.The Aftermath: 2013 General Election - Why Renata K. Lost...And Why the Democrats Should Never Lose any County Wide Seat Again!

I do my best (as one solitary blogger can ) to create accurate analysis from the data I have. To be certain, you should check my work before quoting it as accurate. - RMF

This election is really providing fertile ground for data analysis. Some categorical distinctions can be made that aren't so swing vote oriented such that the precinct data becomes to 'fuzzy' to be meaningful. The tables below represent the precincts with the least turnout for the four county council and two ports seats. What strikes me  is:

• How tragically low these turnouts really are for fairly populous precincts.
• How solidly Democratic these districts should be. They are almost all Bellingham 200s except for Lummi (?)  133 and 137.
• How much the Democrats would have to gain if their ground game would have worked in these precincts.

In general, these 10 low turnout precincts sum to about 9500 registrants.  Most of them swing solidly Democratic. If the Democrats unlocked these districts in "off years", they stand to gain as much as 5000 additional votes over and above their anemic (but mostly victorious) turnouts below. Surprisingly, the lowest precinct turnouts for all six of these races are WWU precincts: 245,252,253. So much for the idea that the students steal away local Bellingham votes.

The ~55% Whatcom county turnout for this "off year" election was impressive.  But the Democrats could have actually done much better. The important take-away is that populous precincts that should tend Democratic still have many votes untapped. The Dems should go get them next time.

Precinct	PrecinctTotal	Participation	Kowalczyk	Robbins	Diff	Margin	%TO
245	1392	187	135	52	83	61.48%	13.43%
252	697	115	96	19	77	80.21%	16.50%
253	1112	240	163	77	86	52.76%	21.58%
133	979	240	142	98	44	30.99%	24.51%
230	724	211	124	87	37	29.84%	29.14%
137	976	288	183	105	78	42.62%	29.51%
231	1019	330	193	137	56	29.02%	32.38%
247	850	276	217	59	158	72.81%	32.47%
204	568	189	95	94	1	1.05%	33.27%
229	1040	361	226	135	91	40.27%	34.71%
Precinct	PrecinctTotal	Participation	McAuley	Bell	Diff	Margin	%TO
245	1392	185	126	59	67	53.17%	13.29%
252	697	115	88	27	61	69.32%	16.50%
253	1112	241	165	76	89	53.94%	21.67%
133	979	232	144	88	56	38.89%	23.70%
230	724	206	117	89	28	23.93%	28.45%
137	976	285	161	124	37	22.98%	29.20%
247	850	270	187	83	104	55.61%	31.76%
231	1019	328	201	127	74	36.82%	32.19%
204	568	189	90	99	-9	-10.00%	33.27%
101	959	333	209	124	85	40.67%	34.72%
Precinct	PrecinctTotal	Participation	Weimer	Luke	Diff	Margin	%TO
245	1392	222	184	38	146	79.35%	15.95%
252	697	126	108	18	90	83.33%	18.08%
253	1112	262	201	61	140	69.65%	23.56%
133	979	245	163	82	81	49.69%	25.03%
137	976	292	196	96	100	51.02%	29.92%
230	724	217	146	71	75	51.37%	29.97%
204	568	188	100	88	12	12.00%	33.10%
231	1019	345	235	110	125	53.19%	33.86%
247	850	301	253	48	205	81.03%	35.41%
212	468	168	91	77	14	15.38%	35.90%
Precinct	PrecinctTotal	Participation	Browne	Knutzen	Diff	Margin	%TO
245	1392	224	177	47	130	73.45%	16.09%
252	697	125	103	22	81	78.64%	17.93%
253	1112	264	197	67	130	65.99%	23.74%
133	979	247	162	85	77	47.53%	25.23%
137	976	291	193	98	95	49.22%	29.82%
230	724	223	147	76	71	48.30%	30.80%
231	1019	345	229	116	113	49.34%	33.86%
204	568	194	89	105	-16	-17.98%	34.15%
247	850	297	245	52	193	78.78%	34.94%
101	959	351	228	123	105	46.05%	36.60%
Precinct	PrecinctTotal	Participation	Buchanan	Kershner	Diff	Margin	%TO
245	1392	226	180	46	134	74.44%	16.24%
252	697	127	106	21	85	80.19%	18.22%
253	1112	263	194	69	125	64.43%	23.65%
133	979	245	154	91	63	40.91%	25.03%
137	976	292	188	104	84	44.68%	29.92%
230	724	223	145	78	67	46.21%	30.80%
204	568	191	94	97	-3	-3.19%	33.63%
231	1019	346	232	114	118	50.86%	33.95%
247	850	303	253	50	203	80.24%	35.65%
229	1040	377	260	117	143	55.00%	36.25%
Precinct	PrecinctTotal	Participation	Mann	Elenbaas	Diff	Margin	%TO
245	1392	221	181	40	141	77.90%	15.88%
252	697	126	105	21	84	80.00%	18.08%
253	1112	259	206	53	153	74.27%	23.29%
133	979	248	164	84	80	48.78%	25.33%
137	976	289	194	95	99	51.03%	29.61%
230	724	223	154	69	85	55.19%	30.80%
204	568	191	112	79	33	29.46%	33.63%
231	1019	349	265	84	181	68.30%	34.25%
247	850	304	251	53	198	78.88%	35.76%
229	1040	382	272	110	162	59.56%	36.73%