.42%
246	6357	801	321	40.07%	129	119	90	206	47.98%	30.41%
224	3095	343	148	43.15%	59	60	41	97	50.42%	29.71%
268	605	54	18	33.33%	6	10	5	12	62.50%	29.41%
215	8818	801	442	55.18%	222	144	122	306	39.34%	28.50%
247	4869	905	241	26.63%	88	96	64	165	52.17%	27.95%
226	4284	667	213	31.93%	111	61	55	142	35.47%	27.92%
257	4829	680	244	35.88%	103	82	62	161	44.32%	27.80%
258	8653	892	440	49.33%	173	170	96	311	49.56%	23.59%
228	6454	832	327	39.30%	138	115	59	242	45.45%	19.60%
Top and Bottom 15 Ranked by Percentage Vote (PCT2) YES on the Jail (Bond)
Precincts	AGGR43	Registered	Good	PCT	Louws	Gilfilen	WC_1y	WC_1n	PCT1 (yes for Joy)	PCT2 (yes on Jail)
Top 15	134127	12292	6456	52.52%	5073	865	4182	2032	14.57%	67.30%
Bottom 15	99727	11122	4991	44.88%	2195	1795	1375	3311	44.99%	29.34%