 |
| Left: Inactive Voters By Age as of 09/23/2014 Y Axis = c(0,500) Right: Active Voters as of 09/23/1014, Y Axis = c(0,1800) Blue = Whatcom County 40th LD; Red = 42nd LD ; X Axis = c(0,110) |
This will become a much larger piece quite possibly on why the "millenial" vote is the key to this year's 42nd LD election and probably the key for victory for all Democrats this fall. Clearly, the evidence will indicate that the recession has doomed large groups of millennials to rentals. They move to find better deals, forget to update their voter registration, and their ballot never arrives to their new address. The sent ballot is returned undeliverable and so onto the inactive list the renter goes and a kind of electoral apartheid is created between those who own homes and are able to keep making the payment on them and those who don't or can't.
Sure, you can argue that lack of updating voter registration to a the new address is the voter's responsibility and WA state makes that easy. But that's besides the point. You could also argue we should stop at every way four way where there isn't a STOP sign as well. How many accidents would/does such a presumption create multiplied over millions of renters, students and others on the move? It's not that the state of WA doesn't try to find moved voters (through ERIC) or that WA state doesn't make it easy for a voter to update their changed address; it is that the system creates a form of structural (age-based) apartheid by design.
More data and analysis will confirm my hypothesis. The vast differences in age between Active and Inactive voters grouped by precincts in Whatcom County is all I need for now to begin to realize the extent of the problem and the potential consequences for this year's election. Below are some counts from the 9/23 voter database. The table below ranks each of the 119 42nd precincts by the average age for active voters vs. inactive voters in each precinct separately, then sorts those precincts by the difference. Code is here.
Select count(*) from Active;
count
--------
124927
(1 row)
Select count(*) from Inactive;
count
-------
14372
(1 row)
There are 85,053 active voters in the 42nd District as of 09/23/14
- 60.2 % of those 35 or under (13813/22965) voted in one or both of 2012 or 2013 GE.
- 85.6% of those 36 or over (53175/62088) voted in one or both of the 2012 or 2013 GE.
Age statistics for LD 42nd by Precinct:
precinctid |activeaverage |inactiveaverage |diffaverage |activestddev | inactivestddev
------------+---------------+-----------------+-------------+--------------+-------------
801 | 47.1 | 40.9 | 6.3 | 18.4 | 15.0
701 | 45.6 | 37.0 | 8.6 | 18.0 | 10.5
611 | 52.1 | 47.2 | 5.0 | 20.3 | 19.4
610 | 55.9 | 43.3 | 12.6 | 20.2 | 17.8
609 | 47.8 | 45.9 | 2.0 | 18.1 | 16.3
608 | 51.6 | 39.1 | 12.6 | 20.2 | 16.9
607 | 49.7 | 43.8 | 5.9 | 18.1 | 19.1
606 | 49.7 | 44.7 | 5.0 | 19.1 | 18.8
605 | 49.4 | 41.5 | 7.9 | 17.6 | 20.5
604 | 45.1 | 43.4 | 1.7 | 17.4 | 16.3
603 | 44.5 | 36.2 | 8.4 | 16.6 | 12.9
602 | 54.7 | 48.6 | 6.1 | 21.0 | 23.4
601 | 59.0 | 46.8 | 12.2 | 20.3 | 22.6
509 | 48.5 | 45.0 | 3.5 | 17.7 | 14.5
508 | 49.0 | 43.4 | 5.6 | 18.6 | 15.7
507 | 47.6 | 41.0 | 6.6 | 16.3 | 14.9
506 | 47.2 | 39.9 | 7.3 | 18.2 | 15.8
505 | 50.1 | 41.6 | 8.5 | 19.5 | 17.4
504 | 48.2 | 37.4 | 10.8 | 17.5 | 13.5
503 | 48.2 | 40.3 | 7.9 | 16.5 | 15.2
502 | 44.6 | 35.7 | 8.9 | 15.8 | 13.8
501 | 46.0 | 37.7 | 8.3 | 16.2 | 11.1
402 | 44.1 | 40.0 | 4.1 | 16.4 | 15.0
401 | 48.8 | 43.5 | 5.3 | 18.5 | 16.2
304 | 52.4 | 42.5 | 9.9 | 19.1 | 19.7
303 | 63.0 | 52.0 | 11.0 | 14.9 | 19.0
302 | 50.5 | 44.5 | 6.0 | 17.6 | 17.0
301 | 49.1 | 44.6 | 4.4 | 17.6 | 17.8
268 | 53.6 | 36.1 | 17.5 | 17.9 | 15.1
267 | 45.2 | 44.5 | .7 | 15.9 | 14.9
234 | 52.1 | 42.0 | 10.1 | 17.4 | 14.6
233 | 46.4 | 35.3 | 11.2 | 17.1 | 13.1
229 | 41.4 | 33.4 | 8.0 | 16.2 | 11.3
227 | 45.6 | 34.9 | 10.7 | 16.3 | 14.8
225 | 43.2 | 35.0 | 8.2 | 19.1 | 13.5
224 | 44.3 | 38.1 | 6.2 | 18.1 | 13.0
223 | 42.4 | 35.4 | 7.0 | 15.4 | 12.6
222 | 48.4 | 37.3 | 11.1 | 15.9 | 14.7
221 | 51.0 | 45.5 | 5.4 | 17.8 | 19.7
220 | 45.1 | 35.8 | 9.4 | 17.5 | 12.6
219 | 47.3 | 36.7 | 10.6 | 18.9 | 12.0
218 | 51.9 | 42.6 | 9.3 | 20.0 | 19.7
217 | 57.3 | 49.6 | 7.6 | 20.3 | 21.4
216 | 45.5 | 41.3 | 4.2 | 16.3 | 18.3
215 | 45.9 | 39.0 | 6.9 | 15.5 | 16.2
214 | 47.2 | 38.3 | 9.0 | 15.8 | 15.0
213 | 55.3 | 44.6 | 10.6 | 21.5 | 22.1
212 | 49.0 | 41.3 | 7.6 | 23.9 | 21.8
211 | 51.3 | 41.6 | 9.7 | 21.2 | 19.2
210 | 46.8 | 40.0 | 6.8 | 15.8 | 17.8
209 | 49.0 | 40.3 | 8.7 | 16.6 | 13.8
208 | 47.6 | 36.7 | 10.9 | 18.5 | 15.1
207 | 49.7 | 40.8 | 8.9 | 16.5 | 13.6
206 | 44.7 | 36.7 | 8.0 | 16.9 | 13.7
205 | 50.7 | 36.4 | 14.3 | 17.9 | 10.3
204 | 43.8 | 36.3 | 7.5 | 18.7 | 16.7
203 | 52.9 | 36.4 | 16.5 | 21.1 | 15.4
202 | 60.1 | 45.3 | 14.8 | 22.1 | 20.7
201 | 52.5 | 39.2 | 13.3 | 20.5 | 18.3
183 | 48.6 | 44.3 | 4.3 | 14.0 | 15.8
167 | 53.9 | 39.2 | 14.7 | 16.4 | 14.6
166 | 50.3 | 38.7 | 11.6 | 17.1 | 15.1
165 | 49.9 | 42.7 | 7.2 | 17.4 | 15.4
158 | 51.2 | 44.6 | 6.5 | 17.3 | 17.8
157 | 47.9 | 44.0 | 3.8 | 17.0 | 14.0
156 | 51.1 | 40.2 | 10.9 | 18.4 | 16.1
155 | 52.2 | 44.0 | 8.2 | 16.8 | 15.9
154 | 52.0 | 41.3 | 10.8 | 17.0 | 13.8
153 | 50.6 | 38.0 | 12.6 | 17.5 | 16.2
152 | 51.1 | 41.2 | 9.9 | 16.8 | 16.6
151 | 49.6 | 42.3 | 7.4 | 17.2 | 16.8
150 | 50.3 | 38.2 | 12.1 | 17.2 | 15.0
149 | 50.3 | 38.3 | 12.0 | 17.1 | 12.6
148 | 48.8 | 41.4 | 7.4 | 16.5 | 16.0
147 | 49.3 | 37.1 | 12.3 | 18.0 | 14.3
146 | 48.8 | 37.5 | 11.3 | 17.3 | 14.1
145 | 55.0 | 44.1 | 10.8 | 18.4 | 16.3
144 | 49.6 | 36.6 | 13.1 | 18.3 | 14.2
143 | 50.2 | 40.0 | 10.2 | 16.0 | 11.2
142 | 46.9 | 38.4 | 8.5 | 16.5 | 13.8
141 | 49.5 | 42.4 | 7.0 | 17.5 | 16.5
140 | 47.1 | 41.5 | 5.6 | 17.8 | 17.4
139 | 45.9 | 30.6 | 15.4 | 17.7 | 9.6
138 | 58.0 | 49.9 | 8.2 | 16.7 | 17.7
137 | 47.1 | 40.7 | 6.3 | 17.3 | 15.0
136 | 47.9 | 39.7 | 8.2 | 17.7 | 15.3
135 | 48.7 | 37.9 | 10.7 | 17.9 | 15.6
134 | 51.9 | 42.8 | 9.1 | 17.6 | 16.9
133 | 48.7 | 36.8 | 11.9 | 17.8 | 14.3
132 | 49.6 | 38.8 | 10.8 | 17.4 | 14.2
131 | 52.2 | 39.5 | 12.7 | 17.4 | 13.7
130 | 49.8 | 42.4 | 7.4 | 18.3 | 14.0
129 | 51.3 | 38.9 | 12.4 | 17.1 | 13.4
127 | 50.8 | 44.8 | 6.0 | 17.4 | 16.5
126 | 54.7 | 48.2 | 6.6 | 17.4 | 16.1
125 | 48.1 | 41.2 | 6.9 | 17.6 | 17.6
124 | 51.1 | 43.0 | 8.1 | 17.2 | 14.7
123 | 51.8 | 40.3 | 11.5 | 17.4 | 18.1
122 | 51.7 | 44.1 | 7.7 | 17.6 | 18.0
121 | 49.1 | 40.7 | 8.4 | 16.6 | 14.5
120 | 50.5 | 43.5 | 6.9 | 17.0 | 20.3
119 | 54.9 | 53.2 | 1.7 | 16.3 | 16.7
118 | 47.0 | 36.6 | 10.4 | 17.0 | 14.1
117 | 47.4 | 40.8 | 6.7 | 17.6 | 16.1
116 | 46.8 | 45.2 | 1.6 | 17.3 | 16.3
115 | 51.2 | 47.1 | 4.0 | 17.0 | 15.9
114 | 51.9 | 46.0 | 5.8 | 17.0 | 15.7
113 | 52.2 | 47.5 | 4.7 | 16.9 | 17.2
112 | 50.1 | 40.4 | 9.7 | 17.3 | 17.0
111 | 50.1 | 43.6 | 6.5 | 17.1 | 15.5
110 | 50.7 | 45.4 | 5.3 | 17.4 | 15.1
108 | 46.5 | 44.9 | 1.7 | 16.5 | 14.6
107 | 56.3 | 50.3 | 6.1 | 17.6 | 19.6
106 | 50.5 | 45.8 | 4.7 | 17.5 | 16.1
105 | 55.8 | 43.8 | 12.0 | 16.7 | 15.3
104 | 61.3 | 53.1 | 8.2 | 17.3 | 19.4
103 | 58.9 | 44.5 | 14.4 | 17.6 | 17.6
102 | 54.8 | 47.9 | 6.8 | 17.0 | 16.3
101 | 57.0 | 52.5 | 4.4 | 15.9 | 17.6
No comments:
Post a Comment