How PURPLE is my precinct? Predicting Election Outcomes: Part II

"Are you discontented with the part you have been assigned in the whole? Recall the alternatives: Providence or atoms, and how many are the demonstrations, that the cosmos is a city."  Roman Emperor Marcus Aurelius as quoted here.

The 2013 General Election: The Democrat/Republican divide as seen from the cumulative precinct returns for County Council 1A, 2A, 3A races. This chart shows the classic BLUE/RED City/County split with high density Bellingham urban and near urban areas voting BLUE, while most of the county votes RED.  Click to Enlarge.

How do we define this vast "purpality" that constitutes the body politic of America?  In the middle, we agree upon so much; but as the spectrum moves both left and right, we are decidedly in conflict. This polarity has had enough of a disorganizing effect that 42% of Americans now define themselves as independent, an all time high. And yet when given the choice, precincts in a politically divided Whatcom County, WA select either Republicans or Democrats. Such was the case with the 2013 General Election. The following charts use the 2013 Whatcom County Council races 1A, 2A, and 3A as markers for BLUE vs. RED [1]

There is no intersection between the top 30 BLUE precincts and the top 30 RED precincts in Whatcom County. The top thirty BLUE precincts are remarkably Democratic; essentially all of them ~ 75% BLUE or greater. That the Republican top 30 was not quite as strong may have well assured the Democrats their victory. This is an important point for the 2014 elections, since many of the top Republican precincts are in the 42nd. 

   PrecinctBLUE    PercentageBLUE PrecinctRED     PercentageRED
1           258 0.878425860857344         139 0.865761689291101
2           257 0.861271676300578         144 0.856828193832599
3           223 0.857298474945534         604  0.83739837398374
4           246 0.852474323062558         117 0.837051406401552
5           226 0.844854070660522         116 0.819593787335723
6           252 0.844155844155844         140 0.813725490196078
7           228 0.838129496402878         611 0.807282415630551
8           222 0.838105153565851         607 0.799843014128728
9           247 0.835332606324973         609 0.794252122795558
10          210 0.834686774941995         610 0.792322215229704
11          244 0.825850340136054         118 0.783322390019698
12          256 0.824242424242424         605 0.754017305315204
13          245 0.816296296296296         125 0.753663003663004
14          215 0.813937753721245         602 0.749822820694543
15          214  0.81121187139324         606 0.744791666666667
16          224 0.804210526315789         601  0.74436503573392
17          216 0.803240740740741         608 0.742016806722689
18          267               0.8         141 0.735334242837653
19          225 0.795212765957447         115         0.7203125
20          227 0.790014684287812         603 0.714429868819374
21          251 0.789849892780558         145 0.710837185413457
22          250 0.788308740068104         120 0.702917771883289
23          262 0.779513888888889         146 0.699931647300068
24          253 0.769326683291771         401 0.691771269177127
25          209 0.767556179775281         130 0.677623261694058
26          261 0.756714060031596         701 0.675262655205349
27          259 0.755390334572491         122 0.675057208237986
28          263              0.75         124 0.672619047619048
29          180 0.749614791987673         801 0.666292134831461
30          207 0.748564867967853         155 0.664466446644664

The 2013 General Election: The Democrat/Republican divide as seen from the cumulative precinct returns for County Council 1A, 2A, 3A races: top thirty precincts for each party.

The chart below uses red/blue to demonstrate Democrat percentage (left axis) and turnout (right axis) by precinct. We can clearly see the blue turnout numbers generally rise in the Bellingham 200 series and fall in the north county; but notice that hardly all of  200 series precincts have a high (red) percentage. Nor is the turnout percentage for Democrats hopeless in the 300 - 800 series precincts. Even in the areas of each of the parties respective strengths, this chart still demonstrate a purple metric.

The inverse chart below uses red/blue to demonstrate Republican percentage (left axis) and turnout (right axis) by precinct.

The statistics below give us another look at the "purpality" of Whatcom County. By multiplying the cumulative percentage of Democrat (or Republican) votes by the Democrat (or Republican) votes for the three council races, we get a (rate * volume) metric. This highlights a little more markedly Democrat vs. Republican strong precincts. But still, a deep "purpality" runs through the county as a whole.

7/18/2014: August Primary 18-day voting period begins RCW 29A.40.070

On Friday, an eighteen day voting period for the WA primary begins. Be you red, blue or purple, please vote. Code for this post is here.

 End Notes:
[1] Using accumulated County Council 1A, 2A, 3A  races as a determinant of the BLUE/RED divide was somewhat arbitrary.  The races were county wide, however each candidate originated from the specified districts.