Why were San Juan and Whatcom County so resistant to the combined right wing push against Larsen? Below is what the final total will probably look like, excluding the 260 total votes from the small corner of King County that is part of second congressional. Essentially, Larsen drew even in Island and Skagit counties, San Juan (the most progressive vote in WA State), nullified his narrow loss in Snohomish (the most populous county in the 2nd Congressional), and Whatcom County assured most of his margin of victory. Since the vote drifted left as the counting continued (at least it did so in Whatcom County), we can assume Larsen benefited from high turn out.
| County | Co. T/O | Won/Loss % |
| San Juan | 80.56% | +32.12% (2933 votes) |
| Skagit | 76.28% | -.2% (94 votes) |
| Island | 76.20% | +.02% (10 votes) |
| Whatcom | 74.59% | +6.86% (5829) |
| Snohomish | 71.58% | -1.76% (2201 votes) |
| Total | +2.14% (6515 votes) |
So who were his biggest supporters in Whatcom County? First, here's the Whatcom County Totals with Larsen apparently winning 68 out of 120 Whatcom County Precincts:
| Precinct | Rick Larsen | John Koster | Total Votes | % for Larsen |
| Total | 45455 | 39626 | 85081 | 53.43% |
Here are the top ten precincts supporting Larsen by percentage. These are all Bellingham precincts with eight out of ten in the 40th State Legislative district. Additionally, almost all of these precincts are literally within site of the WWU Campus and/or traditional student housing areas.
| Precinct | Rick Larsen | John Koster | Total Votes | % for Larsen |
| 237 | 83 | 9 | 92 | 90.22% |
| 240 | 274 | 32 | 306 | 89.54% |
| 242 | 472 | 66 | 538 | 87.73% |
| 232 | 357 | 62 | 419 | 85.20% |
| 219 | 399 | 75 | 474 | 84.18% |
| 213 | 479 | 93 | 572 | 83.74% |
| 234 | 335 | 66 | 401 | 83.54% |
| 231 | 243 | 49 | 292 | 83.22% |
| 241 | 463 | 101 | 564 | 82.09% |
| 218 | 548 | 122 | 670 | 81.79% |
 |
| The purple area is Bellingham County Council Ward Five. |
| Precinct | Rick Larsen | John Koster | Total Votes | % for Larsen |
| 209 | 1106 | 833 | 1939 | 57.04% |
| 201 | 969 | 741 | 1710 | 56.67% |
| 208 | 865 | 589 | 1454 | 59.49% |
| 102 | 783 | 803 | 1586 | 49.37% |
| 206 | 777 | 184 | 961 | 80.85% |
| 109 | 741 | 811 | 1552 | 47.74% |
| 228 | 708 | 392 | 1100 | 64.36% |
| 204 | 680 | 299 | 979 | 69.46% |
| 245 | 678 | 232 | 910 | 74.51% |
| 244 | 677 | 399 | 1076 | 62.92% |
Conclusions:
Many Whatcom County residents contributed to Larsen's victory. But it looks like WWU students and Bellingham Democrats were the among the most significant contributors. If you examined Larsen's victory in Whatcom County as a greater part of the whole, Democrat strategists might conclude that the more of their core urban voters they energize, the more seats they will keep.
Congressional District 2, U.S. Representative (Partisan office, 2-year term) Island, King*, San Juan, Skagit, Snohomish*, Whatcom | ||||
| County | Candidate | Vote | Vote % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Island Last updated on 11/10 | 2:00 PM Return to top | ||||
(Prefers Republican Party) | 17,814 | 49.99 % | ||
(Prefers Democratic Party) | 17,824 | 50.01 % | ||
| Total Votes | 35,638 | 100.00% | ||
King Last updated on 11/19 | 3:27 PM Return to top | ||||
(Prefers Republican Party) | 111 | 42.69 % | ||
(Prefers Democratic Party) | 149 | 57.31 % | ||
| Total Votes | 260 | 100.00% | ||
San Juan Last updated on 11/19 | 3:28 PM Return to top | ||||
(Prefers Republican Party) | 3,100 | 33.94 % | ||
(Prefers Democratic Party) | 6,033 | 66.06 % | ||
| Total Votes | 9,133 | 100.00% | ||
Skagit Last updated on 11/17 | 3:32 PM Return to top | ||||
(Prefers Republican Party) | 23,987 | 50.10 % | ||
(Prefers Democratic Party) | 23,893 | 49.90 % | ||
| Total Votes | 47,880 | 100.00% | ||
Snohomish Last updated on 11/19 | 4:59 PM Return to top | ||||
(Prefers Republican Party) | 63,934 | 50.88 % | ||
(Prefers Democratic Party) | 61,733 | 49.12 % | ||
| Total Votes | 125,667 | 100.00% | ||
Whatcom Last updated on 11/17 | 5:07 PM Return to top | ||||
(Prefers Republican Party) | 39,626 | 46.57 % | ||
(Prefers Democratic Party) | 45,455 | 53.43 % | ||
| Total Votes | 85,081 | 100.00% | ||
Total Last updated on 11/19 | 4:59 PM Return to top | ||||
(Prefers Republican Party) | 148,572 | 48.93 % | ||
(Prefers Democratic Party) | 155,087 | 51.07 % | ||
| Total Votes | 303,659 | 100.00% | ||
1 comment:
More excellent analysis, and a refutation of the idea that votes don't count.
Now, if you could just get Whatcom's Left to finish filling out their ballots. What's the cause of that? Is Washington DC so much more important than what goes on in the Left's own backyard? It fascinates me.
I tend to think the disengagement of the Left is far more profound than the "dissatisfaction" that underlies the tea parties, the Left just doesn't make a big noise about it. A feature perhaps of being undercut too long, more than a generation, by professional centrists like Larsen.
Related, the other thing that would be interesting to know is how the vote "got out" in these strongly progressive precincts. What are the dogwhistles on the Left?
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